Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG stock €66.14, price €66.80, that is 1.0% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €64.10 – €171.47 · fair‑value band €39.31 – €77.15 · the €66.80 price screens above the €66.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells carton boards, paper, and folding cartons primarily in Europe. It operates through three segments: MM Food & Premium Packaging, MM Pharma & Healthcare Packaging, and MM Board & Paper.
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The MM Food & Premium segment processes carton boards into folding cartons primarily for the food industry and other consumer goods industries. The MM Pharma & Healthcare Packaging segment processes carton boards into folding cartons for the pharmaceutical industry, as well as leaflets and labels.
The MM Board & Paper segment manufactures and markets carton boards focusing on coated carton board produced from recycled fibres, as well as virgin fibre-based carton boards. It also offers kraft papers, uncoated fine papers, and pulp. The company was founded in 1888 and is based in Vienna, Austria.
Stock analysis
Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK) currently trades at €66.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €66.14, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.0%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of €75.08 per share, and 4 of the 13 models we run sit above the €66.80 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €24.73, and 9 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €39.31 (bear) to €77.15 (bull), the price of €66.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG reported revenue of €3.9B in FY2025 versus €3.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was €75.6M in FY2025, compounding −20.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €1.3B Small · P/S ratio 0.34 · EPS (TTM) €−2.85 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin −1.5% · Return on equity −2.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin 3.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 23 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −1%, MMK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€39.31Fair Value €66.14Bull€77.15
Price €66.80 · Downside -1.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.9% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−13.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−16.3% vs −5.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 3%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 261 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−1.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets1.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−1.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)3.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−6.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.55× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MMK
Frequently asked questions
Is Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €66.14 versus a price of €66.80, about 1% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MMK?
Our model-based fair value for Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is €66.14 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €66.80.
What is the quality score of MMK?
Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €66.14 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario €39.31, optimistic scenario €77.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €66.14, about 1% lower versus a price of €66.80 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €39.31, optimistic scenario €77.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG pay a dividend?
Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG currently shows a dividend yield of 2.99% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG pays a dividend of €2.00 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.0%. The last ex-dividend date was May 6, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2000. The payout ratio is 63.0% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 51.4%). Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG it is €66.14 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of €66.80. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, MMK trades above its calculated fair value: price €66.80, fair value €66.14, a gap of about −1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MMK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€66.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€66.14). For Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG the two are €0.6600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG worth?
The market values Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG at about €1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is €66.80; our models calculate a fair value of €66.14 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MMK?
Our models span a range for Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG: cautious scenario €39.31, base €66.14, optimistic €77.15 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price €66.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of MMK?
The PEG ratio of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is 2.39 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity −2.6%, debt of 0.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MMK from its 52-week high?
Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG trades at €66.80, about 33% below its 52-week high of €99.42 and 4% above the low of €64.10 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €66.14 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, Amcor plc, International Paper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price €66.80, calculated fair value €66.14 (−1%), Quality Score 55/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MMK calculated?
We run Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG through 15 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €66.14 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €66.80. Our model-based fair value is €66.14, about 1% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (€39.31 to €77.15) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK) come from?
Earnings per share at Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG grew −4.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.1 %, EBIT margin −9.0 %, tax rate −0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
The market capitalisation of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is €1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is 0.34 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
Earnings per share at Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG are €−2.85. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
The dividend yield of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is 3.0% (payout 63.0%, on adjusted earnings, reported 51.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
The net margin of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is −1.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is −2.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
The operating margin of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is 3.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
Revenue at Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is growing −6.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK)?
Earnings per share at Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG are growing −88.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK) generate?
The free cash flow of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is −€40.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK) carry?
The net debt of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG is €790M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 9, 2026