Mud & Hound Public Company Limited (MUD) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · TH · Market cap 969M THB (≈ $29.3M)
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 14, 2026
From 10 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Share price −12.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and trading another 21% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (0.6200 THB to 1.42 THB) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.3900 THB – 3.02 THB · fair‑value band 0.6200 THB – 1.42 THB · the 0.7500 THB price screens above the 0.6200 THB fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
Analysis
Mud & Hound Public Company Limited (MUD) currently trades at 0.7500 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.6200 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 17.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Mud & Hound Public Company Limited generated revenue of 2.3B THB at a net margin of -32.9%. Revenue declined 17.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -60.8%. Net debt stands at 2.1B THB. Fundamentals as of Aug 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 0.6200 THB (bear case) to 1.42 THB (bull case); at 0.7500 THB, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 108% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -17%, MUD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 10 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (1.76 THB) versus Multiples (0.7100 THB). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Mud & Hound Public Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail of food and beverages in Thailand and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Food and Beverage, and Garment. The Food and Beverage segment produces and distributes snacks and drinks, as well as operates restaurants.
Full company description
Mud & Hound Public Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail of food and beverages in Thailand and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Food and Beverage, and Garment. The Food and Beverage segment produces and distributes snacks and drinks, as well as operates restaurants. The Garment segment produces and distributes clothing and leather work products. It operates as an authorized franchisee for Au Bon Pain bakery café and Dunkin' Donuts; and owns brands, such as Greyhound Café, Greyhound Original, M Kitchen, Le Grand Véfour, and Another Hound Café. In addition, the company provides management services. The company was formerly known as Mudman Public Company Limited and changed its name to Mud & Hound Public Company Limited in June 2021. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Bangkok, Thailand. Mud & Hound Public Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of Sub Sri Thai Public Company Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mud & Hound Public Company Limited reported revenue of 2.3B THB in FY2025 versus 2.2B THB in FY2021, a compound +1.8%/yr. Reported net income was −672M THB in FY2025.
MUD screens 21% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Peer Group
Restaurants · 232 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCD | $260.06 | $149.03 | -43% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $107.26 | $35.83 | -67% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $38.03 | $17.92 | -53% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $154.41 | $58.17 | -62% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.50 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $218.86 | $173.68 | -21% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $47.18 | $54.27 | +15% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $198.99 | $104.89 | -47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $51.02 | $12.80 | -75% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $332.06 | $227.31 | -32% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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