Mainova AG (MNV6) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Mainova AG €222, price €376, upside -40.8%, quality 31 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €295.26 – €550.98 · fair‑value band €131.90 – €263.80 · the €376.00 price screens above the €222.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Follow Mainova in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Mainova is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Mainova AG operates as an energy service provider in Germany. It operates through Electricity Supply; Gas Supply; Generation and District Heating; Renewable Energy/Energy Services; Water Supply; Investments; and Other Activities segments.
Show more
Mainova AG operates as an energy service provider in Germany. It operates through Electricity Supply; Gas Supply; Generation and District Heating; Renewable Energy/Energy Services; Water Supply; Investments; and Other Activities segments. The company generates and supplies electricity and heat using thermal, wind, natural gas, solar, and biomass power plants; and PV business, contracting, and energy services. It is also involved in the supply of gas and water, as well as street lighting business. The company was founded in 1828 and is based in Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Mainova AG operates as a subsidiary of Stadtwerke Frankfurt Am Main Holding Gmbh.
Stock analysis
Mainova AG (MNV6) currently trades at €376.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €222.48, 40.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €286.77 per share, and 0 of the 20 models we run sit above the €376.00 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at €77.36, and 20 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €131.90 (bear) to €263.80 (bull), the price of €376.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Mainova AG reported revenue of €3.9B in FY2025 versus €3.7B in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was €137M in FY2025, compounding −22.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €2.8B · P/E ratio 18.4 · P/S ratio 0.66 · EPS (TTM) €20.42 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 3.6% · Return on equity 5.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −41%, MNV6 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €131.90Fair Value €222.48Bull €263.80
Price €376.00 · Upside -40.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€7.30 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−18.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.9% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−3.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 3%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+64.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +61.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 157 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−40.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5.8% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets−0.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)3.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−1.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.34× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)18.4× · Pricier than median
P/B1.13× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.72× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF317.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA33.4× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 13
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)23· sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)83· sector 52
DIVIDEND (yield)58· sector 65
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mainova AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MNV6
Frequently asked questions
Is Mainova AG (MNV6) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €222.48 versus a price of €376.00, about −41% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MNV6?
Our model-based fair value for Mainova AG is €222.48 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €376.00.
What is the quality score of MNV6?
Mainova AG has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mainova AG (MNV6)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €222.48 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario €131.90, optimistic scenario €263.80. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mainova AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €222.48, about −41% upside versus a price of €376.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €131.90, optimistic scenario €263.80. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mainova AG (MNV6)?
Mainova AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Mainova AG pay a dividend?
Mainova AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.88% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mainova AG (MNV6)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mainova AG would have to grow free cash flow by +64.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.3 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MNV6 use?
Our models discount Mainova AG at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mainova AG that is +64.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mainova AG (MNV6) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mainova AG grew +11.3 % a year. The price currently implies +64.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mainova AG (MNV6) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mainova AG (+64.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mainova AG (MNV6)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.32 %: that much free cash flow Mainova AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mainova AG (MNV6)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mainova AG it is €222.48 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of €376.00. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mainova AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, MNV6 trades above its calculated fair value: price €376.00, fair value €222.48, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MNV6?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€376.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€222.48). For Mainova AG the two are €153.52 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mainova AG worth?
The market values Mainova AG at about €2.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is €376.00; our models calculate a fair value of €222.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MNV6?
Our models span a range for Mainova AG: cautious scenario €131.90, base €222.48, optimistic €263.80 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price €376.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MNV6?
Mainova AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €222.48 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 33.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mainova AG (MNV6)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mainova AG (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 5.8%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MNV6 from its 52-week high?
Mainova AG trades at €376.00, about 5% below its 52-week high of €396.00 and 22% above the low of €307.56 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €222.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mainova AG?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mainova AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price €376.00, calculated fair value €222.48 (−41%), Quality Score 31/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MNV6 calculated?
We run Mainova AG through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €222.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Mainova AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mainova AG (MNV6)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was €376.00. Our model-based fair value is €222.48, about −41% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mainova AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€263.80). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (€131.90 to €263.80) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Mainova AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Mainova AG (MNV6)?
The market capitalisation of Mainova AG is €2.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mainova AG (MNV6)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mainova AG is 0.66 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mainova AG (MNV6)?
Earnings per share at Mainova AG are €20.42 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mainova AG (MNV6)?
The dividend yield of Mainova AG is 2.9% (payout 53.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mainova AG (MNV6)?
The net margin of Mainova AG is 3.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mainova AG (MNV6)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mainova AG is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mainova AG (MNV6)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mainova AG is −1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mainova AG (MNV6)?
The operating margin of Mainova AG is −1.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mainova AG (MNV6)?
Revenue at Mainova AG is growing −3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −18.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mainova AG (MNV6)?
Earnings per share at Mainova AG are growing −73.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mainova AG (MNV6) carry?
The net debt of Mainova AG is €894M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Mainova AG in the live analysis
One click puts Mainova AG on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
