Millennium Group (MGIH) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $17.0M

Below-average quality, and screening another 45% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• A fairly wide model range ($0.5600 to $1.05) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (3 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

40‑month range $0.9500 – $3.21 · fair‑value band $0.5600 – $1.05 · the $1.53 price screens above the $0.8400 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

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Analysis

Millennium Group (MGIH) currently trades at $1.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.8400, implying the stock looks roughly 44.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, Millennium Group generated revenue of $25.3M at a net margin of -24.9%. Revenue declined 24.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -22.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $4.3M. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $0.5600 (bear case) to $1.05 (bull case); at $1.53, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -45%, MGIH screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Millennium Group International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides paper-based packaging solutions in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, rest of Southeast Asian countries, Australia, the United States, and internationally.

Full company description

Millennium Group International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides paper-based packaging solutions in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, rest of Southeast Asian countries, Australia, the United States, and internationally. It offers paper packaging products, including raw papers, kraft papers, cardboards, and carton papers or corrugated paperboards for footwear products, sportswear, cookware and kitchenware, smartphones, home electronics, food and beverage, paper and packaging, non-food-and-beverage-consumables, logistics, and e-commerce industries. The company also provides packaging products supply chain management solutions, and board games and various board game accessories; and book production services, such as cover design and interior layout, printing, and binding services. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Kwun Tong, Hong Kong. Millennium Group International Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of YC 1926 (BVI) Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Millennium Group reported revenue of $25.3M in FY2025 versus $64.6M in FY2021, a compound −20.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$6.3M in FY2025.

MGIH screens 45% overvalued. Compare with Stora Enso Oyj →

Peer Group

Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.