Nedbank Group (NED) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · ZA · Market cap 122B ZAC
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from R263.47 to R288.79 (+9.6%) since Jul 15, 2026. Share price +10.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R143.44 – R314.87 · fair‑value band R216.59 – R360.98 · the R295.72 price screens above the R288.79 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Nedbank Group (NED) currently trades at R295.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R288.79, implying the stock looks roughly 2.3% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Nedbank Group generated revenue of 59.9B ZAR at a net margin of 13.0%. Revenue declined 19.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.4%. Net debt stands at 21.0T ZAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R216.59 (bear case) to R360.98 (bull case); at R295.72, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at -2%, NED screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (R2,552) versus Multiples (R263.47). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Nedbank Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides various wholesale and retail banking services in South Africa, rest of Africa, Europe, Asia, the United States, and internationally.
Full company description
Nedbank Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides various wholesale and retail banking services in South Africa, rest of Africa, Europe, Asia, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Nedbank Corporate and Investment Banking; Nedbank Business and Commercial Banking; Nedbank Personal and Private Banking; Nedbank Africa Regions; and Centre segments. It offers lending products, advisory services, leverage financing, trading, brokering, structuring, hedging, and client coverage; corporate finance advisory, innovative financial products and services, customised transactional banking, asset management, and commercial property finance; transactional accounts, home loans, vehicle and asset finance, card services, personal loans, insurance and investments; Wealth services include trust and estate planning, stockbroking, and financial planning, as well as tailored banking and services; and franchising and manufacturing industries and public sector. The company also provides life and non-life insurance; asset management; trust and estate planning, stockbroking, and financial planning wealth management services. In addition, it offers capital management, funding, and liquidity risk management. The company was formerly known as Nedcor Limited and changed its name to Nedbank Group Limited in 2005. Nedbank Group Limited was founded in 1831 and is headquartered in Sandton, South Africa.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nedbank Group reported revenue of R161B in FY2025 versus R95.1B in FY2021, a compound +14.1%/yr. Reported net income was R9.3B in FY2025, compounding −6.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +1.4 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1088 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,350 IDR | 4,637 IDR | -27% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 168,100 KRW | 220,258 KRW | +31% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 3,110 IDR | 3,792 IDR | +22% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,130 IDR | 6,067 IDR | +47% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 8,400 ARS | +64% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 103,800 KRW | 146,032 KRW | +41% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 127,900 KRW | 210,506 KRW | +65% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,500 VND | 45,959 VND | -23% |
| Woori Financial Group 316140 | 33,000 KRW | 60,758 KRW | +84% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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