NACCO Industries Inc (NC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of NACCO Industries Inc $28.56, price $37.72, upside -24.3%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $20.93 – $58.53 · fair‑value band $20.86 – $33.16 · the $37.72 price screens above the $28.56 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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NACCO Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the natural resources business. The company operates through three segments: Utility Coal Mining, Contract Mining, and Minerals and Royalties. The Utility Coal Mining operates surface coal mines under long-term contracts for power plants and a synfuels plant.
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NACCO Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the natural resources business. The company operates through three segments: Utility Coal Mining, Contract Mining, and Minerals and Royalties. The Utility Coal Mining operates surface coal mines under long-term contracts for power plants and a synfuels plant. This segment operates coal mines in North Dakota and Mississippi. The Contract Mining segment provides value-added contract mining and other services for producers of industrial minerals and products; contract mining services for independently owned mines and quarries in Florida, Arkansas, and Nebraska; and dragline services. The Minerals and Royalties segment is involved in the leasing of its royalty and mineral interests to third-party exploration and production companies, and other mining companies, which grants them the rights to explore, develop, mine, produce, market, and sell gas, oil, and coal. The company also provides natural resource restoration and reclamation services that include stream and wetland mitigation solutions. NACCO Industries, Inc. was founded in 1913 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.
Stock analysis
NACCO Industries Inc (NC) currently trades at $37.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.56, implying the stock looks roughly 32.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $39.94 per share, and 4 of the 15 models we run sit above the $37.72 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $4.03, and 11 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $20.86 (bear) to $33.16 (bull), the price of $37.72 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
NACCO Industries Inc reported revenue of $277M in FY2025 versus $192M in FY2021, a compound +9.6%/yr. Reported net income was $17.6M in FY2025, compounding −22.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $376M · P/E ratio 17.4 · P/S ratio 1.11 · EPS (TTM) $2.86 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 6.3% · Return on equity 5.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at −24%, NC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $20.86Fair Value $28.56Bull $33.16
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.36 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −11.3% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−13.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−16% vs −5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → −15%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 12.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+49.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +46.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 101 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside−21% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Below median
Return on assets−4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)−10% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.21× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
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Is NACCO Industries Inc (NC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $28.56 versus a price of $37.72, about −24% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NC?
Our model-based fair value for NACCO Industries Inc is $28.56 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $37.72.
What is the quality score of NC?
NACCO Industries Inc has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NACCO Industries Inc (NC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $28.56 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $20.86, optimistic scenario $33.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NACCO Industries Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $28.56, about −24% upside versus a price of $37.72 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $20.86, optimistic scenario $33.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NACCO Industries Inc (NC)?
NACCO Industries Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $274M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does NACCO Industries Inc pay a dividend?
NACCO Industries Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.68% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into NACCO Industries Inc (NC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NACCO Industries Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +49.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.6 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NC use?
Our models discount NACCO Industries Inc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.44, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NACCO Industries Inc that is +49.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NACCO Industries Inc (NC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NACCO Industries Inc grew +16.6 % a year. The price currently implies +49.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NACCO Industries Inc (NC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NACCO Industries Inc (+49.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NACCO Industries Inc (NC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.81 %: that much free cash flow NACCO Industries Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NACCO Industries Inc (NC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NACCO Industries Inc it is $28.56 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $37.72. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NACCO Industries Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NC trades above its calculated fair value: price $37.72, fair value $28.56, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($37.72); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($28.56). For NACCO Industries Inc the two are $9.16 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NACCO Industries Inc worth?
The market values NACCO Industries Inc at about $376M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $37.72; our models calculate a fair value of $28.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NC?
Our models span a range for NACCO Industries Inc: cautious scenario $20.86, base $28.56, optimistic $33.16 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $37.72). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NC?
NACCO Industries Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $28.56 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 0.9, P/S 1.4.
What is the PEG ratio of NC?
The PEG ratio of NACCO Industries Inc is 0.30 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of NACCO Industries Inc (NC)?
Balance-sheet figures for NACCO Industries Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 5.1%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NC from its 52-week high?
NACCO Industries Inc trades at $37.72, about 36% below its 52-week high of $58.53 and 4% above the low of $36.34 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $28.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NACCO Industries Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Yankuang Energy Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NACCO Industries Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $37.72, calculated fair value $28.56 (−24%), Quality Score 51/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NC calculated?
We run NACCO Industries Inc through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $28.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. NACCO Industries Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NACCO Industries Inc (NC)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $37.72. Our model-based fair value is $28.56, about −24% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NACCO Industries Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($33.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of NACCO Industries Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of NACCO Industries Inc (NC)?
The market capitalisation of NACCO Industries Inc is $376M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NACCO Industries Inc (NC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NACCO Industries Inc is 1.11 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NACCO Industries Inc (NC)?
Earnings per share at NACCO Industries Inc are $2.86 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NACCO Industries Inc (NC)?
The dividend yield of NACCO Industries Inc is 2.7% (payout 35.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NACCO Industries Inc (NC)?
The net margin of NACCO Industries Inc is 6.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NACCO Industries Inc (NC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NACCO Industries Inc is 5.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NACCO Industries Inc (NC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NACCO Industries Inc is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NACCO Industries Inc (NC)?
The operating margin of NACCO Industries Inc is −9.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NACCO Industries Inc (NC)?
Revenue at NACCO Industries Inc is growing −4.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NACCO Industries Inc (NC)?
Earnings per share at NACCO Industries Inc are growing +77.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does NACCO Industries Inc (NC) carry?
The net debt of NACCO Industries Inc is $59.1M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 25.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026