Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · AT · Market cap €1.5B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +9.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 22% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€82.67). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €64.35 – €171.47 · fair‑value band €49.60 – €82.67 · the €85.10 price screens above the €66.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK) currently trades at €85.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €66.14, implying the stock looks roughly 22.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG generated revenue of €3.9B at a net margin of 2.0%. Revenue declined 10.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.6%. Net debt stands at €790M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €49.60 (bear case) to €82.67 (bull case); at €85.10, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -22%, MMK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (€72.47) versus DCF Models (€3.96). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells carton boards, paper, and folding cartons primarily in Europe. It operates through three segments: MM Food & Premium Packaging, MM Pharma & Healthcare Packaging, and MM Board & Paper.
Full company description
Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells carton boards, paper, and folding cartons primarily in Europe. It operates through three segments: MM Food & Premium Packaging, MM Pharma & Healthcare Packaging, and MM Board & Paper. The MM Food & Premium segment processes carton boards into folding cartons primarily for the food industry and other consumer goods industries. The MM Pharma & Healthcare Packaging segment processes carton boards into folding cartons for the pharmaceutical industry, as well as leaflets and labels. The MM Board & Paper segment manufactures and markets carton boards focusing on coated carton board produced from recycled fibres, as well as virgin fibre-based carton boards. It also offers kraft papers, uncoated fine papers, and pulp. The company was founded in 1888 and is based in Vienna, Austria.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG reported revenue of €3.9B in FY2025 versus €3.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was €75.6M in FY2025, compounding −20.5%/yr from FY2021.
MMK screens 22% overvalued. Compare with Stora Enso Oyj →
Peer Group
Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stora Enso Oyj STER | kr 101.90 | kr 126.39 | +24% |
| ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 | ¥29.10 | ¥20.88 | -28% |
| SCG Packaging Public Company SCGP | 29.00 THB | 16.12 THB | -44% |
| AblePrint Technology Co 7734 | 2,850 TWD | 661.69 TWD | -77% |
| PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, FASW | 5,312 IDR | 1,194 IDR | -78% |
| Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise Co 9939 | 132.50 TWD | 127.06 TWD | -4% |
| Time Technoplast Limited TIMETECHNO | ₹206.82 | ₹161.42 | -22% |
| EPL Limited 500135 | ₹222.25 | ₹111.65 | -50% |
| Ton Yi Industrial Corp 9907 | 15.15 TWD | 23.17 TWD | +53% |
| Dongwon Systems Corporation 014820 | 19,330 KRW | 31,473 KRW | +63% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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