Marvipol S.A. (MVP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Marvipol S.A. PLN 15.32, price PLN 8.04, upside +90.6%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 3.64 PLN – 10.25 PLN · fair‑value band 12.58 PLN – 24.79 PLN · the 8.04 PLN price screens below the 15.32 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Marvipol Development S.A. develops residential projects in Poland. It operates through Development, Warehouse, and Other Real Estate Assets segments. The company develops multi-family housing projects, including apartments, as well as commercial premises.
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Marvipol Development S.A. develops residential projects in Poland. It operates through Development, Warehouse, and Other Real Estate Assets segments. The company develops multi-family housing projects, including apartments, as well as commercial premises. It also engages in the investment in construction and commercialization projects for sale; and undeveloped real estate projects. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland. Marvipol Development S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Ksiazek Holding Sp. Z.o.o.
Stock analysis
Marvipol S.A. (MVP) currently trades at 8.04 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 15.32 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 47.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 26.56 PLN per share, and 14 of the 16 models we run sit above the 8.04 PLN price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 6.64 PLN, and 2 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 12.58 PLN (bear) to 24.79 PLN (bull), the price of 8.04 PLN sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Marvipol S.A. reported revenue of 548M PLN in FY2025 versus 394M PLN in FY2021, a compound +8.6%/yr. Reported net income was 58.2M PLN in FY2025, compounding −11.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 335M PLN (≈ $87.1M) · P/E ratio 5.1 · P/S ratio 0.54 · EPS (TTM) 1.58 PLN · Dividend yield 7.0% · Net margin 10.6% · Return on equity 9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at 91%, MVP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 12.58 PLNFair Value 15.32 PLNBull 24.79 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.16 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.4% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+0.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−6% vs 2%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 18%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.2%/yr over ~9Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 578 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+91% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)12% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)−9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)7.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.62× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Marvipol S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MVP
Frequently asked questions
Is Marvipol S.A. (MVP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 15.32 PLN versus a price of 8.04 PLN, about +91% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MVP?
Our model-based fair value for Marvipol S.A. is 15.32 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 8.04 PLN.
What is the quality score of MVP?
Marvipol S.A. has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Marvipol S.A. (MVP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 15.32 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 12.58 PLN, optimistic scenario 24.79 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Marvipol S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 15.32 PLN, about +91% upside versus a price of 8.04 PLN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 12.58 PLN, optimistic scenario 24.79 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Marvipol S.A. (MVP)?
Marvipol S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 546M PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Marvipol S.A. pay a dividend?
Marvipol S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.96% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Marvipol S.A. (MVP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Marvipol S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +8.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MVP use?
Our models discount Marvipol S.A. at 12.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.67, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Marvipol S.A. that is +8.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Marvipol S.A. (MVP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Marvipol S.A. grew +4.9 % a year. The price currently implies +8.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Marvipol S.A. (MVP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Marvipol S.A. (+8.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Marvipol S.A. (MVP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.12 %: that much free cash flow Marvipol S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Marvipol S.A. (MVP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Marvipol S.A. it is 15.32 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 8.04 PLN. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Marvipol S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MVP trades below its calculated fair value: price 8.04 PLN, fair value 15.32 PLN, a gap of about +91% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MVP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (8.04 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (15.32 PLN). For Marvipol S.A. the two are 7.28 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Marvipol S.A. worth?
The market values Marvipol S.A. at about 335M PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 8.04 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 15.32 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MVP?
Our models span a range for Marvipol S.A.: cautious scenario 12.58 PLN, base 15.32 PLN, optimistic 24.79 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 8.04 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MVP?
Marvipol S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 15.32 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.1, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 3.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Marvipol S.A. (MVP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Marvipol S.A. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.3%, debt of 0.62 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MVP from its 52-week high?
Marvipol S.A. trades at 8.04 PLN, about 22% below its 52-week high of 10.25 PLN and 16% above the low of 6.96 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 15.32 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Marvipol S.A.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, Vinhomes Joint Stock Company, CK Asset Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Marvipol S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 8.04 PLN, calculated fair value 15.32 PLN (+91%), Quality Score 64/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MVP calculated?
We run Marvipol S.A. through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 15.32 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Marvipol S.A. currently trades 91 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Marvipol S.A. (MVP)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 8.04 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 15.32 PLN, about +91% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Marvipol S.A. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (12.58 PLN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (12.58 PLN to 24.79 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Marvipol S.A. (MVP) come from?
Earnings per share at Marvipol S.A. grew −2.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −6.3 %, EBIT margin +5.4 %, tax rate −1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Marvipol S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Marvipol S.A. (MVP)?
The market capitalisation of Marvipol S.A. is 335M PLN (≈ $87.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Marvipol S.A. (MVP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Marvipol S.A. is 0.54 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Marvipol S.A. (MVP)?
Earnings per share at Marvipol S.A. are 1.58 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Marvipol S.A. (MVP)?
The dividend yield of Marvipol S.A. is 7.0% (payout 35.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Marvipol S.A. (MVP)?
The net margin of Marvipol S.A. is 10.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Marvipol S.A. (MVP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Marvipol S.A. is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Marvipol S.A. (MVP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Marvipol S.A. is 6.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Marvipol S.A. (MVP)?
The operating margin of Marvipol S.A. is −9.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Marvipol S.A. (MVP)?
Revenue at Marvipol S.A. is growing −6.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Marvipol S.A. (MVP)?
Earnings per share at Marvipol S.A. are growing −98.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Marvipol S.A. (MVP) carry?
The net debt of Marvipol S.A. is 238M PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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