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Northern Star Resources Limited (NESRF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Northern Star Resources Limited $17.09, price $17.05, upside +0.3%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Northern Star Resources Limited
NESRF · USNeutralQuality growthThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value $17.09 · Fairly valued (+0.3%)
!Quality 55/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +26.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 22.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓3.2% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 64/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.00 – $22.08 · fair‑value band $9.27 – $24.41 · the $17.05 price screens below the $17.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Northern Star Resources Limited engages in the exploration, development, mining, and processing of gold deposits. The company also sells refined gold. It operates in Western Australia, the Northern Territory, and Alaska. Northern Star Resources Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Subiaco, Australia.
Stock analysis
Northern Star Resources Limited (NESRF) currently trades at $17.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.09, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 0.3%).
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $25.78 per share, and 8 of the 25 models we run sit above the $17.05 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $4.39, and 17 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $9.27 (bear) to $24.41 (bull), the price of $17.05 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Northern Star Resources Limited reported revenue of A$6.4B in FY2025 versus A$2.8B in FY2021, a compound +23.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$1.3B in FY2025, compounding +6.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $20.5B · P/E ratio 20.5 · P/S ratio 4.29 · EPS (TTM) $0.8300 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 20.9% · Return on equity 12.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 0%, NESRF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $9.27
Fair Value $17.09
Bull $24.41
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2800 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$6.23
$6.81
$8.19
76
FCF DCF
$6.28
$9.75
$20.81
75
Growth DCF
$5.92
$11.53
$20.72
75
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$6.28
$9.75
$20.81
75
5Y Revenue Exit
$4.53
$7.55
$13.84
70
5Y EBITDA Exit
$9.90
$18.40
$35.10
71
5Y P/E Exit
$8.17
$18.65
$33.05
67
10Y Revenue Exit
$4.97
$10.32
$13.61
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$9.03
$21.87
$44.90
63
10Y P/E Exit
$7.77
$18.14
$35.45
60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$4.44
$30.97
$43.46
63
Lynch FV
$14.42
$20.60
$26.78
61
PEG = 1.0
$14.42
$20.60
$26.78
57
EPV
$6.60
$7.67
$8.60
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$2.50
$5.20
$8.25
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$2.50
$4.39
$5.46
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$8.33
$11.10
$13.88
63
P/S Multiple
$3.52
$4.69
$5.86
58
P/B Multiple
$8.33
$11.10
$13.88
55
EV/EBIT
$10.39
$13.78
$17.17
66
EV/EBITDA
$10.84
$14.38
$17.93
67
EV/Revenue
$3.50
$4.91
$6.32
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$3.64
$4.87
$7.27
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$5.92
$11.53
$20.72
75
Rev-Margin DCF
$4.88
$8.60
$16.20
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$6.23
$6.81
$8.19
76
ROIC Compounder
$6.60
$8.31
$10.98
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$18.05
$25.78
$33.51
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
55/100
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Profitability
44
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
77
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
63
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
84
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
19
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
52
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
45
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
59
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+30.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +22.5% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.3%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+13.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.24.6% vs 21.8%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 31%
2025 sits 122% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+23.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +22.1% a year for the price and +19.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+26.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+26.9%
Projected 2028 (sales)+23.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)+20.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+17.5%
Watch NESRF, get fair value alerts →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
- Northern Star rejects Gold Fields' $27B takeover proposal
- Gold Fields approaches Northern Star over potential takeover, Bloomberg reports
- Northern Star Resources Ltd (NESRF) (FY 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record EBITDA and ...
- Elliott Management Statement on Northern Star Resources Ltd
Compare Northern Star Resources Limited with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 200 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEM | $115.34 | $126.87 | +10% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥30.01 | ¥44.45 | +48% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | $185.83 | $219.71 | +18% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | $135.39 | $87.78 | −35% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | $245.81 | $270.39 | +10% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $99.03 | $88.60 | −11% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $24.06 | $51.30 | +113% |
| Royal Gold, Inc RGLD | $238.93 | $262.82 | +10% |
| Shandong Gold Mining Co 600547 | ¥29.07 | ¥23.61 | −19% |
| Pan American Silver Corp PAAS | $46.14 | $59.13 | +28% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Northern Star Resources Limited (NESRF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.09 versus a price of $17.05, about +0% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NESRF?
Our model-based fair value for Northern Star Resources Limited is $17.09 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $17.05.
What is the quality score of NESRF?
Northern Star Resources Limited has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Northern Star Resources Limited (NESRF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.09 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.27, optimistic scenario $24.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Northern Star Resources Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.09, about +0% upside versus a price of $17.05 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $9.27, optimistic scenario $24.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Northern Star Resources Limited (NESRF)?
Northern Star Resources Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$7.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Northern Star Resources Limited pay a dividend?
Northern Star Resources Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.23% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Northern Star Resources Limited (NESRF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Northern Star Resources Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +25.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +26.6 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NESRF use?
Our models discount Northern Star Resources Limited at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.39, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Northern Star Resources Limited that is +25.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Northern Star Resources Limited (NESRF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Northern Star Resources Limited grew +26.6 % a year. The price currently implies +25.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Northern Star Resources Limited (NESRF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Northern Star Resources Limited (+25.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Northern Star Resources Limited (NESRF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.23 %: that much free cash flow Northern Star Resources Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Northern Star Resources Limited (NESRF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Northern Star Resources Limited it is $17.09 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $17.05. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Northern Star Resources Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, NESRF trades below its calculated fair value: price $17.05, fair value $17.09, a gap of about +0% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NESRF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($17.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.09). For Northern Star Resources Limited the two are $0.0440 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Northern Star Resources Limited worth?
The market values Northern Star Resources Limited at about $20.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $17.05; our models calculate a fair value of $17.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NESRF?
Our models span a range for Northern Star Resources Limited: cautious scenario $9.27, base $17.09, optimistic $24.41 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $17.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NESRF?
Northern Star Resources Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.5 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $17.09 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 1.4, P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 5.6.
What is the PEG ratio of NESRF?
The PEG ratio of Northern Star Resources Limited is 0.24 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Northern Star Resources Limited (NESRF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Northern Star Resources Limited (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 12.8%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NESRF from its 52-week high?
Northern Star Resources Limited trades at $17.05, about 23% below its 52-week high of $22.08 and 37% above the low of $12.47 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $17.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Northern Star Resources Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Northern Star Resources Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $17.05, calculated fair value $17.09 (+0%), Quality Score 55/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NESRF calculated?
We run Northern Star Resources Limited through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $17.09, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Northern Star Resources Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Northern Star Resources Limited (NESRF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $17.05. Our model-based fair value is $17.09, about +0% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Northern Star Resources Limited right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($9.27 to $24.41). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Where does the earnings growth of Northern Star Resources Limited (NESRF) come from?
Earnings per share at Northern Star Resources Limited grew +18.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +16.0 %, EBIT margin +0.6 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Northern Star Resources Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Northern Star Resources Limited (NESRF)?
The market capitalisation of Northern Star Resources Limited is $20.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Northern Star Resources Limited (NESRF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Northern Star Resources Limited is 4.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Northern Star Resources Limited (NESRF)?
Earnings per share at Northern Star Resources Limited are $0.8300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Northern Star Resources Limited (NESRF)?
The dividend yield of Northern Star Resources Limited is 3.2% (payout 66.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Northern Star Resources Limited (NESRF)?
The net margin of Northern Star Resources Limited is 20.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Northern Star Resources Limited (NESRF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Northern Star Resources Limited is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Northern Star Resources Limited (NESRF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Northern Star Resources Limited is 6.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Northern Star Resources Limited (NESRF)?
The operating margin of Northern Star Resources Limited is 30.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Northern Star Resources Limited (NESRF)?
Revenue at Northern Star Resources Limited is growing +19.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Northern Star Resources Limited (NESRF)?
Earnings per share at Northern Star Resources Limited are growing +13.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Northern Star Resources Limited (NESRF) carry?
The net debt of Northern Star Resources Limited is A$125M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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