Meridian Energy Ltd (MEZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Meridian Energy Ltd stock A$2.44, price A$4.50, that is 45.8% below the price, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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UtilitiesAU · Home New Zealand · ISIN NZMELE0002S7
MEBroad dataNov 1, 2026
Meridian Energy Ltd
MEZ · AU
Very expensive,weak quality
Our calculation puts a fair price 46% below what the stock costs today.
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
5.0% dividend yield · Sustainable
Broad data
Quality 43/100
Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +7.2 %/yr in NZD)
Thin margins · 3.4% net margin (TTM)
Revenue last quarter 27% below a year ago.
Fair value A$2.44 · Strongly overvalued (−45.8%)
Trails peers(4/15)
Narrow moat23/100 · thin data
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Dependence on Tiwai Point smelter🚩Environmental consents for Waitaki hydro
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$3.41 – A$5.82 · fair‑value band A$1.57 – A$3.31 · the A$4.50 price screens above the A$2.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Meridian Energy Limited engages in the generation and retailing of electricity to residential, business, and industrial customers in New Zealand, Australia, and the United Kingdom.
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The company generates electricity through 7 hydro stations; 8 wind farms; and 100MW battery energy storage system, as well as grid-scale solar array. It sells electricity under the Meridian Energy and Powershop brands.
It also offers solar installation, software development, professional, and insurance services. The company was formerly known as Hydro Energy Limited. Meridian Energy Limited was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Wellington, New Zealand.
Stock analysis
Meridian Energy Ltd (MEZ) currently trades at A$4.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.44, 46% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$2.51 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$4.50 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at A$0.4700, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$1.57 (bear) to A$3.31 (bull), the price of A$4.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Meridian Energy Ltd reported revenue of 3.8B NZD in FY2026 versus 3.8B NZD in FY2022, a compound +0.5%/yr. Reported net income was 130M NZD in FY2026, compounding −26.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$11.9B (≈ $8.4B) Mid · P/E ratio 113.9 · P/S ratio 3.81 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0395 · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin 3.4% · Return on equity 1.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 23 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −52% fair-value upside, at −46%, MEZ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$1.57Fair Value A$2.44BullA$3.31
Price A$4.50 · Downside -45.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.74/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.2% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+11.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−21.7% vs −4.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 21%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in NZD, New Zealand: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.8% a year for the price and +6.7% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Established hydro operations offer scale yet sustained net losses and negative equity returns point to limited durable advantage in a regulated renewable utility setting.
Main risk: Loss of or renegotiation with the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter, which consumes a large share of Meridian's hydro output under contracts to 2044, could reduce demand for its generation and pressure margins.
Bull case: Meridian could secure additional long-term offtake agreements with new large industrial users and leverage its hydro flexibility plus storage to maintain stable cash flows despite regulatory conditions.
Bear case: If the Tiwai contract ends early or consents impose stricter limits without offsetting demand growth, Meridian might face sustained lower utilisation of its hydro assets and reduced ability to fund upgrades or new projects.
Meridian plans to spend hundreds of millions over the next decade replacing turbines and equipment at its 92-year-old Waitaki hydro station to lift capacity and extend its life. Most of the outlay counts as repowering capex, leaving the company's near-term guidance intact while the plant keeps running. Will those upgrades generate stronger long-term cash flows than equivalent spending on new renewable projects?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 200 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Above median
Fair Value upside−45.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)1.4% · Below median
Return on assets0.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)−6.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−27.3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)5.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.19× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)113.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.49× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)3.81× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow26.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA21.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.79× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 16
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 15
PAST (return on equity)6· sector 13
HEALTH (low debt)91· sector 70
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 48
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Meridian Energy Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MEZ
Frequently asked questions
Is Meridian Energy Ltd (MEZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$2.44 versus a price of A$4.50, about 46% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MEZ?
Our model-based fair value for Meridian Energy Ltd is A$2.44 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$4.50.
What is the quality score of MEZ?
Meridian Energy Ltd has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Meridian Energy Ltd (MEZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$2.44 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$1.57, optimistic scenario A$3.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Meridian Energy Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$2.44, about 46% lower versus a price of A$4.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$1.57, optimistic scenario A$3.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Meridian Energy Ltd (MEZ)?
Meridian Energy Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.9B NZD (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Meridian Energy Ltd pay a dividend?
Meridian Energy Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 5.00% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Meridian Energy Ltd (MEZ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Meridian Energy Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +12.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.6 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MEZ use?
Our models discount Meridian Energy Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.44, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Meridian Energy Ltd that is +12.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Meridian Energy Ltd (MEZ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Meridian Energy Ltd grew -0.6 % a year. The price currently implies +12.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Meridian Energy Ltd (MEZ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Meridian Energy Ltd (+12.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Meridian Energy Ltd (MEZ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.81 %: that much free cash flow Meridian Energy Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Meridian Energy Ltd (MEZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Meridian Energy Ltd it is A$2.44 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of A$4.50. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Meridian Energy Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, MEZ trades above its calculated fair value: price A$4.50, fair value A$2.44, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MEZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$4.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$2.44). For Meridian Energy Ltd the two are A$2.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Meridian Energy Ltd worth?
The market values Meridian Energy Ltd at about A$11.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is A$4.50; our models calculate a fair value of A$2.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MEZ?
Our models span a range for Meridian Energy Ltd: cautious scenario A$1.57, base A$2.44, optimistic A$3.31 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price A$4.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MEZ?
Meridian Energy Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 113.9 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$2.44 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 47.7 (reported 113.9). Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 1.5, P/S 3.8, EV/EBITDA 21.0.
What is the PEG ratio of MEZ?
The PEG ratio of Meridian Energy Ltd is 0.79 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Meridian Energy Ltd (MEZ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Meridian Energy Ltd (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 1.4%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MEZ from its 52-week high?
Meridian Energy Ltd trades at A$4.50, about 12% below its 52-week high of A$5.12 and 7% above the low of A$4.21 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$2.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Meridian Energy Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, VERBUND AG, Ørsted A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Meridian Energy Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price A$4.50, calculated fair value A$2.44 (−46%), Quality Score 43/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MEZ calculated?
We run Meridian Energy Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$2.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Meridian Energy Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Meridian Energy Ltd (MEZ)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was A$4.50. Our model-based fair value is A$2.44, about 46% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Meridian Energy Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$3.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (A$1.57 to A$3.31) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Meridian Energy Ltd (MEZ) come from?
Earnings per share at Meridian Energy Ltd grew +3.0 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.0 %, EBIT margin +2.8 %, tax rate −0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Meridian Energy Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Meridian Energy Ltd (MEZ)?
The market capitalisation of Meridian Energy Ltd is A$11.9B (≈ $8.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Meridian Energy Ltd (MEZ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Meridian Energy Ltd is 3.81 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Meridian Energy Ltd (MEZ)?
Earnings per share at Meridian Energy Ltd are A$0.0395 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 113.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Meridian Energy Ltd (MEZ)?
The dividend yield of Meridian Energy Ltd is 5.0% (payout 121%, on adjusted earnings, reported 289%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Meridian Energy Ltd (MEZ)?
The net margin of Meridian Energy Ltd is 3.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Meridian Energy Ltd (MEZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Meridian Energy Ltd is 1.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Meridian Energy Ltd (MEZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Meridian Energy Ltd is 5.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Meridian Energy Ltd (MEZ)?
The operating margin of Meridian Energy Ltd is −6.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Meridian Energy Ltd (MEZ)?
Revenue at Meridian Energy Ltd is growing −27.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Meridian Energy Ltd (MEZ)?
Earnings per share at Meridian Energy Ltd are growing −5.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Meridian Energy Ltd (MEZ) carry?
The net debt of Meridian Energy Ltd is 1.5B NZD (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026