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NextSource Materials Inc (NEXT) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of NextSource Materials Inc C$0.18, price C$0.26, upside -31.4%, quality 10 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · CA · ISIN CA65343M2094

NM Thin data Sep 23, 2026

NextSource Materials Inc

NEXT · TO

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value C$0.1785 · Overvalued (−31%)
!Quality 10/100
!Weak Growth
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/8)
!Narrow moat 6/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

C$4.53 C$0.1600 Fair Value C$0.1785 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range C$0.1600 – C$4.53 · fair‑value band C$0.1360 – C$0.2720 · the C$0.2600 price screens above the C$0.1785 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

NextSource Materials Inc. explores for, develops, and evaluates mineral properties in Madagascar and Canada. It operates through Mine Development and Battery Anode Facilities (BAF) Development segments. The company explores for graphite and vanadium deposits.

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NextSource Materials Inc. explores for, develops, and evaluates mineral properties in Madagascar and Canada. It operates through Mine Development and Battery Anode Facilities (BAF) Development segments. The company explores for graphite and vanadium deposits. It holds interests in the Molo graphite mine located in the Province of Toliara in Southern Madagascar; the Green Giant Vanadium Project located in Madagascar; and the Sagar Project located in Quebec, Canada. The company also operates battery anode facilities in Mauritius. In addition, it provides mining and value-added processing of graphite concentrate and other minerals under the SuperFlake brand. The company was formerly known as Energizer Resources Inc. and changed its name to NextSource Materials Inc. in April 2017. NextSource Materials Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Stock analysis

NextSource Materials Inc (NEXT) currently trades at C$0.2600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.1785, implying the stock looks roughly 45.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 80/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: C$0.1360 (bear) to C$0.2720 (bull), the price of C$0.2600 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 10/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

NextSource Materials Inc reported revenue of $715K in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$32.4M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap C$62.6M (≈ $44.4M) · P/S ratio 63.0 · EPS (TTM) C$−0.2800 · Return on equity −79.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −12.6% · Operating margin −4,621% · Revenue (TTM) $1.1M · Revenue growth (YoY) −32.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −31%, NEXT screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear C$0.1360 Fair Value C$0.1785 Bull C$0.2720
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) C$0.1100 C$0.1500 C$0.2300 53
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) C$0.1100 C$0.1500 C$0.2300 53

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 10/100

Of which business quality 16 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 27
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 9
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 49
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 15
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

NEXT screens 46% overvalued. Compare with Vale S.A →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 456 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 16 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −31% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −17% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −32% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.16× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.79× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 38.59× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)92 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 29

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vale S.A VALE $14.19 $9.87 −30%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 62.70 SAR 68.97 SAR +10%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥17.66 ¥20.07 +14%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥60.26 ¥31.23 −48%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹595.45 ₹655.00 +10%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥36.77 ¥40.45 +10%
Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,116,000 KRW 646,063 KRW −42%
Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 ¥49.34 ¥24.75 −50%
PLS Group PLS A$4.18 A$6.65 +59%
Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co 601958 ¥20.99 ¥12.24 −42%

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NextSource Materials Inc · Fair Value
C$0.1785 −46%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NextSource Materials Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NEXT

Frequently asked questions

Is NextSource Materials Inc (NEXT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$0.1785 versus a price of C$0.2600, about −31% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NEXT?
Our model-based fair value for NextSource Materials Inc is C$0.1785 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$0.2600.
What is the quality score of NEXT?
NextSource Materials Inc has a Quality Score of 10/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NextSource Materials Inc (NEXT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$0.1785 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$0.1360, optimistic scenario C$0.2720. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NextSource Materials Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$0.1785, about −31% upside versus a price of C$0.2600 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$0.1360, optimistic scenario C$0.2720. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NextSource Materials Inc (NEXT)?
NextSource Materials Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of NextSource Materials Inc (NEXT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NextSource Materials Inc it is C$0.1785 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of C$0.2600. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NextSource Materials Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NEXT trades above its calculated fair value: price C$0.2600, fair value C$0.1785, a gap of about −31% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NEXT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$0.2600); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$0.1785). For NextSource Materials Inc the two are C$0.0815 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NextSource Materials Inc worth?
The market values NextSource Materials Inc at about C$62.6M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is C$0.2600; our models calculate a fair value of C$0.1785 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NEXT?
Our models span a range for NextSource Materials Inc: cautious scenario C$0.1360, base C$0.1785, optimistic C$0.2720 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price C$0.2600). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of NextSource Materials Inc (NEXT)?
Balance-sheet figures for NextSource Materials Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −79.5%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 10/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NEXT from its 52-week high?
NextSource Materials Inc trades at C$0.2600, about 58% below its 52-week high of C$0.6200 and 7% above the low of C$0.2425 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$0.1785 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NextSource Materials Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NextSource Materials Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price C$0.2600, calculated fair value C$0.1785 (−31%), Quality Score 10/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NEXT calculated?
We run NextSource Materials Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$0.1785, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. NextSource Materials Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NextSource Materials Inc (NEXT)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was C$0.2600. Our model-based fair value is C$0.1785, about −31% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NextSource Materials Inc right now?
Weak quality (10/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (C$0.1360 to C$0.2720) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of NextSource Materials Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of NextSource Materials Inc (NEXT)?
The market capitalisation of NextSource Materials Inc is C$62.6M (≈ $44.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NextSource Materials Inc (NEXT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NextSource Materials Inc is 63.0 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NextSource Materials Inc (NEXT)?
Earnings per share at NextSource Materials Inc are C$−0.2800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of NextSource Materials Inc (NEXT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NextSource Materials Inc is −79.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NextSource Materials Inc (NEXT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NextSource Materials Inc is −12.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NextSource Materials Inc (NEXT)?
The operating margin of NextSource Materials Inc is −4,621% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NextSource Materials Inc (NEXT)?
Revenue at NextSource Materials Inc is growing −32.1% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does NextSource Materials Inc (NEXT) generate?
The free cash flow of NextSource Materials Inc is −$30.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does NextSource Materials Inc (NEXT) carry?
The net debt of NextSource Materials Inc is $21.0M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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