CPG Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · PH · Market cap 4.3B PHP
Fair value as of: Jul 10, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 10, 2026, revised from 1.65 PHP to 1.70 PHP (+3.0%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +3.0% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 150% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (0.8030 PHP). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The model range is unusually wide (0.8030 PHP to 2.12 PHP). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.2195 PHP – 0.8100 PHP · fair‑value band 0.8030 PHP – 2.12 PHP · the 0.6800 PHP price screens below the 1.70 PHP fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 10, 2026.
Analysis
CPG (CPG) currently trades at 0.6800 PHP, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.70 PHP, implying the stock looks roughly 150.0% undervalued today. We read business quality at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 4.2. Fundamentals as of Jul 10, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 0.8030 PHP (bear case) to 2.12 PHP (bull case); at 0.6800 PHP, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 62% fair-value upside, at 150%, CPG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (1.76 PHP) versus Dividend Discount (0.3565 PHP). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
CPG reported revenue of 14.6B PHP in FY2024 versus 10.8B PHP in FY2020, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was 2.4B PHP in FY2024, compounding +32.4%/yr from FY2020.
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Peer Group
Real Estate Operations · 40 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate Operations median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 10, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMPH SMPH | 18.24 PHP | 17.53 PHP | -4% |
| ALI ALI | 16.00 PHP | 19.27 PHP | +20% |
| RLC RLC | 16.34 PHP | 40.85 PHP | +150% |
| DDPR DDPR | 93.00 PHP | 112.27 PHP | +21% |
| ALLHC ALLHC | 1.16 PHP | 0.7200 PHP | -38% |
| DMW DMW | 5.00 PHP | 5.83 PHP | +17% |
| FLI FLI | 0.7000 PHP | 1.75 PHP | +150% |
| SLI SLI | 2.08 PHP | 5.20 PHP | +150% |
| PT Rimo International Lestari Tbk RIMO | 50.00 IDR | 80.85 IDR | +62% |
| BEL BEL | 1.21 PHP | 3.03 PHP | +150% |
Compare CPG with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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