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Maas Group Holdings Ltd (MGH) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Maas Group Holdings Ltd A$3.39, price A$6.43, upside -47.3%, quality 32 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Industrials · AU · ISIN AU0000118564

MG Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Maas Group Holdings Ltd

MGH · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value A$3.39 · Strongly overvalued (−47%)
!Quality 32/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +40.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·1.09% dividend yield
!Trails peers (5/14)
!Moderate moat 45/100
!The models disagree: range A$1.99 to A$6.93
!Weak on dividend: 22 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

A$6.43 A$2.13 Fair Value A$3.39 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$2.13 – A$6.43 · fair‑value band A$1.99 – A$6.93 · the A$6.43 price screens above the A$3.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

MAAS Group Holdings Limited, together with subsidiaries, engages in the provision of construction materials to the civil infrastructure, renewable energy, building and construction, and mining sectors. It operates through Construction Materials, Civil Construction and Hire, Residential Real Estate, Commercial Real Estate, and Manufacturing segments.

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MAAS Group Holdings Limited, together with subsidiaries, engages in the provision of construction materials to the civil infrastructure, renewable energy, building and construction, and mining sectors. It operates through Construction Materials, Civil Construction and Hire, Residential Real Estate, Commercial Real Estate, and Manufacturing segments. The Construction Materials segment supplies quarry materials, aggregates, and pre-mix concrete; offers mobile crushing and screening services for quarries, civil works, and mining; provides geotechnical services, including geological engineering, drilling, and testing; transport and logistics services; asphalt services; and quarry excavation services. The Civil Construction and Hire segment engages in the construction of civil infrastructure, roads, dams, renewables, and mining infrastructure, as well as provides electrical infrastructure, transmission and distribution, communications, and specialised services. The Residential Real Estate segment develops, invests, builds, and sells residential land and housing properties. The Commercial Real Estate segment builds and constructs commercial and industrial properties; supplies building products; and invests in commercial real estate properties. The Manufacturing segment manufactures, sells, and distributes underground construction and mining equipment and parts. It markets its products in Australia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Mongolia, Papua New Guinea, South Africa, United Kingdom, United States of America, and New Zealand. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Dubbo, Australia.

Stock analysis

Maas Group Holdings Ltd (MGH) currently trades at A$6.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.39, implying the stock looks roughly 89.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$9.12 per share, and 5 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$6.43 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$1.62, and 19 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: A$1.99 (bear) to A$6.93 (bull), the price of A$6.43 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Maas Group Holdings Ltd reported revenue of A$1.0B in FY2024 versus A$273M in FY2020, a compound +39.4%/yr. Reported net income was A$72.0M in FY2024, compounding +20.1%/yr from FY2020.

Key figures

Market cap A$2.2B (≈ $1.6B) · P/E ratio 29.2 · P/S ratio 2.04 · EPS (TTM) A$0.2200 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 7.0% · Return on equity 9.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −47%, MGH screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$1.99 Fair Value A$3.39 Bull A$6.93
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2024 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.1500 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income A$1.91 A$2.01 A$2.13 74
Growth DCF A$0.6500 A$2.27 A$4.82 69
FCF DCF A$0.8000 A$1.89 A$5.16 68
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF A$0.8000 A$1.89 A$5.16 68
Owner Earnings A$3.06 A$8.03 A$17.25 68
5Y Revenue Exit A$1.07 A$3.12 A$7.41 63
5Y EBITDA Exit A$2.26 A$5.53 A$11.95 66
5Y P/E Exit A$1.35 A$5.02 A$10.03 63
10Y Revenue Exit A$0.8900 A$4.03 A$6.10 62
10Y EBITDA Exit A$1.79 A$6.38 A$14.54 59
10Y P/E Exit A$1.18 A$4.60 A$10.22 55
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd A$1.35 A$9.44 A$13.25 61
Lynch FV A$4.88 A$6.97 A$9.06 59
PEG = 1.0 A$4.88 A$6.97 A$9.06 55
EPV n/a A$0.1600 A$0.3300 68
Multiples
P/E Multiple A$3.14 A$4.18 A$5.23 63
P/S Multiple A$2.54 A$3.39 A$4.23 58
P/B Multiple A$2.54 A$3.39 A$4.23 55
EV/EBIT A$1.98 A$3.17 A$4.35 64
EV/EBITDA A$2.88 A$4.36 A$5.84 66
EV/Revenue A$0.9600 A$2.05 A$3.14 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$1.21 A$1.62 A$2.42 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF A$0.6500 A$2.27 A$4.82 69
Rev-Margin DCF A$1.35 A$3.79 A$8.88 63
Economic Profit
Residual Income A$1.91 A$2.01 A$2.13 74
ROIC Compounder n/a A$0.1600 A$0.3300 65
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E A$6.38 A$9.12 A$11.85 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 39
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 28
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 42
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 31
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 59
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 75
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 92
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 21
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 68/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.7%
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+57.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+22.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 10%

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+38.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +34.5% a year for the price and +2.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2025 (sales)+5.7%
Forecast 2026 (sales)+5.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+5.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)+5.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.6%

MGH screens 90% overvalued. Compare with Quanta Services, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 836 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −47% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 35% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.77× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 29.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.81× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.31× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 49.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 11.3× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 11
PAST (return on equity)38 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)62 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)22 · sector 41

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Larsen & Toubro Limited LT ₹3,930 ₹1,994 −49%
Ferrovial N.V FER $56.30 $24.01 −57%
Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 367,000 KRW 256,792 KRW −30%
HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft HOT €403.60 €203.87 −49%
ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios, S.A ACS €95.95 €75.04 −22%
EMCOR Group EME $756.50 $521.87 −31%
MasTec, Inc MTZ $221.69 $106.05 −52%

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Maas Group Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
A$3.39 −90%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Maas Group Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MGH

Frequently asked questions

Is Maas Group Holdings Ltd (MGH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$3.39 versus a price of A$6.43, about −47% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MGH?
Our model-based fair value for Maas Group Holdings Ltd is A$3.39 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$6.43.
What is the quality score of MGH?
Maas Group Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Maas Group Holdings Ltd (MGH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$3.39 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$1.99, optimistic scenario A$6.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Maas Group Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$3.39, about −47% upside versus a price of A$6.43 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$1.99, optimistic scenario A$6.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Maas Group Holdings Ltd (MGH)?
Maas Group Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$1.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Maas Group Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Maas Group Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.09% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Maas Group Holdings Ltd (MGH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Maas Group Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +38.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +40.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MGH use?
Our models discount Maas Group Holdings Ltd at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.39, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Maas Group Holdings Ltd that is +38.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Maas Group Holdings Ltd (MGH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Maas Group Holdings Ltd grew +40.7 % a year. The price currently implies +38.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Maas Group Holdings Ltd (MGH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Maas Group Holdings Ltd (+38.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Maas Group Holdings Ltd (MGH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.43 %: that much free cash flow Maas Group Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Maas Group Holdings Ltd (MGH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Maas Group Holdings Ltd it is A$3.39 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of A$6.43. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Maas Group Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MGH trades above its calculated fair value: price A$6.43, fair value A$3.39, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MGH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$6.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$3.39). For Maas Group Holdings Ltd the two are A$3.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Maas Group Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Maas Group Holdings Ltd at about A$2.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is A$6.43; our models calculate a fair value of A$3.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MGH?
Our models span a range for Maas Group Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario A$1.99, base A$3.39, optimistic A$6.93 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price A$6.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MGH?
Maas Group Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$3.39 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 11.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Maas Group Holdings Ltd (MGH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Maas Group Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.5%, debt of 0.77 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MGH from its 52-week high?
Maas Group Holdings Ltd trades at A$6.43, at its 52-week high of A$6.43 and 60% above the low of A$4.02 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$3.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Maas Group Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Maas Group Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price A$6.43, calculated fair value A$3.39 (−47%), Quality Score 32/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MGH calculated?
We run Maas Group Holdings Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$3.39, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Maas Group Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Maas Group Holdings Ltd (MGH)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$6.43. Our model-based fair value is A$3.39, about −47% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Maas Group Holdings Ltd right now?
Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (A$1.99 to A$6.93). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Key figures of Maas Group Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Maas Group Holdings Ltd (MGH)?
The market capitalisation of Maas Group Holdings Ltd is A$2.2B (≈ $1.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Maas Group Holdings Ltd (MGH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Maas Group Holdings Ltd is 2.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Maas Group Holdings Ltd (MGH)?
Earnings per share at Maas Group Holdings Ltd are A$0.2200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Maas Group Holdings Ltd (MGH)?
The dividend yield of Maas Group Holdings Ltd is 1.1% (payout 31.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Maas Group Holdings Ltd (MGH)?
The net margin of Maas Group Holdings Ltd is 7.0% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Maas Group Holdings Ltd (MGH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Maas Group Holdings Ltd is 9.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Maas Group Holdings Ltd (MGH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Maas Group Holdings Ltd is 7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Maas Group Holdings Ltd (MGH)?
The operating margin of Maas Group Holdings Ltd is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Maas Group Holdings Ltd (MGH)?
Revenue at Maas Group Holdings Ltd is growing +34.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Maas Group Holdings Ltd (MGH)?
Earnings per share at Maas Group Holdings Ltd are growing +10.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Maas Group Holdings Ltd (MGH) carry?
The net debt of Maas Group Holdings Ltd is A$698M (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 21.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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