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Mexco Energy Corporation (MXC) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · US · Market cap $16.2M

ME Mexco Energy Corporation logo Mexco Energy Corporation MXC · US
Price$9.31
Fair Value$11.27
Upside+21.0%
Quality60/100
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Expensive Growth
Solidly profitable · 18.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (10/15)
Narrow moat 43/100
Evidence: High Range $7.72 – $14.65 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Share price +13.2% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 21% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range ($7.72 to $14.65) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$29.07 $6.23 Fair Value $11.27 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $6.23 – $29.07 · fair‑value band $7.72 – $14.65 · the $9.31 price screens below the $11.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

Mexco Energy Corporation (MXC) currently trades at $9.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.27, implying the stock looks roughly 21.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Mexco Energy Corporation generated revenue of $6.9M at a net margin of 18.1%. Revenue declined 26.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.6M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $7.72 (bear case) to $14.65 (bull case); at $9.31, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at 21%, MXC screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $4.34 $5.53 $6.93 80
Residual Income $7.01 $7.32 $7.71 76
Rev-Margin DCF $3.98 $5.60 $7.48 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $4.34 $5.72 $7.46 38
Owner Earnings $3.91 $5.12 $6.65 31
5Y Revenue Exit $3.98 $5.57 $7.56 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $7.19 $11.59 $16.75 41
5Y P/E Exit $6.75 $10.75 $14.97 38
10Y Revenue Exit $4.03 $5.38 $7.14 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $5.85 $8.95 $13.14 37
10Y P/E Exit $5.61 $8.46 $11.98 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $5.69 $18.09 $24.10 54
Lynch FV $3.98 $5.69 $7.40 50
PEG = 1.0 $3.98 $5.69 $7.40 46
EPV $6.60 $7.29 $7.85 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.7100 $1.19 $1.55 70
DDM Multi-Stage $0.7100 $1.08 $1.28 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple $8.79 $11.72 $14.65 63
P/S Multiple $3.24 $4.32 $5.39 58
P/B Multiple $10.67 $14.23 $17.78 55
EV/EBIT $8.01 $10.39 $12.77 53
EV/EBITDA $10.54 $13.77 $17.00 54
EV/Revenue $3.88 $5.17 $6.47 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.57 $6.13 $9.15 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $4.34 $5.53 $6.93 80
Rev-Margin DCF $3.98 $5.60 $7.48 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $7.01 $7.32 $7.71 76
ROIC Compounder $6.60 $7.29 $7.85 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $7.72 $11.02 $14.33 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($11.02) versus Dividend Discount ($1.08). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $6.9M
Revenue growth (YoY) -26.8%
Net margin 18.1%
Return on equity 6.7%
Free cash flow $853K FY2025
P/E ratio 13.2
More key figures
Operating margin 6.6%
EPS (TTM) $0.6000
EPS growth (YoY) -90.9%
Net cash $1.6M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 48
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 56
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 64
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 85
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 16
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 34
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 96
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Mexco Energy Corporation, an independent oil and gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, condensate, and natural gas liquids in the United States.

Full company description

Mexco Energy Corporation, an independent oil and gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, condensate, and natural gas liquids in the United States. It owns partial interests in wells located in the states of Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Alabama, Arkansas, Wyoming, Kansas, Colorado, Montana, Virginia, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Ohio. It also owns leasehold mineral, royalty, and other interests. The company was formerly known as Miller Oil Company and changed its name to Mexco Energy Corporation in April 1980. Mexco Energy Corporation was incorporated in 1972 and is based in Midland, Texas.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Mexco Energy Corporation reported revenue of $7.4M in FY2025 versus $2.8M in FY2021, a compound +27.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.7M in FY2025, compounding +82.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$7.4M
Latest YoY
+11.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+21.9%
Avg. growth/yr (29Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.0%
Revenue +27.3%/yr
FY21 $2.8M
FY22 $6.6M
FY23 $9.6M
FY24 $6.6M
FY25 $7.4M
Net income +82.0%/yr
FY21 $156K
FY22 $2.9M
FY23 $4.7M
FY24 $1.3M
FY25 $1.7M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mexco Energy Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MXC

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +21% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Below median
Revenue growth -27% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.86× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 2.34× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 19.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 3.5× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.63× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 61 · sector 14
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 27 · sector 0
HEALTH 100 · sector 87
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 66

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CNOOC Limited 600938 ¥28.97 ¥32.55 +12%
ConocoPhillips explores for, COP $109.04 $91.79 -16%
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ $42.86 $31.54 -26%
EOG Resources, Inc EOG $139.89 $130.19 -7%
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY $54.86 $30.68 -44%
Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG $183.39 $106.12 -42%
Devon Energy Corporation DVN $43.83 $27.06 -38%
Woodside Energy Group WDS A$30.46 A$20.71 -32%
EQT Corporation EQT $48.85 $42.85 -12%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL $415.70 $79.20 -81%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Mexco Energy Corporation (MXC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.27 versus a price of $9.31, about +21% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MXC?
Our model-based fair value for Mexco Energy Corporation is $11.27 (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $9.31.
What is the quality score of MXC?
Mexco Energy Corporation has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Mexco Energy Corporation (MXC)?
Mexco Energy Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.9M (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MXC?
The net profit margin of Mexco Energy Corporation is about 18.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 18.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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