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McDonald's Corp (MCDS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Jun 17, 2026: fair value of McDonald's Corp C$15.87, price C$24.01, upside -33.9%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · CA · Home US

MS McDonald's Corp logo Some data Sep 28, 2026

McDonald's Corp

MCDS · NEO

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value C$15.87 · Overvalued (−33.9%)
✓Quality 68/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +7.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 32.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (4/9)
✓Wide moat 85/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 15 out of 100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

C$28.63 C$18.92 Fair Value C$15.87 Jul 2022 Jun 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

47‑month range C$18.92 – C$28.63 · fair‑value band C$8.94 – C$25.74 · the C$24.01 price screens above the C$15.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

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Company profile

McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally.

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McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, cookies, pies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages; and full or limited breakfast, as well as sells various other products during limited-time promotions. The company owns and operates franchised restaurants under various structures, including conventional franchise, developmental license, or affiliate. McDonald's Corporation was founded in 1940 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.

Stock analysis

McDonald's Corp CDR (MCDS) currently trades at C$24.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$15.87, 33.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$19.93 per share, and 1 of the 19 models we run sit above the C$24.01 price.

Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at C$2.92, and 18 of the 19 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: C$8.94 (bear) to C$25.74 (bull), the price of C$24.01 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

McDonald's Corp CDR reported revenue of $26.9B in FY2025 versus $23.2B in FY2021, a compound +3.7%/yr. Reported net income was $8.6B in FY2025, compounding +3.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap C$278B (≈ $195B) · P/E ratio 23.3 · P/S ratio 7.42 · EPS (TTM) C$1.03 · Net margin 31.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 20.4% · Operating margin 46.9% · Revenue (TTM) $26.3B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −34%, MCDS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear C$8.94 Fair Value C$15.87 Bull C$25.74
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF C$6.67 C$12.18 C$20.16 78
Growth DCF C$6.98 C$12.03 C$19.02 77
Owner Earnings C$6.97 C$12.61 C$20.79 74
All 20 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF C$6.67 C$12.18 C$20.16 78
Owner Earnings C$6.97 C$12.61 C$20.79 74
5Y Revenue Exit C$0.9300 C$2.72 C$4.81 68
5Y EBITDA Exit C$8.65 C$16.63 C$25.64 73
5Y P/E Exit C$9.37 C$17.93 C$26.56 69
10Y Revenue Exit C$2.87 C$4.91 C$7.26 66
10Y EBITDA Exit C$7.81 C$14.37 C$22.61 67
10Y P/E Exit C$8.26 C$15.25 C$23.29 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd C$7.46 C$18.89 C$24.56 65
PEG = 1.0 C$3.50 C$5.00 C$6.50 57
EPV C$6.92 C$8.91 C$10.65 71
Multiples
P/E Multiple C$18.10 C$24.13 C$30.16 63
P/S Multiple C$3.10 C$4.13 C$5.16 58
EV/EBIT C$16.41 C$23.55 C$30.69 65
EV/EBITDA C$11.80 C$17.41 C$23.01 66
EV/Revenue n/a n/a C$0.3500 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF C$6.98 C$12.03 C$19.02 77
Rev-Margin DCF C$0.9300 C$2.92 C$5.18 68
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder C$7.49 C$10.35 C$13.41 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E C$13.95 C$19.93 C$25.91 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 68/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 64
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 76
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 57
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 97
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 23
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 90
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 79/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.38% → 46%

MCDS screens overvalued: fair value 34% below the price. Compare with Starbucks Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 207 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −33.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets 13.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 32.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 46.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 3.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 29.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 23.3× · Pricier than median
P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
PEG 2.48× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 36
FUTURE (revenue growth)15 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)37 · sector 64

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Starbucks Corporation SBUX $93.96 $35.83 −62%
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG $32.32 $35.55 +10%
Yum! Brands, Inc YUM $138.28 $76.78 −44%
Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR $71.48 $73.34 +3%
Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI $199.75 $175.20 −12%
Yum China Holdings YUMC $40.80 $50.76 +24%
Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH $158.45 $128.55 −19%
Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ $301.81 $233.22 −23%
Dutch Bros Inc BROS $37.89 $10.27 −73%
Guming Holdings 1364 HK$21.64 HK$31.58 +46%

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C$15.87 −34%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "McDonald's Corp CDR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MCDS

Frequently asked questions

Is McDonald's Corp (MCDS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$15.87 versus the last price from Jun 17, 2026 of C$24.01, about −34% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MCDS?
Our model-based fair value for McDonald's Corp CDR is C$15.87 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jun 17, 2026): C$24.01.
What is the quality score of MCDS?
McDonald's Corp CDR has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for McDonald's Corp (MCDS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$15.87 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$8.94, optimistic scenario C$25.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the McDonald's Corp CDR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$15.87, about −34% upside versus the last price from Jun 17, 2026 of C$24.01 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$8.94, optimistic scenario C$25.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of McDonald's Corp (MCDS)?
McDonald's Corp CDR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $26.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of McDonald's Corp (MCDS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For McDonald's Corp CDR it is C$15.87 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of C$24.01. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is McDonald's Corp CDR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, MCDS trades above its calculated fair value: price C$24.01, fair value C$15.87, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MCDS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$24.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$15.87). For McDonald's Corp CDR the two are C$8.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is McDonald's Corp CDR worth?
The market values McDonald's Corp CDR at about C$278B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is C$24.01; our models calculate a fair value of C$15.87 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MCDS?
Our models span a range for McDonald's Corp CDR: cautious scenario C$8.94, base C$15.87, optimistic C$25.74 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price C$24.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MCDS?
McDonald's Corp CDR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.3 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$15.87 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.5.
What is the PEG ratio of MCDS?
The PEG ratio of McDonald's Corp CDR is 2.48 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of McDonald's Corp (MCDS)?
Balance-sheet figures for McDonald's Corp CDR (as of Sep 28, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MCDS from its 52-week high?
McDonald's Corp CDR trades at C$24.01, about 16% below its 52-week high of C$28.63 and 4% above the low of C$23.07 (as of Jun 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$15.87 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to McDonald's Corp CDR?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, Restaurant Brands International Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is McDonald's Corp CDR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price C$24.01, calculated fair value C$15.87 (−34%), Quality Score 68/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MCDS calculated?
We run McDonald's Corp CDR through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$15.87, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. McDonald's Corp CDR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of McDonald's Corp (MCDS)?
The latest price we hold is from Jun 17, 2026 and stands at C$24.01. Our model-based fair value is C$15.87, about −34% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with McDonald's Corp CDR right now?
The model range is unusually wide (C$8.94 to C$25.74). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of McDonald's Corp CDR

How large is the market capitalisation of McDonald's Corp (MCDS)?
The market capitalisation of McDonald's Corp CDR is C$278B (≈ $195B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of McDonald's Corp (MCDS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of McDonald's Corp CDR is 7.42 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of McDonald's Corp (MCDS)?
Earnings per share at McDonald's Corp CDR are C$1.03 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of McDonald's Corp (MCDS)?
The net margin of McDonald's Corp CDR is 31.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of McDonald's Corp (MCDS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of McDonald's Corp CDR is 20.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of McDonald's Corp (MCDS)?
The operating margin of McDonald's Corp CDR is 46.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at McDonald's Corp (MCDS)?
Revenue at McDonald's Corp CDR is growing +3.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at McDonald's Corp (MCDS)?
Earnings per share at McDonald's Corp CDR are growing +1.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does McDonald's Corp (MCDS) generate?
The free cash flow of McDonald's Corp CDR is $7.2B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does McDonald's Corp (MCDS) carry?
The net debt of McDonald's Corp CDR is $39.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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