NextSource Materials Inc (NEXT) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CA · Market cap C$72.4M
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price +3.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 58% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$0.1955). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (10/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (C$0.0935 to C$0.1955) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.1600 – C$4.53 · fair‑value band C$0.0935 – C$0.1955 · the C$0.3000 price screens above the C$0.1275 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
NextSource Materials Inc (NEXT) currently trades at C$0.3000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.1275, implying the stock looks roughly 57.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 10/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at C$1.1M. Revenue declined 32.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -79.5%. Net debt stands at C$21.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$0.0935 (bear case) to C$0.1955 (bull case); at C$0.3000, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -58%, NEXT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 16 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
NextSource Materials Inc. explores for, develops, and evaluates mineral properties in Madagascar and Canada. It operates through Mine Development and Battery Anode Facilities (BAF) Development segments. The company explores for graphite and vanadium deposits.
Full company description
NextSource Materials Inc. explores for, develops, and evaluates mineral properties in Madagascar and Canada. It operates through Mine Development and Battery Anode Facilities (BAF) Development segments. The company explores for graphite and vanadium deposits. It holds interests in the Molo graphite mine located in the Province of Toliara in Southern Madagascar; the Green Giant Vanadium Project located in Madagascar; and the Sagar Project located in Quebec, Canada. The company also operates battery anode facilities in Mauritius. In addition, it provides mining and value-added processing of graphite concentrate and other minerals under the SuperFlake brand. The company was formerly known as Energizer Resources Inc. and changed its name to NextSource Materials Inc. in April 2017. NextSource Materials Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
NextSource Materials Inc reported revenue of C$715K in FY2025 versus C$0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −C$32.4M in FY2025.
NEXT screens 58% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 476 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 942.42 MXN | -34% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$164.89 | A$81.76 | -50% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 199.23 MXN | 187.72 MXN | -6% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $14.19 | $9.14 | -36% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.20 | ¥16.15 | -11% |
| Fortescue Ltd FMG | A$18.47 | A$18.62 | +1% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥74.71 | ¥9.55 | -87% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹521.95 | ₹576.80 | +11% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥39.56 | ¥10.59 | -73% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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