Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc (CMG) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $46.7B
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc
CMG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $18.10 to $18.43 (+1.8%) since Jul 15, 2026. Share price −1.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 45% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($11.03 to $34.53). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.08 – $68.55 · fair‑value band $11.03 – $34.53 · the $33.71 price screens above the $18.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc (CMG) currently trades at $33.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.43, implying the stock looks roughly 45.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc generated revenue of $12.1B at a net margin of 12.0%. Revenue grew 7.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 49.2%. Net debt stands at $9.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $11.03 (bear case) to $34.53 (bull case); at $33.71, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -55% fair-value upside, at -45%, CMG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($30.16) versus Asset-Based ($1.48). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. It sells food and beverages, such as burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, as well as kids's meals, chips, and sides.
Full company description
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. It sells food and beverages, such as burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, as well as kids's meals, chips, and sides. It offers Mexican-inspired meals using responsibly sourced meats, such as chicken, beef, and pork branded as Responsibly Raised. The company also provides digital ordering through its website, mobile app, and third-party delivery platforms. It has operations in the United States, Canada, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc reported revenue of $11.9B in FY2025 versus $7.5B in FY2021, a compound +12.1%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding +23.8%/yr from FY2021.
CMG screens 45% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Why Chipotle (CMG) Stock Is Trading Up Today
- Chipotle Stock Jumped on Improving Traffic. Cyclospora Impact Might Be Overstated.
Peer Group
Restaurants · 229 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $105.49 | $35.83 | -66% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $163.54 | $59.66 | -64% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.19 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $195.74 | $173.68 | -11% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $43.90 | $55.10 | +26% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $197.03 | $104.89 | -47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $68.36 | $12.80 | -81% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $322.18 | $231.96 | -28% |
| CAVA Group CAVA | $68.85 | $10.69 | -84% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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