Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk IDR 403, price IDR 262, upside +53.8%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 146.82 IDR – 485.02 IDR · fair‑value band 226.48 IDR – 620.49 IDR · the 262.00 IDR price screens below the 402.87 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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PT Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk engages in the retail trading in Indonesia. The company operates through Food, Fresh Food, and Non-Food segments. It engages in retail of consumer products and trading through minimarket networks under the Alfamidi brand; supermarket network under the Alfamidi super; and fruit store network under the Midi Fresh brand.
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PT Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk engages in the retail trading in Indonesia. The company operates through Food, Fresh Food, and Non-Food segments. It engages in retail of consumer products and trading through minimarket networks under the Alfamidi brand; supermarket network under the Alfamidi super; and fruit store network under the Midi Fresh brand. The company was formerly known as PT Midimart Utama. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Tangerang, Indonesia. PT Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk.
Stock analysis
Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI) currently trades at 262.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 402.87 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 35.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 1,085 IDR per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the 262.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 91.01 IDR, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 226.48 IDR (bear) to 620.49 IDR (bull), the price of 262.00 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk reported revenue of 20.6T IDR in FY2025 versus 13.6T IDR in FY2021, a compound +11.0%/yr. Reported net income was 792B IDR in FY2025, compounding +30.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 8.8T IDR (≈ $876M) · P/E ratio 10.1 · P/S ratio 0.39 · EPS (TTM) 25.96 IDR · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 3.8% · Return on equity 18.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 54%, MIDI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 226.48 IDRFair Value 402.87 IDRBull 620.49 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (18.99 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.2% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+82.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+11.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.29% vs 18%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.6% a year for the price and +5.4% for the forecasts.
Compare Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside+54% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)19% · Above median
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.6% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MIDI
Frequently asked questions
Is Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 402.87 IDR versus a price of 262.00 IDR, about +54% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MIDI?
Our model-based fair value for Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk is 402.87 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 262.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of MIDI?
Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 402.87 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 226.48 IDR, optimistic scenario 620.49 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 402.87 IDR, about +54% upside versus a price of 262.00 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 226.48 IDR, optimistic scenario 620.49 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI)?
Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 21.0T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk pay a dividend?
Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.61% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +8.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MIDI use?
Our models discount Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk that is +8.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk grew +10.3 % a year. The price currently implies +8.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (+8.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.85 %: that much free cash flow Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk it is 402.87 IDR per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 262.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MIDI trades below its calculated fair value: price 262.00 IDR, fair value 402.87 IDR, a gap of about +54% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MIDI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (262.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (402.87 IDR). For Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk the two are 140.87 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk worth?
The market values Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk at about 8.8T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 262.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 402.87 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MIDI?
Our models span a range for Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk: cautious scenario 226.48 IDR, base 402.87 IDR, optimistic 620.49 IDR per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 262.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MIDI?
Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 402.87 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 1.9, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 5.3.
What is the PEG ratio of MIDI?
The PEG ratio of Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk is 0.90 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 18.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MIDI from its 52-week high?
Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk trades at 262.00 IDR, about 40% below its 52-week high of 434.15 IDR and 5% above the low of 249.73 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 402.87 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 262.00 IDR, calculated fair value 402.87 IDR (+54%), Quality Score 55/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MIDI calculated?
We run Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 402.87 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk currently trades 54 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 262.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 402.87 IDR, about +54% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk right now?
The model range is unusually wide (226.48 IDR to 620.49 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI) come from?
Earnings per share at Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk grew +15.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.7 %, EBIT margin −2.2 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +6.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI)?
The market capitalisation of Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk is 8.8T IDR (≈ $876M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk is 0.39 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI)?
Earnings per share at Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk are 25.96 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI)?
The dividend yield of Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk is 2.6% (payout 26.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI)?
The net margin of Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk is 3.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk is 18.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk is 8.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI)?
The operating margin of Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI)?
Revenue at Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk is growing +6.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI)?
Earnings per share at Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk are growing +39.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI) hold?
Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk holds more cash than debt, 15.9B IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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