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Nedbank Group Ltd (NED) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nedbank Group Ltd stock ZAR 595, price ZAR 297, upside +100.0%, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services ZA · ISIN ZAE000004875

NG Nedbank Group Ltd logo Some data Nov 13, 2026

Nedbank Group Ltd

NED · JSE

Cheap (50% below fair value) and rising price, but weak company: meets 2 of 3 rules.

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Fair value R594.68 · Strongly undervalued 
Rising price (uptrend) 
Solidly profitable · 14.3% net margin (TTM) 
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 66% above the price (R492.13). 
Quality 45/100 
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +10.4 %/yr in ZAR) 
7.3% dividend yield · Payout strained
Mixed vs. peers (6/14) 
Moderate moat 54/100 · thin data
Some data 
Changed on Oct 24: ZAR 302.66 → ZAR 578.90 

Main risks:

🚩Digital banks eroding market share🚩AI agents challenging banking assumptions
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R314.87 R152.10 Fair Value R594.68 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R152.10 – R314.87 · fair‑value band R492.13 – R820.22 · the R297.34 price screens below the R594.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Nedbank Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides various wholesale and retail banking services in South Africa, rest of Africa, Europe, Asia, the United States, and internationally.

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The company operates through Nedbank Corporate and Investment Banking; Nedbank Business and Commercial Banking; Nedbank Personal and Private Banking; Nedbank Africa Regions; and Centre segments.

It offers lending products, advisory services, leverage financing, trading, brokering, structuring, hedging, and client coverage; corporate finance advisory, innovative financial products and services, customised transactional banking, asset management, and commercial property finance; transactional accounts, home loans, vehicle and asset finance, card services, personal loans, insurance and investments; Wealth services include trust and estate planning, stockbroking, and financial planning, as well as tailored banking and services; and franchising and manufacturing industries and public sector.

The company also provides life and non-life insurance; asset management; trust and estate planning, stockbroking, and financial planning wealth management services. In addition, it offers capital management, funding, and liquidity risk management.

The company was formerly known as Nedcor Limited and changed its name to Nedbank Group Limited in 2005. Nedbank Group Limited was founded in 1831 and is headquartered in Sandton, South Africa.

Stock analysis

Nedbank Group Ltd (NED) currently trades at R297.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R594.68, implying the stock looks roughly 50% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R2,479 per share, and 5 of the 6 models we run sit above the R297.34 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R391.21, and 1 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: R492.13 (bear) to R820.22 (bull), the price of R297.34 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Nedbank Group Ltd reported revenue of 161B ZAR in FY2025 versus 95.1B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +14.1%/yr. Reported net income was 9.3B ZAR in FY2025, compounding −6.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 139B ZAR Mid · P/E ratio 15.7 · P/S ratio 2.25 · EPS (TTM) R18.99 · Dividend yield 7.3% · Net margin 14.3% · Return on equity 8.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 100%, NED screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R492.13 Fair Value R594.68 Bull R820.22
Price R297.34 · Upside +100.0%
Capped: our models arrive at a very high value here. We deliberately show a more cautious Fair Value.
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income R1,998 R2,152 R2,365 76
Gordon GGM R234.95 R404.18 R535.54 68
DDM Multi-Stage R234.95 R378.23 R433.78 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R234.95 R404.18 R535.54 68
DDM Multi-Stage R234.95 R378.23 R433.78 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple R197.60 R263.47 R329.34 63
P/B Multiple R3,521 R4,694 R5,868 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R1,677 R2,247 R3,353 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income R1,998 R2,152 R2,365 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 14
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 34
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 78
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 12
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 33
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 92
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 53
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 65
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 98
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+146.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+42.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.8% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+5.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4.7% vs −0.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 998 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 45 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +100.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 8.0% · Below median
Return on assets 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 14.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 34.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 4.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 7.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.03× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 15.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B 0.08× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 2.25× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 6.1× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 49.26× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 9
FUTURE (revenue growth)24 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)32 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 52

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.62 ¥7.59 +35% vs NED
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.63 ¥52.73 +24% vs NED
BNP Paribas SA BNP €95.68 €107.43 +12% vs NED
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.25 €4.91 −21% vs NED
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €84.24 €58.08 −31% vs NED
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 28.67 SGD 18.20 SGD −37% vs NED
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $10.12 $5.87 −42% vs NED
DBS Group D05 71.00 SGD 40.39 SGD −43% vs NED
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹812.30 ₹406.39 −50% vs NED
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,590 ₹615.63 −61% vs NED

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nedbank Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NED

Frequently asked questions

Is Nedbank Group Ltd (NED) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R594.68 versus a price of R297.34, about +100% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NED?
Our model-based fair value for Nedbank Group Ltd is R594.68 (as of Nov 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R297.34.
What is the quality score of NED?
Nedbank Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R594.68 (as of Nov 13, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario R492.13, optimistic scenario R820.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nedbank Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R594.68, about +100% upside versus a price of R297.34 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R492.13, optimistic scenario R820.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
Nedbank Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 61.5B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Nov 13, 2026).
Does Nedbank Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Nedbank Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 7.25% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 13, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Nedbank Group Ltd pays a dividend of R21.56 per share a year, a dividend yield of 7.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 26, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1996. The payout ratio is 114% of earnings. Our assessment: Payout strained. The dividend exceeds reported earnings (though reported profit is often depressed by one-off charges), and free cash flow only just covers it (or coverage is unknown). Not an emergency, but little room for error.
What is the intrinsic value of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nedbank Group Ltd it is R594.68 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026), against a price of R297.34. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Nedbank Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 13, 2026, NED trades below its calculated fair value: price R297.34, fair value R594.68, a gap of about +100% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NED?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R297.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R594.68). For Nedbank Group Ltd the two are R297.34 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nedbank Group Ltd worth?
The market values Nedbank Group Ltd at about 139B ZAR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 13, 2026). Per share that is R297.34; our models calculate a fair value of R594.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NED?
Our models span a range for Nedbank Group Ltd: cautious scenario R492.13, base R594.68, optimistic R820.22 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026, price R297.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NED?
Nedbank Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.7 (as of Nov 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R594.68 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 9.2. Other multiples: PEG 49.3, P/B 0.1, P/S 2.3.
What is the PEG ratio of NED?
The PEG ratio of Nedbank Group Ltd is 49.26 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nedbank Group Ltd (as of Nov 13, 2026): return on equity 8.0%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NED from its 52-week high?
Nedbank Group Ltd trades at R297.34, about 6% below its 52-week high of R314.87 and 18% above the low of R252.80 (as of Nov 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R594.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nedbank Group Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nedbank Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 13, 2026: price R297.34, calculated fair value R594.68 (+100%), Quality Score 45/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NED calculated?
We run Nedbank Group Ltd through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of R594.68 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Nedbank Group Ltd currently trades 50% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was R297.34. Our model-based fair value is R594.68, about +100% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nedbank Group Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (45/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (R492.13). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED) come from?
Earnings per share at Nedbank Group Ltd grew +4.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.5 %, EBIT margin +2.2 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Nedbank Group Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
The market capitalisation of Nedbank Group Ltd is 139B ZAR. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nedbank Group Ltd is 2.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
Earnings per share at Nedbank Group Ltd are R18.99 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
The dividend yield of Nedbank Group Ltd is 7.3% (payout 114%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
The net margin of Nedbank Group Ltd is 14.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nedbank Group Ltd is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nedbank Group Ltd is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
The operating margin of Nedbank Group Ltd is 34.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
Revenue at Nedbank Group Ltd is growing +4.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +42.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nedbank Group Ltd (NED)?
Earnings per share at Nedbank Group Ltd are growing +16.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Nedbank Group Ltd (NED) generate?
The free cash flow of Nedbank Group Ltd is 22.7B ZAR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Nedbank Group Ltd (NED) carry?
The net debt of Nedbank Group Ltd is 21.0T ZAR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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