Nephros Inc (NEPH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Nephros Inc $3.48, price $4.14, upside -15.9%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.9100 – $10.68 · fair‑value band $2.11 – $4.52 · the $4.14 price screens above the $3.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Nephros, Inc., a commercial-stage company, develops and sells water filtration solutions for medical and commercial applications in the United States.
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Nephros, Inc., a commercial-stage company, develops and sells water filtration solutions for medical and commercial applications in the United States. It offers ultrafiltration products that are used in dialysis centers for the removal of biological contaminants from water and bicarbonate concentrate; and in hospitals for the prevention of infection from waterborne pathogens, such as legionella and pseudomonas, as well as in foodservice and hospitality, and other healthcare facilities. The company also manufactures and sells water filters that enhance the taste and odor of water; reduce biofilm and scale build-up; and remove cysts, particulates, and lead from water systems. It markets its products to food service and hospitality sectors including quick-service restaurants, convenience stores, and restaurants. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in South Orange, New Jersey.
Stock analysis
Nephros Inc (NEPH) currently trades at $4.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.48, implying the stock looks roughly 19.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $3.82 per share, and 5 of the 23 models we run sit above the $4.14 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.6300, and 18 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $2.11 (bear) to $4.52 (bull), the price of $4.14 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Nephros Inc reported revenue of $18.8M in FY2025 versus $10.2M in FY2021, a compound +16.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $45.4M · P/E ratio 59.1 · P/S ratio 3.76 · EPS (TTM) $0.0700 · Net margin 6.4% · Return on equity 7.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −12.6% · Operating margin 1.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −16%, NEPH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.11Fair Value $3.48Bull $4.52
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0514 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+32.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +25.5% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−49.9% (2020) → 6.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Instruments & Supplies · 204 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Above median
Fair Value upside−16% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Instruments & Supplies median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nephros Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NEPH
Frequently asked questions
Is Nephros Inc (NEPH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.48 versus a price of $4.14, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NEPH?
Our model-based fair value for Nephros Inc is $3.48 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.14.
What is the quality score of NEPH?
Nephros Inc has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nephros Inc (NEPH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.48 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.11, optimistic scenario $4.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nephros Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.48, about −16% upside versus a price of $4.14 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.11, optimistic scenario $4.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nephros Inc (NEPH)?
Nephros Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $19.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nephros Inc (NEPH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nephros Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +16.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NEPH use?
Our models discount Nephros Inc at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 1.50, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nephros Inc that is +16.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nephros Inc (NEPH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nephros Inc grew +17.0 % a year. The price currently implies +16.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nephros Inc (NEPH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nephros Inc (+16.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nephros Inc (NEPH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.62 %: that much free cash flow Nephros Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nephros Inc (NEPH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nephros Inc it is $3.48 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $4.14. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nephros Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NEPH trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.14, fair value $3.48, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NEPH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.48). For Nephros Inc the two are $0.6600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nephros Inc worth?
The market values Nephros Inc at about $45.4M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $4.14; our models calculate a fair value of $3.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NEPH?
Our models span a range for Nephros Inc: cautious scenario $2.11, base $3.48, optimistic $4.52 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $4.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NEPH?
Nephros Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 59.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.48 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.5, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 49.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nephros Inc (NEPH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nephros Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 7.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NEPH from its 52-week high?
Nephros Inc trades at $4.14, about 28% below its 52-week high of $5.79 and 49% above the low of $2.78 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nephros Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Intuitive Surgical, Inc, EssilorLuxottica Société anonyme, Medline Inc, Becton, Dickinson and Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nephros Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $4.14, calculated fair value $3.48 (−16%), Quality Score 66/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NEPH calculated?
We run Nephros Inc through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Nephros Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nephros Inc (NEPH)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $4.14. Our model-based fair value is $3.48, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nephros Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($2.11 to $4.52) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Nephros Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Nephros Inc (NEPH)?
The market capitalisation of Nephros Inc is $45.4M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nephros Inc (NEPH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nephros Inc is 3.76 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nephros Inc (NEPH)?
Earnings per share at Nephros Inc are $0.0700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 59.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Nephros Inc (NEPH)?
The net margin of Nephros Inc is 6.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nephros Inc (NEPH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nephros Inc is 7.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nephros Inc (NEPH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nephros Inc is −12.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nephros Inc (NEPH)?
The operating margin of Nephros Inc is 1.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nephros Inc (NEPH)?
Revenue at Nephros Inc is growing +6.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +23.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nephros Inc (NEPH)?
Earnings per share at Nephros Inc are growing −80.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Nephros Inc (NEPH) hold?
Nephros Inc holds more cash than debt, $4.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026