Minera Valparaiso S.A. (MINERA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Minera Valparaiso S.A. CLP 17,772, price CLP 10,790, upside +64.7%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 6,280 CLP – 14,930 CLP · fair‑value band 12,440 CLP – 17,772 CLP · the 10,790 CLP price screens below the 17,772 CLP fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Minera Valparaiso S.A., an investment company, engages in the production of electrical energy.
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Minera Valparaiso S.A., an investment company, engages in the production of electrical energy. The company is involved in the transportation, distribution, supply, and commercialization of electric power; sale of natural gas to industrial processes or degeneration; and administration, operation, and maintenance of hydraulic works, electrical, and central systems power generators. It also produces wood, pulp, packaging products, papers, tissue products, and personal care products; and leases its properties. The company was formerly known as Sociedad Fábrica de Cemento El Melón S.A. and changed its name to Minera Valparaíso S.A. in 1969. Minera Valparaiso S.A. was incorporated in 1906 and is based in Santiago, Chile.
Stock analysis
Minera Valparaiso S.A. (MINERA) currently trades at 10,790 CLP, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 17,772 CLP, implying the stock looks roughly 39.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 22,049 CLP per share, and 11 of the 19 models we run sit above the 10,790 CLP price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 2,672 CLP, and 8 of the 19 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 12,440 CLP (bear) to 17,772 CLP (bull), the price of 10,790 CLP sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Minera Valparaiso S.A. reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +2.6%/yr. Reported net income was $169M in FY2025, compounding −21.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.3T CLP (≈ $1.3B) · P/E ratio 8.9 · P/S ratio 0.94 · EPS (TTM) 1,209 CLP · Net margin 10.6% · Return on equity 4.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.2% · Operating margin 21.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 65%, MINERA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 12,440 CLPFair Value 17,772 CLPBull 17,772 CLP
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (884.70 CLP per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.3% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−3.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 21%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 210 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Above median
Fair Value upside+65% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)21% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.62× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
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Is Minera Valparaiso S.A. (MINERA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 17,772 CLP versus a price of 10,790 CLP, about +65% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MINERA?
Our model-based fair value for Minera Valparaiso S.A. is 17,772 CLP (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 10,790 CLP.
What is the quality score of MINERA?
Minera Valparaiso S.A. has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Minera Valparaiso S.A. (MINERA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 17,772 CLP (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 19 valuation models. Cautious scenario 12,440 CLP, optimistic scenario 17,772 CLP. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Minera Valparaiso S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 17,772 CLP, about +65% upside versus a price of 10,790 CLP (undervalued). Cautious scenario 12,440 CLP, optimistic scenario 17,772 CLP. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Minera Valparaiso S.A. (MINERA)?
Minera Valparaiso S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Minera Valparaiso S.A. (MINERA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Minera Valparaiso S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +14.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MINERA use?
Our models discount Minera Valparaiso S.A. at 12.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Chile. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Minera Valparaiso S.A. that is +14.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Minera Valparaiso S.A. (MINERA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Minera Valparaiso S.A. grew +3.4 % a year. The price currently implies +14.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Minera Valparaiso S.A. (MINERA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Minera Valparaiso S.A. (+14.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Minera Valparaiso S.A. (MINERA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.73 %: that much free cash flow Minera Valparaiso S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Minera Valparaiso S.A. (MINERA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Minera Valparaiso S.A. it is 17,772 CLP per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 10,790 CLP. It is the blended result of 19 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Minera Valparaiso S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MINERA trades below its calculated fair value: price 10,790 CLP, fair value 17,772 CLP, a gap of about +65% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MINERA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (10,790 CLP); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (17,772 CLP). For Minera Valparaiso S.A. the two are 6,982 CLP per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Minera Valparaiso S.A. worth?
The market values Minera Valparaiso S.A. at about 1.3T CLP (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 10,790 CLP; our models calculate a fair value of 17,772 CLP per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MINERA?
Our models span a range for Minera Valparaiso S.A.: cautious scenario 12,440 CLP, base 17,772 CLP, optimistic 17,772 CLP per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 10,790 CLP). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MINERA?
Minera Valparaiso S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 17,772 CLP is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.3, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 7.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Minera Valparaiso S.A. (MINERA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Minera Valparaiso S.A. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.2%, debt of 0.62 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MINERA from its 52-week high?
Minera Valparaiso S.A. trades at 10,790 CLP, about 25% below its 52-week high of 14,329 CLP and 7% above the low of 10,100 CLP (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 17,772 CLP is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Minera Valparaiso S.A.?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Adani Green Energy Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Minera Valparaiso S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 10,790 CLP, calculated fair value 17,772 CLP (+65%), Quality Score 48/100, from 19 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MINERA calculated?
We run Minera Valparaiso S.A. through 19 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 17,772 CLP, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Minera Valparaiso S.A. currently trades 65 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Minera Valparaiso S.A. (MINERA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 10,790 CLP. Our model-based fair value is 17,772 CLP, about +65% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Minera Valparaiso S.A. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (12,440 CLP). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Minera Valparaiso S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Minera Valparaiso S.A. (MINERA)?
The market capitalisation of Minera Valparaiso S.A. is 1.3T CLP (≈ $1.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Minera Valparaiso S.A. (MINERA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Minera Valparaiso S.A. is 0.94 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Minera Valparaiso S.A. (MINERA)?
Earnings per share at Minera Valparaiso S.A. are 1,209 CLP (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Minera Valparaiso S.A. (MINERA)?
The net margin of Minera Valparaiso S.A. is 10.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Minera Valparaiso S.A. (MINERA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Minera Valparaiso S.A. is 4.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Minera Valparaiso S.A. (MINERA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Minera Valparaiso S.A. is 4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Minera Valparaiso S.A. (MINERA)?
The operating margin of Minera Valparaiso S.A. is 21.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Minera Valparaiso S.A. (MINERA)?
Revenue at Minera Valparaiso S.A. is growing −0.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Minera Valparaiso S.A. (MINERA)?
Earnings per share at Minera Valparaiso S.A. are growing −8.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Minera Valparaiso S.A. (MINERA) carry?
The net debt of Minera Valparaiso S.A. is $2.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 12.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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