Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (MFI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Maple Leaf Foods Inc. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Consumer Defensive · CA · Market cap C$3.4B (≈ $2.4B) · ISIN CA5649051078
At a glance
MLMaple Leaf Foods Inc.MFI · TO
PriceC$26.32
Fair ValueC$43.87
Upside+66.7%
Quality61/100
A solid business, trading 40% below our fair value of C$43.87.
As of Aug 20, 2026, the fair value of Maple Leaf Foods Inc. is C$43.87 per share against a price of C$26.32, so the fair value sits 67% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −1.9 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 13.6% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·11.08% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/12)
!Moderate moat 45/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 20 out of 100
Evidence: MediumRange C$30.72 to C$57.03
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Share price −7.2% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The price is below even our cautious bear case (C$30.72). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
A fairly wide model range (C$30.72 to C$57.03) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$14.26 – C$31.54 · fair‑value band C$30.72 – C$57.03 · the C$26.32 price screens below the C$43.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (MFI) currently trades at C$26.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$43.87, implying the stock looks roughly 40.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$69.16 per share, and 13 of the 22 models we run sit above the C$26.32 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$7.11, and 9 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Maple Leaf Foods Inc. generated revenue of C$4.0B at a net margin of 13.6%. Revenue grew 6.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.1%. Net debt stands at C$1.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Scenario range: C$30.72 (bear) to C$57.03 (bull), the price of C$26.32 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 67%, MFI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio46.2
P/S ratio6.39P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)C$0.5700price ÷ EPS = P/E 46.2
Dividend yield11.1%
Net margin13.8%FY2025
Return on equity5.1%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)4.1%avg 5y
Operating margin8.0%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)C$4.0BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+6.2%3y avg −6.2%
EPS growth (YoY)−10.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flowC$310MFY2025
Net debtC$1.1BFY2025 · ≈ 3.5 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality61/100
Of which business quality 59
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Profitability73
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow43
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength41
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility71
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum34
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance64
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Maple Leaf Foods Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a protein-focused consumer packaged goods company in Canada, the United States, Japan, Korea, the Philippines, China, and internationally.
Full company description
Maple Leaf Foods Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a protein-focused consumer packaged goods company in Canada, the United States, Japan, Korea, the Philippines, China, and internationally. It offers fresh and frozen poultry, bacon, hams, wieners, meat snacks, a variety of delicatessen products, specialty sausages, a line of cooked meats, sliced meats, cooked sausage products, lunch kits, and canned meats; processed chicken products comprising fully cooked chicken breasts and wings; and a range of plant-based products, including tempeh and plant-based chicken, sausages, wieners, bacon, grounds, burgers, deli meat, cheeses, and frozen appetizers under the Maple Leaf, Maple Leaf Prime, Schneiders, Mina, Greenfield Natural Meat Co., Fantino & Mondello, Grab'N Snack, Lunch Mate, LightLife, Field Roast, Chao, Swift Premium, Hygrade, Mitchell's Gourmet, Larsen, and Shopsy's brands, as well as private label brands. The company was founded in 1836 and is headquartered in Mississauga, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Maple Leaf Foods Inc. reported revenue of C$3.9B in FY2025 versus C$4.5B in FY2021, a compound −3.5%/yr. Reported net income was C$542M in FY2025, compounding +51.5%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
C$3.9B
Latest YoY
−20.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−6.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (30Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.8%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+49.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+38.8%
Dividend yield11.1%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 38.8% vs 10Y 12.4%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4.5% (2020) → 6.9% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop342% (2022) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in CAD
Revenue−3.5%/yr
FY21C$4.5B
FY22C$4.7B
FY23C$4.9B
FY24C$4.9B
FY25C$3.9B
Net income+51.5%/yr
FY21C$103M
FY22−C$312M
FY23−C$125M
FY24C$96.6M
FY25C$542M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2025)+13.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share+4.4 %
of which total revenue +3.2 % · buybacks/dilution +1.2 %
EBIT margin+3.2 %
Tax rate+1.7 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)+3.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside+65% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Below median
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)11.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.86× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)46.2× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF8.3× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.88× · Pricier than median
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Maple Leaf Foods Inc. deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years+1.9 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years-1.9 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+2.9 %
FCF yield on price9.25 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models9.2 %
The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE100· sector 24
FUTURE31· sector 19
PAST20· sector 29
HEALTH57· sector 97
DIVIDEND100· sector 53
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
Is Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (MFI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$43.87 versus a price of C$26.32, about +67% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MFI?
Our model-based fair value for Maple Leaf Foods Inc. is C$43.87 (as of Aug 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$26.32.
What is the quality score of MFI?
Maple Leaf Foods Inc. has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (MFI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$43.87 (as of Aug 20, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$30.72, optimistic scenario C$57.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Maple Leaf Foods Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$43.87, about +67% upside versus a price of C$26.32 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$30.72, optimistic scenario C$57.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (MFI)?
Maple Leaf Foods Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$4.0B (latest available figure, as of Aug 20, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MFI?
The net profit margin of Maple Leaf Foods Inc. is about 13.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 13.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Maple Leaf Foods Inc. pay a dividend?
Maple Leaf Foods Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 11.08% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 20, 2026).
What growth is priced into Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (MFI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Maple Leaf Foods Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +1.9 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.2 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.9 % per year. As of Aug 20, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MFI use?
Our models discount Maple Leaf Foods Inc. at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.89, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (MFI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Maple Leaf Foods Inc. it is C$43.87 per share (as of Aug 20, 2026), against a price of C$26.32. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Maple Leaf Foods Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Aug 20, 2026, MFI trades below its calculated fair value: price C$26.32, fair value C$43.87, a gap of about +67% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MFI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$26.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$43.87). For Maple Leaf Foods Inc. the two are C$17.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Maple Leaf Foods Inc. worth?
The market values Maple Leaf Foods Inc. at about C$3.4B (market capitalisation, as of Aug 20, 2026). Per share that is C$26.32; our models calculate a fair value of C$43.87 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MFI?
Our models span a range for Maple Leaf Foods Inc.: cautious scenario C$30.72, base C$43.87, optimistic C$57.03 per share (as of Aug 20, 2026, price C$26.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MFI?
Maple Leaf Foods Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 46.2 (as of Aug 20, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$43.87 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.9.
What is the PEG ratio of MFI?
The PEG ratio of Maple Leaf Foods Inc. is 1.88 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Aug 20, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (MFI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (as of Aug 20, 2026): return on equity 5.1%, debt of 0.86 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MFI from its 52-week high?
Maple Leaf Foods Inc. trades at C$26.32, about 17% below its 52-week high of C$31.87 and 20% above the low of C$22.00 (as of Aug 20, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$43.87 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Maple Leaf Foods Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Nestlé India Limited, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Maple Leaf Foods Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Aug 20, 2026: price C$26.32, calculated fair value C$43.87 (+67%), Quality Score 61/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MFI calculated?
We run Maple Leaf Foods Inc. through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$43.87, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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