Northann Corp (NCL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $9.3M
Northann Corp
NCL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 29, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 12 days ago
Below-average quality, and screening another 87% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.0200). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($0.0100 to $0.0200) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
34‑month range $0.1390 – $1,267 · fair‑value band $0.0100 – $0.0200 · the $0.1590 price screens above the $0.0200 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 29, 2026.
Analysis
Northann Corp (NCL) currently trades at $0.1590, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0200, implying the stock looks roughly 87.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Northann Corp generated revenue of $15.1M at a net margin of -78.9%. Revenue grew 44.3% year over year. Net debt stands at $4.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.0100 (bear case) to $0.0200 (bull case); at $0.1590, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -87%, NCL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Northann Corp. operates dotfloor.com, the online store that offers vinyl flooring products in North America and Europe. It offers its products under the Benchwick, Northann, SuperOak, and Dotfloor brand names. It serves retail customers. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Fort Lawn, South Carolina.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Northann Corp reported revenue of $13.6M in FY2025 versus $34.5M in FY2021, a compound −20.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$11.7M in FY2025.
NCL screens 87% overvalued. Compare with Midea Group →
Peer Group
Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 311 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midea Group 000333 | ¥82.71 | ¥107.22 | +30% |
| Gree Electric Appliances, Inc 000651 | ¥38.25 | ¥88.02 | +130% |
| Haier Smart Home Co 600690 | ¥21.46 | ¥36.04 | +68% |
| King Slide Works Co 2059 | 8,655 TWD | 1,917 TWD | -78% |
| Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co 603268 | ¥155.59 | ¥38.95 | -75% |
| SharkNinja, Inc SN | $154.53 | $89.07 | -42% |
| Hisense Home Appliances Group 000921 | ¥26.33 | ¥48.03 | +82% |
| Zhejiang Supor Co 002032 | ¥43.85 | ¥44.84 | +2% |
| COWAY Co 021240 | 96,700 KRW | 112,530 KRW | +16% |
| Ecovacs Robotics Co 603486 | ¥50.13 | ¥54.11 | +8% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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