National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $3.3B
National HealthCare Corporation
NHC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from $168.98 to $157.66 (−6.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +1.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 27% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 72/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($196.69). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $48.06 – $231.00 · fair‑value band $113.81 – $196.69 · the $215.54 price screens above the $157.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) currently trades at $215.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $157.66, implying the stock looks roughly 26.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, National HealthCare Corporation generated revenue of $1.5B at a net margin of 8.1%. Revenue grew 2.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $23.9M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $113.81 (bear case) to $196.69 (bull case); at $215.54, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 134% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -27%, NHC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($150.36) versus Dividend Discount ($33.33). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 89
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
National HealthCare Corporation engages in the operation of services to skilled nursing facilities, assisted and independent living facilities, homecare and hospice agencies, and health hospitals. It operates through two segments: Inpatient and Homecare and Hospice Services.
Full company description
National HealthCare Corporation engages in the operation of services to skilled nursing facilities, assisted and independent living facilities, homecare and hospice agencies, and health hospitals. It operates through two segments: Inpatient and Homecare and Hospice Services. The company's skilled nursing facilities offer licensed therapy services, nutrition services, social services, activities, and housekeeping and laundry services, as well as medical services prescribed by physicians; and rehabilitative services, such as physical, speech, respiratory, and occupational therapy for patients recovering from strokes, heart attacks, orthopedic conditions, neurological illnesses, or other illnesses, injuries, or disabilities. It provides medical specialty units comprise memory care units and sub-acute nursing units that provide specialized care and programs for persons with Alzheimer's or related disorders; and assisted living facilities offer personal care services and assistance with general activities of daily living, such as dressing, bathing, meal preparation, and medication management. Its independent living facilities offers specially designed residential units for the active and ambulatory elderly and provide various ancillary services for residents, including restaurants, activity rooms and social areas; and behavioral health services to both adults and geriatric patients with psychiatric, emotional, and addictive disorders. In addition, the company homecare agencies assist those who wish to stay at home or in assisted living residences but still require some degree of medical care or assistance with daily activities; hospice agencies that provides hospice and palliative care; and operates pharmacies, as well as managed care insurance solutions. Further, the company offers management, accounting, and financial services; and leases its properties to third party operators. The company was founded in 1971 and is based in Murfreesboro, Tennessee.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
National HealthCare Corporation reported revenue of $1.5B in FY2025 versus $1.0B in FY2021, a compound +10.6%/yr. Reported net income was $120M in FY2025, compounding −3.5%/yr from FY2021.
NHC screens 27% overvalued. Compare with HCA Healthcare, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Jim Cramer Explains the Repeating Chart Pattern for National HealthCare Corporation
- NHC Completes Acquisition of Thirty-Five NHI Facilities
- National HealthCare Corporation Acquires Five Skilled Nursing Facilities in Strategic $50,500,000 Transaction
- NHC Reports First Quarter 2026 Earnings
Peer Group
Medical Care Facilities · 262 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| HCA Healthcare, Inc HCA | $378.85 | $554.93 | +46% |
| Fresenius SE FRE | €41.73 | €32.15 | -23% |
| Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013 | 235.00 SAR | 112.37 SAR | -52% |
| IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company, Q0F | 2.58 SGD | 1.44 SGD | -44% |
| Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC | $194.91 | $338.05 | +73% |
| Rede D'Or São Luiz S.A RDOR3 | R$36.01 | R$47.31 | +31% |
| DaVita Inc DVA | $231.61 | $255.97 | +11% |
| Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP | ₹8,955 | ₹2,955 | -67% |
| Fresenius Medical Care AG FMS | $24.68 | $45.60 | +85% |
| Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015 | ¥8.68 | ¥7.67 | -12% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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