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Mastercard Incorporated (MSCD34) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Mastercard Incorporated BRL 49.60, price BRL 93.01, upside -46.7%, quality 79 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · BR · ISIN US57636Q1040

MI Broad data Sep 28, 2026

Mastercard Incorporated

MSCD34 · SA

Quality Too ExpensiveExcellent quality, but the valuation looks stretched.

!Fair value R$49.60 · Strongly overvalued (−46.7%)
✓Quality 79/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +16.5 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 45.9% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓3.5% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 91/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R$107.46 R$47.66 Fair Value R$49.60 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$47.66 – R$107.46 · fair‑value band R$27.75 – R$78.73 · the R$93.01 price screens above the R$49.60 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

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Company profile

Mastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally.

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Mastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally. The company offers products and services for account holders, merchants, financial institutions, digital partners, businesses, governments, and other organizations, such as programs that enable issuers to provide consumers with credits to defer payments; payment products and solutions that allow its customers to access funds in deposit and other accounts; prepaid programs services; consumer bill payment services; and commercial credit, debit, and prepaid payment products and solutions. It also provides solutions that enable businesses or governments to make payments to businesses, including Virtual Card Number, which is generated dynamically from an existing account and leverages the credit limit of the funding account; and a platform to optimize supplier payment enablement campaigns for financial institutions. In addition, the company offers Mastercard Move, which partners with digital messaging and payment platforms to enable consumers to send money directly within applications to other consumers; and partners with central banks, fintechs, and financial institutions, as well as enables various cross-border payment flows. Further, it provides security solutions; marketing, personalization, and issuer and merchant loyalty services; business and operational intelligence, advanced analytics and AI, consulting and agentic solutions, and payments and portfolio optimization; digital and authentication; processing and gateway solutions; and other solutions. The company offers payment solutions and services under the MasterCard, Maestro, and Cirrus names. Mastercard Incorporated was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.

Stock analysis

Mastercard Incorporated (MSCD34) currently trades at R$93.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$49.60, 46.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$59.39 per share, and 1 of the 13 models we run sit above the R$93.01 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at R$8.67, and 12 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: R$27.75 (bear) to R$78.73 (bull), the price of R$93.01 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Mastercard Incorporated reported revenue of $32.8B in FY2025 versus $18.9B in FY2021, a compound +14.8%/yr. Reported net income was $15.0B in FY2025, compounding +14.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap R$2.3T (≈ $446B) · P/E ratio 31.9 · P/S ratio 14.6 · EPS (TTM) R$2.89 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 45.6% · Return on equity 232% · Return on assets (EBIT) 31.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −47%, MSCD34 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R$27.75 Fair Value R$49.60 Bull R$78.73
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF R$43.72 R$84.63 R$161.60 74
Owner Earnings R$40.18 R$81.54 R$161.28 72
Rev-Margin DCF R$18.37 R$28.80 R$42.21 72
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings R$40.18 R$81.54 R$161.28 72
5Y P/E Exit R$30.71 R$55.13 R$83.71 69
10Y P/E Exit R$34.74 R$59.39 R$95.60 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd R$19.55 R$104.29 R$144.47 63
Lynch FV R$28.78 R$41.11 R$53.45 61
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$5.09 R$11.12 R$18.70 65
DDM Multi-Stage R$5.09 R$9.11 R$11.59 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple R$28.03 R$37.38 R$46.72 63
P/B Multiple R$1.56 R$2.08 R$2.60 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$0.7400 R$1.00 R$1.49 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF R$43.72 R$84.63 R$161.60 74
Rev-Margin DCF R$18.37 R$28.80 R$42.21 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income R$5.50 R$8.67 R$21.96 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 79/100

Of which business quality 77 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54

Profitability 85
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 59
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 86
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 65
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 65
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 72
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 49
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 42
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.0% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.0%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+19.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.53% → 58%

MSCD34 screens overvalued: fair value 47% below the price. Compare with Visa Inc →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Synchrony Financial, SYF $71.52 $141.92 +98%
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Mastercard Incorporated · Fair Value
R$49.60 −47%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mastercard Incorporated Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MSCD34

Frequently asked questions

Is Mastercard Incorporated (MSCD34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$49.60 versus a price of R$93.01, about −47% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MSCD34?
Our model-based fair value for Mastercard Incorporated is R$49.60 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$93.01.
What is the quality score of MSCD34?
Mastercard Incorporated has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mastercard Incorporated (MSCD34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$49.60 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$27.75, optimistic scenario R$78.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mastercard Incorporated stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$49.60, about −47% upside versus a price of R$93.01 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$27.75, optimistic scenario R$78.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mastercard Incorporated (MSCD34)?
Mastercard Incorporated reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $33.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Mastercard Incorporated pay a dividend?
Mastercard Incorporated currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.50% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Mastercard Incorporated (MSCD34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mastercard Incorporated it is R$49.60 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of R$93.01. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mastercard Incorporated stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, MSCD34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$93.01, fair value R$49.60, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MSCD34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$93.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$49.60). For Mastercard Incorporated the two are R$43.41 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mastercard Incorporated worth?
The market values Mastercard Incorporated at about R$2.3T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is R$93.01; our models calculate a fair value of R$49.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MSCD34?
Our models span a range for Mastercard Incorporated: cautious scenario R$27.75, base R$49.60, optimistic R$78.73 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price R$93.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is MSCD34 from its 52-week high?
Mastercard Incorporated trades at R$93.01, about 12% below its 52-week high of R$105.86 and 20% above the low of R$77.71 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$49.60 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mastercard Incorporated?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, Bajaj Finance Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mastercard Incorporated stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price R$93.01, calculated fair value R$49.60 (−47%), Quality Score 79/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MSCD34 calculated?
We run Mastercard Incorporated through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$49.60, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Mastercard Incorporated itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mastercard Incorporated (MSCD34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$93.01. Our model-based fair value is R$49.60, about −47% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mastercard Incorporated right now?
A high-quality business (quality 79/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$78.73). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (R$27.75 to R$78.73). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Mastercard Incorporated

How large is the market capitalisation of Mastercard Incorporated (MSCD34)?
The market capitalisation of Mastercard Incorporated is R$2.3T (≈ $446B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Mastercard Incorporated (MSCD34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Mastercard Incorporated is 31.9. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Mastercard Incorporated (MSCD34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mastercard Incorporated is 14.6 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mastercard Incorporated (MSCD34)?
Earnings per share at Mastercard Incorporated are R$2.89 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mastercard Incorporated (MSCD34)?
The dividend yield of Mastercard Incorporated is 3.5% (payout 113%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mastercard Incorporated (MSCD34)?
The net margin of Mastercard Incorporated is 45.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mastercard Incorporated (MSCD34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mastercard Incorporated is 232% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mastercard Incorporated (MSCD34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mastercard Incorporated is 31.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mastercard Incorporated (MSCD34)?
The operating margin of Mastercard Incorporated is 60.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mastercard Incorporated (MSCD34)?
Revenue at Mastercard Incorporated is growing +15.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mastercard Incorporated (MSCD34)?
Earnings per share at Mastercard Incorporated are growing +21.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Mastercard Incorporated (MSCD34) generate?
The free cash flow of Mastercard Incorporated is $16.4B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Mastercard Incorporated (MSCD34) carry?
The net debt of Mastercard Incorporated is $8.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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