Melrose Industries PLC (MRO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Melrose Industries PLC £5.51, price £4.80, upside +14.8%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £1.75 – £6.75 · fair‑value band £2.23 – £7.79 · the £4.80 price screens below the £5.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Melrose Industries PLC, together with its subsidiaries, designs and delivers aerospace components and systems for civil and defence markets in the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, North America, and internationally. The company operates through Engines and Airframes segments.
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Melrose Industries PLC, together with its subsidiaries, designs and delivers aerospace components and systems for civil and defence markets in the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, North America, and internationally. The company operates through Engines and Airframes segments. The Engines segment offers structural engineered components; parts repair; commercial and aftermarket contracts; engine mount structures; fan cases and turbine cases; and shafts and rotating components to engines original equipment manufacturers. The Airframes segment provides civil and defence air frames, including lightweight composite and metallic structures; electrical distribution systems and components; wing structures; empennage; fuselage; electrical wiring interconnection systems ("EWIS"); landing gear and ice protection systems; and aircraft transparencies to airframe original equipment manufacturers. The company was formerly known as New Melrose Industries PLC and changed its name to Melrose Industries PLC in November 2015. Melrose Industries PLC was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in London, United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Melrose Industries PLC (MRO) currently trades at £4.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £5.51, implying the stock looks roughly 12.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of £6.95 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the £4.80 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £1.00, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £2.23 (bear) to £7.79 (bull), the price of £4.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Melrose Industries PLC reported revenue of £3.6B in FY2025 versus £6.7B in FY2021, a compound −14.3%/yr. Reported net income was £370M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 6.1B GBX · P/E ratio 16.5 · P/S ratio 1.71 · EPS (TTM) £0.2900 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 10.3% · Return on equity 13.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at 15%, MRO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £2.23Fair Value £5.51Bull £7.79
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.1573 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−21.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +30.0% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−5.6% (2020) → 17.4% (2025)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+30.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +27.7% a year for the price and +5.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 826 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside+15% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.54× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
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Is Melrose Industries PLC (MRO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £5.51 versus a price of £4.80, about +15% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MRO?
Our model-based fair value for Melrose Industries PLC is £5.51 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £4.80.
What is the quality score of MRO?
Melrose Industries PLC has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Melrose Industries PLC (MRO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £5.51 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario £2.23, optimistic scenario £7.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Melrose Industries PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £5.51, about +15% upside versus a price of £4.80 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £2.23, optimistic scenario £7.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Melrose Industries PLC (MRO)?
Melrose Industries PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £3.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Melrose Industries PLC pay a dividend?
Melrose Industries PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.56% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Melrose Industries PLC (MRO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Melrose Industries PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +30.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -12.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MRO use?
Our models discount Melrose Industries PLC at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.84, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Melrose Industries PLC that is +30.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Melrose Industries PLC (MRO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Melrose Industries PLC grew -12.8 % a year. The price currently implies +30.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Melrose Industries PLC (MRO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Melrose Industries PLC (+30.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Melrose Industries PLC (MRO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.09 %: that much free cash flow Melrose Industries PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Melrose Industries PLC (MRO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Melrose Industries PLC it is £5.51 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of £4.80. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Melrose Industries PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MRO trades below its calculated fair value: price £4.80, fair value £5.51, a gap of about +15% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MRO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£4.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£5.51). For Melrose Industries PLC the two are £0.7110 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Melrose Industries PLC worth?
The market values Melrose Industries PLC at about 6.1B GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is £4.80; our models calculate a fair value of £5.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MRO?
Our models span a range for Melrose Industries PLC: cautious scenario £2.23, base £5.51, optimistic £7.79 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price £4.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MRO?
Melrose Industries PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £5.51 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 2.9, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 10.2.
What is the PEG ratio of MRO?
The PEG ratio of Melrose Industries PLC is 0.72 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Melrose Industries PLC (MRO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Melrose Industries PLC (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 13.1%, debt of 0.54 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MRO from its 52-week high?
Melrose Industries PLC trades at £4.80, about 29% below its 52-week high of £6.75 and 7% above the low of £4.48 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £5.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Melrose Industries PLC?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Melrose Industries PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price £4.80, calculated fair value £5.51 (+15%), Quality Score 61/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MRO calculated?
We run Melrose Industries PLC through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £5.51, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Melrose Industries PLC currently trades 15 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Melrose Industries PLC (MRO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was £4.80. Our model-based fair value is £5.51, about +15% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Melrose Industries PLC right now?
The model range is unusually wide (£2.23 to £7.79). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Melrose Industries PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Melrose Industries PLC (MRO)?
The market capitalisation of Melrose Industries PLC is 6.1B GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Melrose Industries PLC (MRO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Melrose Industries PLC is 1.71 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Melrose Industries PLC (MRO)?
Earnings per share at Melrose Industries PLC are £0.2900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Melrose Industries PLC (MRO)?
The dividend yield of Melrose Industries PLC is 1.6% (payout 25.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Melrose Industries PLC (MRO)?
The net margin of Melrose Industries PLC is 10.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Melrose Industries PLC (MRO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Melrose Industries PLC is 13.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Melrose Industries PLC (MRO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Melrose Industries PLC is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Melrose Industries PLC (MRO)?
The operating margin of Melrose Industries PLC is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Melrose Industries PLC (MRO)?
Revenue at Melrose Industries PLC is growing +8.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −21.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Melrose Industries PLC (MRO)?
Earnings per share at Melrose Industries PLC are growing +181% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Melrose Industries PLC (MRO) carry?
The net debt of Melrose Industries PLC is 1.7B GBX (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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