Mpac Group (MPAC) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · GB · Market cap 100.0M GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +10.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 41% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£2.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £1.85 – £6.37 · fair‑value band £1.54 – £2.13 · the £3.25 price screens above the £1.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Mpac Group (MPAC) currently trades at £3.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £1.93, implying the stock looks roughly 40.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Mpac Group generated revenue of £174M at a net margin of -5.5%. Revenue grew 43.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -10.4%. Net debt stands at £58.9M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £1.54 (bear case) to £2.13 (bull case); at £3.25, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -41%, MPAC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (£5.15) versus Dividend Discount (£0.1500). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 29 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Mpac Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides packaging and automation solutions to healthcare, clean energy, and food and beverage sectors worldwide. The company operates through Original Equipment and Service segments.
Full company description
Mpac Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides packaging and automation solutions to healthcare, clean energy, and food and beverage sectors worldwide. The company operates through Original Equipment and Service segments. It designs, develops, manufactures, and engineers packaging solutions; and offers automation and secondary packaging equipment, end-of-line robotics with integrated testing solutions, and at line instrumentation solutions. The company offers product assembly, filling and dosing, product handling and infeed, cartoning, case packing, tray forming, and palletising solutions. It offers its products under the Lambert, Langen, Switchback, SIGA Vision, BCA, and CSi Palletising brand names. The company was formerly known as Molins plc and changed its name to Mpac Group plc in January 2018. The company was founded in 1874 and is headquartered in Coventry, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mpac Group reported revenue of £174M in FY2025 versus £94.3M in FY2021, a compound +16.6%/yr. Reported net income was −£9.5M in FY2025.
MPAC screens 41% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 808 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc 1GEV | €887.60 | €186.93 | -79% |
| 1SIE 1SIE | €273.20 | €91.93 | -66% |
| SMNS SMNS | C$31.76 | C$22.68 | -29% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $407.28 | $171.92 | -58% |
| Atlas Copco AB ATCOA | kr 195.15 | kr 112.59 | -42% |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 384.10 | kr 193.01 | -50% |
| Doosan Enerbility Co 034020 | 76,400 KRW | 7,938 KRW | -90% |
| Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWS | kr 178.10 | kr 124.54 | -30% |
| Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 | ¥43.20 | ¥22.68 | -48% |
| NARI Technology Co 600406 | ¥22.19 | ¥18.71 | -16% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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