Molecure S.A. (MOC) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · PL · Market cap 146M PLN
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 13 days ago
Share price +1.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and trading another 272% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (2.06 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (1.09 PLN to 2.06 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 5.11 PLN – 51.10 PLN · fair‑value band 1.09 PLN – 2.06 PLN · the 6.14 PLN price screens above the 1.65 PLN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Molecure S.A. (MOC) currently trades at 6.14 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.65 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 73.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at 6.5M PLN. Revenue grew 29.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -16.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 11.0M PLN. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 1.09 PLN (bear case) to 2.06 PLN (bull case); at 6.14 PLN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -60% fair-value upside, at -73%, MOC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Molecure S.A., a biotechnology company, engages in discovering, developing, and commercializing therapeutics for neoplastic and inflammatory diseases in Poland.
Full company description
Molecure S.A., a biotechnology company, engages in discovering, developing, and commercializing therapeutics for neoplastic and inflammatory diseases in Poland. The company is involved in the development of OATD-01, a chitotriosidase/AMCASE inhibitor that has completed Phase I clinical trial for the treatment of sarcoidosis, as well as in preclinical stage to treat idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and NASH. It also develops OATD-02, an arginase 1 and arginase 2, which is in Phase I clinical trial for the treatment of cancer; USP7, USP21, and YKL-40 for the treatment of cancer; and Deubiquitinase program. The company was formerly known as OncoArendi Therapeutics S.A. and changed its name to Molecure S.A. in March 2022. Molecure S.A. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
Molecure S.A. reported revenue of 2.9M PLN in FY2024 versus 123M PLN in FY2020, a compound −60.7%/yr. Reported net income was −31.3M PLN in FY2024.
MOC screens 73% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 630 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $525.73 | $278.78 | -47% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $797.99 | $594.40 | -26% |
| argenx SE ARGX | €877.60 | €292.84 | -67% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,549,000 KRW | 1,055,793 KRW | -32% |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY | $228.61 | $51.70 | -77% |
| Royalty Pharma plc RPRX | $60.58 | $24.22 | -60% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 202,000 KRW | 74,519 KRW | -63% |
| BeOne Medicines AG ONC | $362.51 | $111.35 | -69% |
| Moderna, Inc MRNA | $63.67 | $12.77 | -80% |
| BioNTech SE 22UA | €80.60 | €52.92 | -34% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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