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Mesoblast Ltd (MSB) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 11, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mesoblast Ltd stock A$1.52, price A$2.03, that is 25.2% below the price, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Healthcare AU · ISIN AU000000MSB8

ML Mesoblast Ltd logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Mesoblast Ltd

MSB · AU
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 25% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Quality 41/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +75.1 %/yr in USD)
Mixed vs. peers (6/11)
Fair value A$1.52 · Overvalued
Loss-making · -47.8% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 12/100
Thin data
Estimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

A$3.35 A$0.2600 Fair Value A$1.52 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.2600 – A$3.35 · fair‑value band A$1.14 – A$1.90 · the A$2.03 price screens above the A$1.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Mesoblast Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development of regenerative medicine products in Australia, the United States, Singapore, and Switzerland.

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The company's proprietary regenerative medicine technology platform is based on specialized cells known as mesenchymal lineage cells.

It offers Remestemcel-L, which is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of systemic inflammatory diseases, including steroid refractory acute graft versus host disease and biologic refractory inflammatory bowel disease, as well as ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease; and Remestemcel-L, which is in Phase III clinical trials to treat chronic heart failure and chronic low back pain due to degenerative disc disease.

The company is also developing MPC-300-IV to treat biologic refractory rheumatoid arthritis diabetic nephropathy.

It has strategic partnerships with Tasly Pharmaceutical Group to offer MPC-150-IM for the treatment or prevention of chronic heart failure; MPC-25-IC for the treatment or prevention of acute myocardial infarction; and Ryoncil for the treatment of pediatric SR-aGVHD; JCR Pharmaceuticals Co. Ltd. to treat wound healing in patients with epidermolysis bullosa and for the treatment of neonatal hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy; and Grünenthal to develops and commercializes cell therapy for the treatment of chronic low back pain.

The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

Stock analysis

Mesoblast Ltd (MSB) currently trades at A$2.03, while our estimate is A$1.52, 25% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: A$1.14 (bear) to A$1.90 (bull), the price of A$2.03 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Mesoblast Ltd reported revenue of $123M in FY2026 versus $10.2M in FY2022, a compound +86.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$58.8M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap A$2.6B (≈ $1.8B) Small · P/S ratio 19.2 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0700 · Net margin −47.8% · Return on equity −9.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −10.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin −33.3% · Revenue (TTM) $120M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −25%, MSB screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear A$1.14 Fair Value A$1.52 Bull A$1.90
Price A$2.03 · Downside -25.2%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 5
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 100
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 6
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 78
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 85
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 36
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 32
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 20
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 36/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+614.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+154.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+75.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.2% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1,463.2% (2021) → −42.6% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

MSB screens overvalued: fair value 25% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 849 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 41 · Above median
Fair Value upside −25.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −7.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) −47.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) −33.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 390.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.19× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.19× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 15.08× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.13× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)90 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 20

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $916.06 $1,275 +39% vs MSB
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,468,000 KRW 1,661,000 KRW +13% vs MSB
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $547.89 $601.80 +10% vs MSB
Genmab A/S GMAB kr 3,581 kr 3,880 +8% vs MSB
argenx SE ARGX $971.55 $908.40 −7% vs MSB
CSL Limited CSL A$201.68 A$181.40 −10% vs MSB
Moderna, Inc MRNA $250.83 $158.70 −37% vs MSB
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$252.20 HK$152.80 −39% vs MSB
Celltrion, Inc 068270 203,000 KRW 74,945 KRW −63% vs MSB
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $69.45 $19.01 −73% vs MSB

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Mesoblast Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mesoblast Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MSB.AU

Frequently asked questions

Is Mesoblast Ltd (MSB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is A$1.52 versus a price of A$2.03, about 25% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MSB?
Our estimate for Mesoblast Ltd is A$1.52 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$2.03.
What is the quality score of MSB?
Mesoblast Ltd has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mesoblast Ltd (MSB)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of A$1.52 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario A$1.14, optimistic scenario A$1.90. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Mesoblast Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at A$1.52, about 25% lower versus a price of A$2.03 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$1.14, optimistic scenario A$1.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mesoblast Ltd (MSB)?
Mesoblast Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $120M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Mesoblast Ltd (MSB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mesoblast Ltd it is A$1.52 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of A$2.03.
Is Mesoblast Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, MSB trades above its calculated fair value: price A$2.03, fair value A$1.52, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MSB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$2.03); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.52). For Mesoblast Ltd the two are A$0.5116 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mesoblast Ltd worth?
The market values Mesoblast Ltd at about A$2.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is A$2.03; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MSB?
Our models span a range for Mesoblast Ltd: cautious scenario A$1.14, base A$1.52, optimistic A$1.90 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price A$2.03). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of MSB?
The PEG ratio of Mesoblast Ltd is 0.13 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 10, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mesoblast Ltd (MSB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mesoblast Ltd (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −9.9%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MSB from its 52-week high?
Mesoblast Ltd trades at A$2.03, about 34% below its 52-week high of A$3.07 and 15% above the low of A$1.76 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mesoblast Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Moderna, Inc, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mesoblast Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price A$2.03, calculated fair value A$1.52 (−25%), Quality Score 41/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Mesoblast Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mesoblast Ltd (MSB)?
The closing price on Nov 11, 2026 was A$2.03. Our estimate is A$1.52, about 25% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mesoblast Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$1.90). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Mesoblast Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Mesoblast Ltd (MSB)?
The market capitalisation of Mesoblast Ltd is A$2.6B (≈ $1.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mesoblast Ltd (MSB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mesoblast Ltd is 19.2 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mesoblast Ltd (MSB)?
Earnings per share at Mesoblast Ltd are A$−0.0700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Mesoblast Ltd (MSB)?
The net margin of Mesoblast Ltd is −47.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mesoblast Ltd (MSB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mesoblast Ltd is −9.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mesoblast Ltd (MSB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mesoblast Ltd is −10.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mesoblast Ltd (MSB)?
The operating margin of Mesoblast Ltd is −33.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mesoblast Ltd (MSB)?
Revenue at Mesoblast Ltd is growing +391% versus a year earlier (3y avg +154%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Mesoblast Ltd (MSB) generate?
The free cash flow of Mesoblast Ltd is −$44.7M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Mesoblast Ltd (MSB) carry?
The net debt of Mesoblast Ltd is $79.9M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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