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Matrix Service Co (MTRX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Matrix Service Co $29.34, price $9.78, upside +200.0%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · US · ISIN US5768531056

MS Matrix Service Co logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Matrix Service Co

MTRX · US

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value $29.34 · Strongly undervalued (+200%)
!Quality 53/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −6.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -1.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (5/12)
!Narrow moat 17/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 17 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$15.82 $3.46 Fair Value $29.34 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.46 – $15.82 · fair‑value band $22.75 – $37.50 · the $9.78 price screens below the $29.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Matrix Service Company provides engineering, fabrication, construction, and maintenance services to support critical energy infrastructure and industrial markets in the United States, Canada, and internationally.

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Matrix Service Company provides engineering, fabrication, construction, and maintenance services to support critical energy infrastructure and industrial markets in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company's Storage and Terminal Solutions segment offers engineering, procurement, fabrication, and construction services related to cryogenic, specialty tanks, and terminals for LNG, NGLs, hydrogen, ammonia, propane, butane, liquid nitrogen/liquid oxygen, and liquid petroleum; and plant work, truck and rail loading/offloading facilities, marine structures, and storage tank and terminal maintenance and repair, as well as undertakes work related to aboveground crude oil and refined product storage tanks and terminals. This segment also provides engineered specialty tank products, including geodesic domes, aluminum internal floating roofs, floating suction and skimmer systems, roof drain systems, and floating roof seals. Its Utility and Power Infrastructure segment undertakes power delivery work, including construction of new substations, upgrades of existing substations, and maintenance. This segment also provides engineering, procurement, fabrication, and construction services for LNG utility peak shaving facilities; and construction services to various power generation facilities, including natural gas fired facilities. The company's Process and Industrial Facilities segment offers plant maintenance, repair, and turnarounds, including refining and processing of crude oil, fractionating, and marketing of natural gas and natural gas liquids; and engineering, procurement, fabrication, and construction for refinery upgrades and retrofits for hydrogen processing, production, loading, and distribution facilities, as well as constructs thermal vacuum test chambers and other infrastructure for aerospace, defense, and other industries. Matrix Service Company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Stock analysis

Matrix Service Co (MTRX) currently trades at $9.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $29.34, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $48.57 per share, and 6 of the 7 models we run sit above the $9.78 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.40, and 1 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $22.75 (bear) to $37.50 (bull), the price of $9.78 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Matrix Service Co reported revenue of $769M in FY2025 versus $673M in FY2021, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$29.5M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $393M · P/S ratio 0.47 · EPS (TTM) $−0.5300 · Net margin −3.8% · Return on equity −10.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −11.0% · Operating margin 0.9% · Revenue (TTM) $845M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 200%, MTRX screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $22.75 Fair Value $29.34 Bull $37.50
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $43.38 $57.61 $75.92 79
Growth DCF $43.79 $56.41 $71.78 78
5Y Revenue Exit $35.01 $47.04 $61.77 71
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $43.38 $57.61 $75.92 79
5Y Revenue Exit $35.01 $47.04 $61.77 71
10Y Revenue Exit $37.59 $48.57 $62.19 66
Multiples
EV/Revenue $30.60 $40.44 $50.29 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.54 $3.40 $5.07 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $43.79 $56.41 $71.78 78
Rev-Margin DCF $35.01 $47.54 $61.64 71

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21

Profitability 22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 36
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 73
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 58
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 82
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 45
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 16
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 68
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 29/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −5.5% a year
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−3.3% (2020) → −4.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 839 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside +200% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.07× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.76× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.47× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 3.6× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.34× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)17 · sector 11
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)97 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 41

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Quanta Services, Inc PWR $634.90 $163.08 −74%
Vinci SA DG €110.50 €185.62 +68%
Comfort Systems USA, Inc FIX $1,626 $1,122 −31%
Larsen & Toubro Limited LT ₹3,930 ₹1,994 −49%
Ferrovial N.V FER $56.30 $24.01 −57%
Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 367,000 KRW 256,792 KRW −30%
HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft HOT €397.00 €203.87 −49%
ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios, S.A ACS €92.75 €75.04 −19%
EMCOR Group EME $751.80 $521.87 −31%
MasTec, Inc MTZ $217.52 $106.05 −51%

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Matrix Service Co · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Matrix Service Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MTRX

Frequently asked questions

Is Matrix Service Co (MTRX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $29.34 versus a price of $9.78, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MTRX?
Our model-based fair value for Matrix Service Co is $29.34 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.78.
What is the quality score of MTRX?
Matrix Service Co has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $29.34 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.75, optimistic scenario $37.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Matrix Service Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $29.34, about +200% upside versus a price of $9.78 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $22.75, optimistic scenario $37.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
Matrix Service Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $845M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Matrix Service Co would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -6.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MTRX use?
Our models discount Matrix Service Co at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.99, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Matrix Service Co that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Matrix Service Co (MTRX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Matrix Service Co grew -6.9 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Matrix Service Co (MTRX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Matrix Service Co (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 40.42 %: that much free cash flow Matrix Service Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Matrix Service Co it is $29.34 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $9.78. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Matrix Service Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MTRX trades below its calculated fair value: price $9.78, fair value $29.34, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MTRX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.78); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($29.34). For Matrix Service Co the two are $19.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Matrix Service Co worth?
The market values Matrix Service Co at about $393M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $9.78; our models calculate a fair value of $29.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MTRX?
Our models span a range for Matrix Service Co: cautious scenario $22.75, base $29.34, optimistic $37.50 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $9.78). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of MTRX?
The PEG ratio of Matrix Service Co is 1.34 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Matrix Service Co (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −10.3%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MTRX from its 52-week high?
Matrix Service Co trades at $9.78, about 37% below its 52-week high of $15.60 and at the low of $9.78 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $29.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Matrix Service Co?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Matrix Service Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $9.78, calculated fair value $29.34 (+200%), Quality Score 53/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MTRX calculated?
We run Matrix Service Co through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $29.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Matrix Service Co currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $9.78. Our model-based fair value is $29.34, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Matrix Service Co right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($22.75). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of Matrix Service Co

How large is the market capitalisation of Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
The market capitalisation of Matrix Service Co is $393M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Matrix Service Co is 0.47 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
Earnings per share at Matrix Service Co are $−0.5300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
The net margin of Matrix Service Co is −3.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Matrix Service Co is −10.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Matrix Service Co is −11.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
The operating margin of Matrix Service Co is 0.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
Revenue at Matrix Service Co is growing +3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Matrix Service Co (MTRX)?
Earnings per share at Matrix Service Co are growing +175% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Matrix Service Co (MTRX) hold?
Matrix Service Co holds more cash than debt, $203M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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