Mangalam Seeds Ltd (MSL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Mangalam Seeds Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹63.05 – ₹337.45 · fair‑value band ₹55.55 – ₹159.72 · the ₹149.00 price screens above the ₹114.12 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Mangalam Seeds Ltd (MSL) currently trades at ₹149.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹114.12, implying the stock looks roughly 30.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹167.61 per share, and 9 of the 26 models we run sit above the ₹149.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹54.00, and 17 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹55.55 (bear) to ₹159.72 (bull), the price of ₹149.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Mangalam Seeds Ltd reported revenue of ₹1.1B in FY2026 versus ₹408M in FY2022, a compound +28.7%/yr. Reported net income was ₹82.5M in FY2026, compounding +12.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹1.6B (≈ $17.2M) · P/E ratio 19.8 · P/S ratio 1.46 · EPS (TTM) ₹7.52 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 7.4% · Return on equity 9.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Materials peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at −23%, MSL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹55.55Fair Value ₹114.12Bull ₹159.72
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 5 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹3.44 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.2%
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+9.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 13%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Agricultural Chemicals” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Materials · 3642 stocks
Beats the sector median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside+27% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−27% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.21× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Materials median · lower = cheaper
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Is Mangalam Seeds Ltd (MSL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹114.12 versus a price of ₹149.00, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MSL?
Our model-based fair value for Mangalam Seeds Ltd is ₹114.12 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹149.00.
What is the quality score of MSL?
Mangalam Seeds Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mangalam Seeds Ltd (MSL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹114.12 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹55.55, optimistic scenario ₹159.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mangalam Seeds Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹114.12, about −23% upside versus a price of ₹149.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹55.55, optimistic scenario ₹159.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mangalam Seeds Ltd (MSL)?
Mangalam Seeds Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹1.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Mangalam Seeds Ltd pay a dividend?
Mangalam Seeds Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.09% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mangalam Seeds Ltd (MSL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mangalam Seeds Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +25.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.2 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MSL use?
Our models discount Mangalam Seeds Ltd at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 1.35, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mangalam Seeds Ltd that is +25.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mangalam Seeds Ltd (MSL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mangalam Seeds Ltd grew +22.2 % a year. The price currently implies +25.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mangalam Seeds Ltd (MSL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.57 %: that much free cash flow Mangalam Seeds Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mangalam Seeds Ltd (MSL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mangalam Seeds Ltd it is ₹114.12 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of ₹149.00. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mangalam Seeds Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, MSL trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹149.00, fair value ₹114.12, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MSL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹149.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹114.12). For Mangalam Seeds Ltd the two are ₹34.88 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mangalam Seeds Ltd worth?
The market values Mangalam Seeds Ltd at about ₹1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is ₹149.00; our models calculate a fair value of ₹114.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MSL?
Our models span a range for Mangalam Seeds Ltd: cautious scenario ₹55.55, base ₹114.12, optimistic ₹159.72 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price ₹149.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MSL?
Mangalam Seeds Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.8 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹114.12 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 9.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mangalam Seeds Ltd (MSL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mangalam Seeds Ltd (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 9.6%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MSL from its 52-week high?
Mangalam Seeds Ltd trades at ₹149.00, about 19% below its 52-week high of ₹185.00 and 45% above the low of ₹102.50 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹114.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mangalam Seeds Ltd?
From the same area (Materials) we also value Rallis India Limited, National Fertilizers Limited, KILPEST, Bhagiradha Chemicals & Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mangalam Seeds Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price ₹149.00, calculated fair value ₹114.12 (−23%), Quality Score 52/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MSL calculated?
We run Mangalam Seeds Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹114.12, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Mangalam Seeds Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Mangalam Seeds Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (₹55.55 to ₹159.72). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Mangalam Seeds Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Mangalam Seeds Ltd (MSL)?
The market capitalisation of Mangalam Seeds Ltd is ₹1.6B (≈ $17.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mangalam Seeds Ltd (MSL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mangalam Seeds Ltd is 1.46 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mangalam Seeds Ltd (MSL)?
Earnings per share at Mangalam Seeds Ltd are ₹7.52 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mangalam Seeds Ltd (MSL)?
The dividend yield of Mangalam Seeds Ltd is 0.1% (payout 1.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mangalam Seeds Ltd (MSL)?
The net margin of Mangalam Seeds Ltd is 7.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mangalam Seeds Ltd (MSL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mangalam Seeds Ltd is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mangalam Seeds Ltd (MSL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mangalam Seeds Ltd is 12.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mangalam Seeds Ltd (MSL)?
The operating margin of Mangalam Seeds Ltd is 15.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mangalam Seeds Ltd (MSL)?
Revenue at Mangalam Seeds Ltd is growing −26.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mangalam Seeds Ltd (MSL)?
Earnings per share at Mangalam Seeds Ltd are growing −62.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mangalam Seeds Ltd (MSL) carry?
The net debt of Mangalam Seeds Ltd is ₹475M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 6.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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