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Mutuionline (MOL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Mutuionline €24.85, price €30.60, upside -18.8%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · IT · ISIN IT0004195308

M Broad data Sep 23, 2026

Mutuionline

MOL · MI

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value €24.85 · Overvalued (−19%)
!Quality 61/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +21.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·0.49% dividend yield
!Trails peers (5/14)
!Moderate moat 49/100
!The models disagree: range €7.49 to €42.15
!Weak on valuation: 8 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 10 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€51.75 €19.19 Fair Value €24.85 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €19.19 – €51.75 · fair‑value band €7.49 – €42.15 · the €30.60 price screens above the €24.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Moltiply Group S.p.A. operates as a holding company in the financial services industry in Italy, Germany, and internationally. It operates through Moltiply BPO&Tech (BPO) and Mavriq (Broking) divisions. The Mavriq Division operates in the online comparison and intermediation of utility contracts, insurance products, bank products, and e-commerce offers.

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Moltiply Group S.p.A. operates as a holding company in the financial services industry in Italy, Germany, and internationally. It operates through Moltiply BPO&Tech (BPO) and Mavriq (Broking) divisions. The Mavriq Division operates in the online comparison and intermediation of utility contracts, insurance products, bank products, and e-commerce offers. This segment also provides Mavriq Telco & Energy, an online comparison and intermediation of electricity, gas and telco contracts; Mavriq Insurance, an online comparison and intermediation of insurance products; Mavriq Banking, an online comparison and intermediation of credit and other banking products; and Mavriq Shopping, a comparison shopping website and consumer review services. The Moltiply BPO&Tech Division provides business process outsourcing and IT platforms for the financial, insurance, and leasing/rental sectors; and offers a set of proprietary information technology solutions to client companies in its business areas. This segment is involved in Moltiply Banking which provides BPO services and IT solutions for loan origination and servicing, para-notary services, property valuation services, and comprehensive solutions including operational services and IT platforms to investment and asset management firms; Moltiply Lease that provides BPO and IT core solutions for leasing and long-term rental operators; and Moltiply Insurance which provides claims management and settlement outsourcing services. The company was formerly known as Gruppo MutuiOnline S.p.A. and changed its name to Moltiply Group S.p.A. in May 2024. Moltiply Group S.p.A. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Milan, Italy.

Stock analysis

Mutuionline (MOL) currently trades at €30.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €24.85, implying the stock looks roughly 23.1% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €50.35 per share, and 5 of the 13 models we run sit above the €30.60 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €5.99, and 8 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €7.49 (bear) to €42.15 (bull), the price of €30.60 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Mutuionline reported revenue of €685M in FY2025 versus €313M in FY2021, a compound +21.6%/yr. Reported net income was €28.6M in FY2025, compounding +15.0%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap €1.5B · P/E ratio 29.7 · P/S ratio 1.24 · EPS (TTM) €1.03 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 4.2% · Return on equity 12.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −19%, MOL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €7.49 Fair Value €24.85 Bull €42.15
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.6437 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income €7.08 €7.47 €8.09 76
Growth DCF €29.87 €56.90 €104.68 75
Owner Earnings €23.62 €58.01 €121.83 70
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings €23.62 €58.01 €121.83 70
5Y P/E Exit €9.57 €20.63 €33.73 68
10Y P/E Exit €16.95 €31.33 €53.32 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €5.22 €36.42 €51.11 63
Lynch FV €11.49 €16.42 €21.35 61
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €0.9400 €1.69 €2.32 68
DDM Multi-Stage €0.9400 €1.54 €1.80 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple €7.49 €9.98 €12.48 63
P/B Multiple €9.38 €12.51 €15.64 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €4.47 €5.99 €8.94 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €29.87 €56.90 €104.68 75
Rev-Margin DCF €22.44 €50.35 €92.67 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income €7.08 €7.47 €8.09 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29

Profitability 46
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 84
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 46
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 71
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 95/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+47.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +18.9% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−5.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−6% vs 3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 15%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.5% a year for the price.

MOL screens 23% overvalued. Compare with Visa Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 330 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 61 · Above median
Fair Value upside −19% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Above median
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 17% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 38% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.37× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 29.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B 4.97× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 2.21× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 14.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 15.5× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)8 · sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 39
PAST (return on equity)51 · sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)32 · sector 59
DIVIDEND (yield)10 · sector 66

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Credit Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Visa Inc V $362.04 $227.35 −37%
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American Express Company AXP $305.07 $206.40 −32%
Capital One Financial Corporation COF $200.55 $125.36 −37%
Bajaj Finance Limited BAJFINANCE ₹1,043 ₹1,101 +6%
PayPal Holdings PYPL $52.89 $99.46 +88%
Affirm Holdings AFRM $71.77 $16.24 −77%
Shriram Finance Limited SHRIRAMFIN ₹1,011 ₹1,374 +36%
Synchrony Financial, SYF $72.67 $137.28 +89%
SoFi Technologies, Inc SOFI $17.16 $5.57 −68%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mutuionline Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MOL

Frequently asked questions

Is Mutuionline (MOL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €24.85 versus a price of €30.60, about −19% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MOL?
Our model-based fair value for Mutuionline is €24.85 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €30.60.
What is the quality score of MOL?
Mutuionline has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mutuionline (MOL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €24.85 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario €7.49, optimistic scenario €42.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mutuionline stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €24.85, about −19% upside versus a price of €30.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €7.49, optimistic scenario €42.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mutuionline (MOL)?
Mutuionline reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €747M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Mutuionline pay a dividend?
Mutuionline currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.49% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mutuionline (MOL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mutuionline would have to grow free cash flow by +10.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +21.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MOL use?
Our models discount Mutuionline at 14.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.22, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mutuionline that is +10.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mutuionline (MOL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mutuionline grew +21.4 % a year. The price currently implies +10.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mutuionline (MOL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mutuionline (+10.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mutuionline (MOL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.77 %: that much free cash flow Mutuionline produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mutuionline (MOL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mutuionline it is €24.85 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €30.60. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mutuionline stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MOL trades above its calculated fair value: price €30.60, fair value €24.85, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MOL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€30.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€24.85). For Mutuionline the two are €5.75 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mutuionline worth?
The market values Mutuionline at about €1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €30.60; our models calculate a fair value of €24.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MOL?
Our models span a range for Mutuionline: cautious scenario €7.49, base €24.85, optimistic €42.15 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €30.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MOL?
Mutuionline trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.7 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €24.85 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.0, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 15.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mutuionline (MOL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mutuionline (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 12.7%, debt of 1.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MOL from its 52-week high?
Mutuionline trades at €30.60, about 35% below its 52-week high of €46.87 and 2% above the low of €29.88 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €24.85 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mutuionline?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mutuionline stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €30.60, calculated fair value €24.85 (−19%), Quality Score 61/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MOL calculated?
We run Mutuionline through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €24.85, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Mutuionline itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mutuionline (MOL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €30.60. Our model-based fair value is €24.85, about −19% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mutuionline right now?
The model range is unusually wide (€7.49 to €42.15). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Mutuionline (MOL) come from?
Earnings per share at Mutuionline grew +21.9 % a year from 2012 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +22.6 %, EBIT margin +2.4 %, tax rate −3.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Mutuionline

How large is the market capitalisation of Mutuionline (MOL)?
The market capitalisation of Mutuionline is €1.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mutuionline (MOL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mutuionline is 1.24 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mutuionline (MOL)?
Earnings per share at Mutuionline are €1.03 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mutuionline (MOL)?
The dividend yield of Mutuionline is 0.5% (payout 14.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mutuionline (MOL)?
The net margin of Mutuionline is 4.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mutuionline (MOL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mutuionline is 12.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mutuionline (MOL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mutuionline is 8.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mutuionline (MOL)?
The operating margin of Mutuionline is 17.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mutuionline (MOL)?
Revenue at Mutuionline is growing +37.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +30.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mutuionline (MOL)?
Earnings per share at Mutuionline are growing +4.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mutuionline (MOL) carry?
The net debt of Mutuionline is €363M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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