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Matrix Service Co (MTRX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Matrix Service Co stock $8.18, price $9.64, that is 15.1% below the price, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Industrials US

MS Matrix Service Co logo Thin data Nov 6, 2026

Matrix Service Co

MTRX · US
Expensive, in a downtrend

Our calculation puts a fair price 15% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Upbeat coverage
Profit last quarter +175% vs. a year ago.
Quality 50/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +5.3 %/yr in USD)
Insiders sold $1.8M (6M)
Fair value $8.18 · Overvalued
Loss-making · -0.3% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow over the last twelve months
Trails peers (5/13)
Narrow moat 20/100
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$15.82 $3.46 Fair Value $8.18 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.46 – $15.82 · fair‑value band $7.99 – $8.36 · the $9.64 price screens above the $8.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

Matrix Service Company provides engineering, fabrication, construction, and maintenance services to support critical energy infrastructure and industrial markets in the United States, Canada, and internationally.

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The company's Storage and Terminal Solutions segment offers engineering, procurement, fabrication, and construction services related to cryogenic, specialty tanks, and terminals for LNG, NGLs, hydrogen, ammonia, propane, butane, liquid nitrogen/liquid oxygen, and liquid petroleum; and plant work, truck and rail loading/offloading facilities, marine structures, and storage tank and terminal maintenance and repair, as well as undertakes work related to aboveground crude oil and refined product storage tanks and terminals.

This segment also provides engineered specialty tank products, including geodesic domes, aluminum internal floating roofs, floating suction and skimmer systems, roof drain systems, and floating roof seals.

Its Utility and Power Infrastructure segment undertakes power delivery work, including construction of new substations, upgrades of existing substations, and maintenance.

This segment also provides engineering, procurement, fabrication, and construction services for LNG utility peak shaving facilities; and construction services to various power generation facilities, including natural gas fired facilities.

The company's Process and Industrial Facilities segment offers plant maintenance, repair, and turnarounds, including refining and processing of crude oil, fractionating, and marketing of natural gas and natural gas liquids; and engineering, procurement, fabrication, and construction for refinery upgrades and retrofits for hydrogen processing, production, loading, and distribution facilities, as well as constructs thermal vacuum test chambers and other infrastructure for aerospace, defense, and other industries.

Matrix Service Company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Stock analysis

Matrix Service Co (MTRX) currently trades at $9.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.18, 15% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $8.20 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $9.64 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.68, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $7.99 (bear) to $8.36 (bull), the price of $9.64 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Matrix Service Co reported revenue of $874M in FY2026 versus $708M in FY2022, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$2.6M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap $275M Micro · P/E ex one-offs 37.1 · P/S ratio 0.28 · EPS (TTM) $0.2600 · Net margin −0.3% · Return on equity −1.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −9.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 0.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 20 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at −15%, MTRX screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $7.99 Fair Value $8.18 Bull $8.36
Price $9.64 · Downside -15.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0940 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF $8.03 $8.20 $8.42 82
Growth DCF $8.03 $8.18 $8.36 80
5Y Revenue Exit $7.99 $8.21 $8.49 74
All 6 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $8.03 $8.20 $8.42 82
5Y Revenue Exit $7.99 $8.21 $8.49 74
10Y Revenue Exit $7.99 $8.18 $8.41 68
Multiples
EV/Revenue $7.65 $7.85 $8.04 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.00 $2.68 $3.99 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $8.03 $8.18 $8.36 80

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 32
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 82
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 11
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 59
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 76
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 46
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 14
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 9
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 59
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $1.8M and none bought.

  • SaleKevin S CavanahVP Finance & CFO3× since May 26, 2026: 120,000 shares, avg. $13.50$1.6MJun 15, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleJustin D SheetsSVP, Enterprise Services16,991 shares at $13.50$229,379Jun 12, 2026
  • SaleJohn R HewittPresident & CEO, Director36,000 shares at $12.50$450,000May 8, 2026
  • SaleNancy E AustinVP, Chief Admin Officer4,193 shares at $11.29$47,339Feb 18, 2026
  • SaleShawn P PaynePresident, Eng & Constr3× since Nov 11, 2025: 16,500 shares, avg. $12.00$198,000Nov 25, 2025

Plus 12 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 42/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.0% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−6.5% (2021) → −1.1% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+44.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2026. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +40.8% a year for the price.

MTRX screens overvalued: fair value 15% below the price. Compare with Quanta Services, Inc →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 791 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 50 · Below median
Fair Value upside −15.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −0.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −0.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 0.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 13.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.07× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.94× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 0.32× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 193.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 7.3× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.88× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)13 · sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)65 · sector 20
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)97 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 44

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Vinci SA DG €111.60 €186.68 +67% vs MTRX
Comfort Systems USA, Inc FIX $1,018 $1,119 +10% vs MTRX
EMCOR Group EME $608.45 $524.14 −14% vs MTRX
ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios, S.A ACS €87.00 €62.21 −28% vs MTRX
Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 273,500 KRW 159,702 KRW −42% vs MTRX
Larsen & Toubro Limited LT ₹4,118 ₹2,302 −44% vs MTRX
HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft HOT €365.60 €203.86 −44% vs MTRX
APi Group APG $40.87 $19.20 −53% vs MTRX
Ferrovial N.V FER $58.71 $23.06 −61% vs MTRX
Quanta Services, Inc PWR $540.90 $162.41 −70% vs MTRX

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Matrix Service Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MTRX

Frequently asked questions

Is Matrix Service Co (MTRX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.18 versus a price of $9.64, about 15% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MTRX?
Our model-based fair value for Matrix Service Co is $8.18 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.64.
What is the quality score of MTRX?
Matrix Service Co has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.18 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.99, optimistic scenario $8.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Matrix Service Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.18, about 15% lower versus a price of $9.64 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.99, optimistic scenario $8.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
Matrix Service Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $874M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Matrix Service Co would have to grow free cash flow by +44.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.3 % per year. Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2026. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MTRX use?
Our models discount Matrix Service Co at 12.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.01, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Matrix Service Co that is +44.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Matrix Service Co (MTRX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Matrix Service Co grew +5.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +44.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Matrix Service Co (MTRX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Matrix Service Co (+44.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.52 % in the last fiscal year (free cash flow was negative over the last twelve months): that much free cash flow Matrix Service Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Matrix Service Co it is $8.18 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $9.64. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Matrix Service Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, MTRX trades above its calculated fair value: price $9.64, fair value $8.18, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MTRX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.64); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.18). For Matrix Service Co the two are $1.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Matrix Service Co worth?
The market values Matrix Service Co at about $275M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $9.64; our models calculate a fair value of $8.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MTRX?
Our models span a range for Matrix Service Co: cautious scenario $7.99, base $8.18, optimistic $8.36 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $9.64). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of MTRX?
The PEG ratio of Matrix Service Co is 0.88 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Matrix Service Co (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −1.8%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MTRX from its 52-week high?
Matrix Service Co trades at $9.64, about 33% below its 52-week high of $14.32 and 12% above the low of $8.62 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Matrix Service Co?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Larsen & Toubro Limited, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Matrix Service Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $9.64, calculated fair value $8.18 (−15%), Quality Score 50/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MTRX calculated?
We run Matrix Service Co through 6 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $8.18 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Matrix Service Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $9.64. Our model-based fair value is $8.18, about 15% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Matrix Service Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.36). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band ($7.99 to $8.36), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Matrix Service Co

How large is the market capitalisation of Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
The market capitalisation of Matrix Service Co is $275M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Matrix Service Co (MTRX) excluding one-off items?
Excluding one-off items, the price-to-earnings ratio of Matrix Service Co is 37.1 (fiscal year 2026, the reported result was a loss).
What is the P/S ratio of Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Matrix Service Co is 0.28 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
Earnings per share at Matrix Service Co are $0.2600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
The net margin of Matrix Service Co is −0.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Matrix Service Co is −1.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Matrix Service Co is −9.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
The operating margin of Matrix Service Co is 0.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
Revenue at Matrix Service Co is growing +13.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
Earnings per share at Matrix Service Co are growing +175% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Matrix Service Co (MTRX) hold?
Matrix Service Co holds more cash than debt, $204M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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