Nedbank Group Ltd (NED) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Nedbank Group Ltd ZAR 303, price ZAR 289, upside +4.6%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R152.10 – R314.87 · fair‑value band R212.52 – R401.03 · the R289.47 price screens below the R302.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Nedbank Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides various wholesale and retail banking services in South Africa, rest of Africa, Europe, Asia, the United States, and internationally.
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Nedbank Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides various wholesale and retail banking services in South Africa, rest of Africa, Europe, Asia, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Nedbank Corporate and Investment Banking; Nedbank Business and Commercial Banking; Nedbank Personal and Private Banking; Nedbank Africa Regions; and Centre segments. It offers lending products, advisory services, leverage financing, trading, brokering, structuring, hedging, and client coverage; corporate finance advisory, innovative financial products and services, customised transactional banking, asset management, and commercial property finance; transactional accounts, home loans, vehicle and asset finance, card services, personal loans, insurance and investments; Wealth services include trust and estate planning, stockbroking, and financial planning, as well as tailored banking and services; and franchising and manufacturing industries and public sector. The company also provides life and non-life insurance; asset management; trust and estate planning, stockbroking, and financial planning wealth management services. In addition, it offers capital management, funding, and liquidity risk management. The company was formerly known as Nedcor Limited and changed its name to Nedbank Group Limited in 2005. Nedbank Group Limited was founded in 1831 and is headquartered in Sandton, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Nedbank Group Ltd (NED) currently trades at R289.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R302.66, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.4%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of R2,552 per share, and 5 of the 6 models we run sit above the R289.47 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at R263.47, and 1 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R212.52 (bear) to R401.03 (bull), the price of R289.47 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Nedbank Group Ltd reported revenue of 161B ZAR in FY2025 versus 95.1B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +14.1%/yr. Reported net income was 9.3B ZAR in FY2025, compounding −6.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 135B ZAC · P/E ratio 15.3 · P/S ratio 0.88 · EPS (TTM) R18.98 · Dividend yield 7.4% · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity 8.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 5%, NED screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R212.52Fair Value R302.66Bull R401.03
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+146.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+42.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.8% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+5.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4.7% vs −0.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−9.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −12.0% a year for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1058 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+4.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8.0% · Below median
Return on assets0.7% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)14.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)34.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)7.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nedbank Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NED
Frequently asked questions
Is Nedbank Group Ltd (NED) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R302.66 versus a price of R289.47, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NED?
Our model-based fair value for Nedbank Group Ltd is R302.66 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R289.47.
What is the quality score of NED?
Nedbank Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R302.66 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario R212.52, optimistic scenario R401.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nedbank Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R302.66, about +5% upside versus a price of R289.47 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario R212.52, optimistic scenario R401.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
Nedbank Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 61.5B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Nedbank Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Nedbank Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.45% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nedbank Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.4 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NED use?
Our models discount Nedbank Group Ltd at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.38, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nedbank Group Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nedbank Group Ltd (NED) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nedbank Group Ltd grew +10.4 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nedbank Group Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.83 %: that much free cash flow Nedbank Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nedbank Group Ltd it is R302.66 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of R289.47. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nedbank Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, NED trades below its calculated fair value: price R289.47, fair value R302.66, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NED?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R289.47); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R302.66). For Nedbank Group Ltd the two are R13.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nedbank Group Ltd worth?
The market values Nedbank Group Ltd at about 135B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is R289.47; our models calculate a fair value of R302.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NED?
Our models span a range for Nedbank Group Ltd: cautious scenario R212.52, base R302.66, optimistic R401.03 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price R289.47). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NED?
Nedbank Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.3 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R302.66 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 49.3, P/B 0.1, P/S 2.2.
What is the PEG ratio of NED?
The PEG ratio of Nedbank Group Ltd is 49.26 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nedbank Group Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 8.0%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NED from its 52-week high?
Nedbank Group Ltd trades at R289.47, about 8% below its 52-week high of R314.87 and 37% above the low of R211.26 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R302.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nedbank Group Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nedbank Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price R289.47, calculated fair value R302.66 (+5%), Quality Score 47/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NED calculated?
We run Nedbank Group Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R302.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Nedbank Group Ltd currently trades 5 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was R289.47. Our model-based fair value is R302.66, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nedbank Group Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (R212.52 to R401.03) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED) come from?
Earnings per share at Nedbank Group Ltd grew +4.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.5 %, EBIT margin +2.2 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Nedbank Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
The market capitalisation of Nedbank Group Ltd is 135B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nedbank Group Ltd is 0.88 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
Earnings per share at Nedbank Group Ltd are R18.98 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
The dividend yield of Nedbank Group Ltd is 7.4% (payout 114%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
The net margin of Nedbank Group Ltd is 5.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nedbank Group Ltd is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nedbank Group Ltd is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
The operating margin of Nedbank Group Ltd is 34.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
Revenue at Nedbank Group Ltd is growing +4.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +42.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
Earnings per share at Nedbank Group Ltd are growing +16.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nedbank Group Ltd (NED) carry?
The net debt of Nedbank Group Ltd is 21.0T ZAC (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 27, 2026