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Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG €66.14, price €71.70, upside -7.8%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · AT · ISIN AT0000938204

MM Broad data Sep 23, 2026

Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG

MMK · VI

NeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value €66.14 · Fairly valued (−8%)
!Quality 59/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +9.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.0% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
·2.79% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
!Narrow moat 29/100
!Weak on valuation: 23 out of 100
!Weak on past: 15 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€171.47 €64.35 Fair Value €66.14 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €64.35 – €171.47 · fair‑value band €49.60 – €69.47 · the €71.70 price screens above the €66.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells carton boards, paper, and folding cartons primarily in Europe. It operates through three segments: MM Food & Premium Packaging, MM Pharma & Healthcare Packaging, and MM Board & Paper.

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Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells carton boards, paper, and folding cartons primarily in Europe. It operates through three segments: MM Food & Premium Packaging, MM Pharma & Healthcare Packaging, and MM Board & Paper. The MM Food & Premium segment processes carton boards into folding cartons primarily for the food industry and other consumer goods industries. The MM Pharma & Healthcare Packaging segment processes carton boards into folding cartons for the pharmaceutical industry, as well as leaflets and labels. The MM Board & Paper segment manufactures and markets carton boards focusing on coated carton board produced from recycled fibres, as well as virgin fibre-based carton boards. It also offers kraft papers, uncoated fine papers, and pulp. The company was founded in 1888 and is based in Vienna, Austria.

Stock analysis

Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK) currently trades at €71.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €66.14, implying the stock looks roughly 8.4% fairly valued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of €72.47 per share, and 3 of the 12 models we run sit above the €71.70 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €13.27, and 9 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €49.60 (bear) to €69.47 (bull), the price of €71.70 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG reported revenue of €3.9B in FY2025 versus €3.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was €75.6M in FY2025, compounding −20.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap €1.5B · P/E ratio 18.6 · P/S ratio 0.36 · EPS (TTM) €3.86 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 1.9% · Return on equity 3.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −8%, MMK screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €49.60 Fair Value €66.14 Bull €69.47
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.36 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income €74.85 €71.74 €58.07 74
Owner Earnings €6.56 €19.81 €35.96 69
EV/EBITDA €100.24 €144.84 €189.43 67
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings €6.56 €19.81 €35.96 69
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €26.46 €58.28 €74.32 64
PEG = 1.0 €9.29 €13.27 €17.25 55
Multiples
P/E Multiple €49.60 €66.14 €82.67 63
P/S Multiple €49.60 €66.14 €82.67 58
P/B Multiple €49.60 €66.14 €82.67 55
EV/EBIT €35.04 €57.91 €80.77 64
EV/EBITDA €100.24 €144.84 €189.43 67
EV/Revenue €25.90 €51.37 €76.85 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €54.08 €72.47 €108.16 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income €74.85 €71.74 €58.07 74
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €37.40 €53.43 €69.47 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43

Profitability 42
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 37
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 49
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 89
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 77
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 20
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 96
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−13.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 3%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 59 · Above median
Fair Value upside −8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −10% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.55× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 18.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.83× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.45× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 5.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG 2.39× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)23 · sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 3
PAST (return on equity)15 · sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)73 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)56 · sector 46

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Smurfit Westrock Plc, SW $46.45 $29.84 −36%
Packaging Corporation PKG $238.23 $129.76 −46%
International Paper Company IP $35.71 $21.44 −40%
Ball Corporation BALL $59.97 $47.41 −21%
Crown Holdings CCK $109.64 $118.59 +8%
Avery Dennison Corporation AVY $172.09 $123.89 −28%
Stora Enso Oyj STEAV €10.95 €9.69 −12%
SIG Group SIGN CHF 13.47 CHF 9.54 −29%
Sonoco Products Company SON $50.69 $61.99 +22%
Reynolds Consumer Products Inc REYN $22.17 $20.00 −10%

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Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG · Fair Value
€66.14 −8%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MMK

Frequently asked questions

Is Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €66.14 versus a price of €71.70, about −8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MMK?
Our model-based fair value for Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is €66.14 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €71.70.
What is the quality score of MMK?
Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €66.14 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario €49.60, optimistic scenario €69.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €66.14, about −8% upside versus a price of €71.70 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €49.60, optimistic scenario €69.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG pay a dividend?
Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.79% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG it is €66.14 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €71.70. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MMK trades above its calculated fair value: price €71.70, fair value €66.14, a gap of about −8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MMK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€71.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€66.14). For Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG the two are €5.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG worth?
The market values Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG at about €1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €71.70; our models calculate a fair value of €66.14 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MMK?
Our models span a range for Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG: cautious scenario €49.60, base €66.14, optimistic €69.47 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €71.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MMK?
Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €66.14 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.4, P/B 0.8, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 5.0.
What is the PEG ratio of MMK?
The PEG ratio of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is 2.39 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 3.6%, debt of 0.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MMK from its 52-week high?
Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG trades at €71.70, about 28% below its 52-week high of €99.42 and 5% above the low of €68.23 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €66.14 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €71.70, calculated fair value €66.14 (−8%), Quality Score 59/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MMK calculated?
We run Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €66.14, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €71.70. Our model-based fair value is €66.14, about −8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€69.47). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.

Key figures of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG

How large is the market capitalisation of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
The market capitalisation of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is €1.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is 0.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
Earnings per share at Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG are €3.86 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
The dividend yield of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is 2.8% (payout 51.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
The net margin of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is 1.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is 3.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
The operating margin of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is 0.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
Revenue at Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is growing −10.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
Earnings per share at Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG are growing −83.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK) generate?
The free cash flow of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is −€1.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK) carry?
The net debt of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is €790M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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