Yum China Holdings (YUMC) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $14.8B
Yum China Holdings
YUMC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from $54.01 to $55.10 (+2.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +14.1% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 14% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($35.49 to $74.25) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from $35.49 (bear) to $74.25 (bull), base $55.10. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 67/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $28.06 – $64.49 · fair‑value band $35.49 – $74.25 · the $48.19 price screens below the $55.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Yum China Holdings (YUMC) currently trades at $48.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $55.10, implying the stock looks roughly 14.3% undervalued today. We read business quality at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Yum China Holdings generated revenue of $12.1B at a net margin of 7.8%. Revenue grew 9.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.3%. Net debt stands at $1.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $35.49 (bear case) to $74.25 (bull case); at $48.19, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -55% fair-value upside, at 14%, YUMC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($54.00) versus Asset-Based ($10.47). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Yum China Holdings, Inc. owns, operates, and franchises restaurants in the People's Republic of China. The company operates KFC, Pizza Hut, and All Other segments. It operates restaurants under the KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, Lavazza, Little Sheep, and Huang Ji Huang concepts. The company also offers online food deliver services. Yum China Holdings, Inc.
Full company description
Yum China Holdings, Inc. owns, operates, and franchises restaurants in the People's Republic of China. The company operates KFC, Pizza Hut, and All Other segments. It operates restaurants under the KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, Lavazza, Little Sheep, and Huang Ji Huang concepts. The company also offers online food deliver services. Yum China Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Yum China Holdings reported revenue of $11.8B in FY2025 versus $9.9B in FY2021, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was $929M in FY2025, compounding −1.6%/yr from FY2021.
Watch YUMC: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Yum China (YUMC) Is Up 11.0% After Earnings Beat And Expanded Capital Returns Plan - What's Changed
- Yum China Holdings (YUMC) Could Be 21% Undervalued As Q2 Beat Fuels Optimism
- Yum China Growth Drivers After a Strong Q2 Earnings Beat
- Is YUMC Stock Attractive After Earnings Growth and a Low Valuation?
Peer Group
Restaurants · 229 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $105.49 | $35.83 | -66% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $34.63 | $18.43 | -47% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $163.54 | $59.66 | -64% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.19 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $195.74 | $173.68 | -11% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $197.03 | $104.89 | -47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $68.36 | $12.80 | -81% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $322.18 | $231.96 | -28% |
| CAVA Group CAVA | $68.85 | $10.69 | -84% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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