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Millennium Group International Holdings Limited (MGIH) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Millennium Group International Holdings Limited $0.84, price $1.50, upside -44.0%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · US · ISIN KYG6169A1040

MG Millennium Group International Holdings Limited logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Millennium Group International Holdings Limited

MGIH · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $0.8400 · Strongly overvalued (−44%)
!Quality 42/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −16.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -24.9% net margin (TTM)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/9)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$3.21 $0.9500 Fair Value $0.8400 Apr 2023 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

42‑month range $0.9500 – $3.21 · fair‑value band $0.5600 – $1.05 · the $1.50 price screens above the $0.8400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Millennium Group International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides paper-based packaging solutions in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, rest of Southeast Asian countries, Australia, the United States, and internationally.

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Millennium Group International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides paper-based packaging solutions in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, rest of Southeast Asian countries, Australia, the United States, and internationally. It offers paper packaging products, including raw papers, kraft papers, cardboards, and carton papers or corrugated paperboards for footwear products, sportswear, cookware and kitchenware, smartphones, home electronics, food and beverage, paper and packaging, non-food-and-beverage-consumables, logistics, and e-commerce industries. The company also provides packaging products supply chain management solutions, and board games and various board game accessories; and book production services, such as cover design and interior layout, printing, and binding services. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Kwun Tong, Hong Kong. Millennium Group International Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of YC 1926 (BVI) Limited.

Stock analysis

Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares (MGIH) currently trades at $1.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.8400, implying the stock looks roughly 78.6% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.5600 (bear) to $1.05 (bull), the price of $1.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares reported revenue of $25.3M in FY2025 versus $64.6M in FY2021, a compound −20.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$6.3M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $16.9M · P/S ratio 0.67 · EPS (TTM) $−0.5600 · Net margin −24.9% · Return on equity −22.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.8% · Operating margin −28.9% · Revenue (TTM) $25.3M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −44%, MGIH screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.5600 Fair Value $0.8400 Bull $1.05
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $1.11 $1.48 $2.21 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.11 $1.48 $2.21 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27

Profitability 14
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 23
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 72
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 89
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 34
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 10
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−34.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−27.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
9.0% (2020) → −23.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

MGIH screens 79% overvalued. Compare with Smurfit Westrock Plc, →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −44% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −25% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −29% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −24% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.68× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.67× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Smurfit Westrock Plc, SW $46.45 $29.84 −36%
Packaging Corporation PKG $240.98 $129.76 −46%
International Paper Company IP $35.70 $21.44 −40%
Ball Corporation BALL $59.97 $47.41 −21%
Crown Holdings CCK $109.64 $118.59 +8%
Avery Dennison Corporation AVY $172.09 $123.89 −28%
Stora Enso Oyj STEAV €10.95 €9.69 −12%
SIG Group SIGN CHF 13.47 CHF 9.54 −29%
Sonoco Products Company SON $50.69 $61.99 +22%
Reynolds Consumer Products Inc REYN $22.17 $20.00 −10%

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$0.8400 −79%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MGIH

Frequently asked questions

Is Millennium Group International Holdings Limited (MGIH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.8400 versus a price of $1.50, about −44% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MGIH?
Our model-based fair value for Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares is $0.8400 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.50.
What is the quality score of MGIH?
Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Millennium Group International Holdings Limited (MGIH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.8400 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.5600, optimistic scenario $1.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.8400, about −44% upside versus a price of $1.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.5600, optimistic scenario $1.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Millennium Group International Holdings Limited (MGIH)?
Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $25.3M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Millennium Group International Holdings Limited (MGIH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares it is $0.8400 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $1.50. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MGIH trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.50, fair value $0.8400, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MGIH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.8400). For Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares the two are $0.6600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares worth?
The market values Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares at about $16.9M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $1.50; our models calculate a fair value of $0.8400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MGIH?
Our models span a range for Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares: cautious scenario $0.5600, base $0.8400, optimistic $1.05 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $1.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Millennium Group International Holdings Limited (MGIH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −22.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MGIH from its 52-week high?
Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares trades at $1.50, about 40% below its 52-week high of $2.51 and 21% above the low of $1.24 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.8400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $1.50, calculated fair value $0.8400 (−44%), Quality Score 42/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MGIH calculated?
We run Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.8400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Millennium Group International Holdings Limited (MGIH)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $1.50. Our model-based fair value is $0.8400, about −44% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.5600 to $1.05) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares

How large is the market capitalisation of Millennium Group International Holdings Limited (MGIH)?
The market capitalisation of Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares is $16.9M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Millennium Group International Holdings Limited (MGIH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares is 0.67 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Millennium Group International Holdings Limited (MGIH)?
Earnings per share at Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares are $−0.5600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Millennium Group International Holdings Limited (MGIH)?
The net margin of Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares is −24.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Millennium Group International Holdings Limited (MGIH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares is −22.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Millennium Group International Holdings Limited (MGIH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares is −3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Millennium Group International Holdings Limited (MGIH)?
The operating margin of Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares is −28.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Millennium Group International Holdings Limited (MGIH)?
Revenue at Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares is growing −24.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −27.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Millennium Group International Holdings Limited (MGIH)?
Earnings per share at Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares are growing −50.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Millennium Group International Holdings Limited (MGIH) generate?
The free cash flow of Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares is −$3.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Millennium Group International Holdings Limited (MGIH) hold?
Millennium Group International Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares holds more cash than debt, $4.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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