National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of National HealthCare Corporation stock $157, price $209, that is 24.7% below the price, quality 72 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $47.92 – $247.94 · fair‑value band $113.96 – $196.13 · the $208.85 price screens above the $157.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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National HealthCare Corporation engages in the operation of services to skilled nursing facilities, assisted and independent living facilities, homecare and hospice agencies, and health hospitals. It operates through two segments: Inpatient and Homecare and Hospice Services.
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The company's skilled nursing facilities offer licensed therapy services, nutrition services, social services, activities, and housekeeping and laundry services, as well as medical services prescribed by physicians; and rehabilitative services, such as physical, speech, respiratory, and occupational therapy for patients recovering from strokes, heart attacks, orthopedic conditions, neurological illnesses, or other illnesses, injuries, or disabilities.
It provides medical specialty units comprise memory care units and sub-acute nursing units that provide specialized care and programs for persons with Alzheimer's or related disorders; and assisted living facilities offer personal care services and assistance with general activities of daily living, such as dressing, bathing, meal preparation, and medication management.
Its independent living facilities offers specially designed residential units for the active and ambulatory elderly and provide various ancillary services for residents, including restaurants, activity rooms and social areas; and behavioral health services to both adults and geriatric patients with psychiatric, emotional, and addictive disorders.
In addition, the company homecare agencies assist those who wish to stay at home or in assisted living residences but still require some degree of medical care or assistance with daily activities; hospice agencies that provides hospice and palliative care; and operates pharmacies, as well as managed care insurance solutions.
Further, the company offers management, accounting, and financial services; and leases its properties to third party operators. The company was founded in 1971 and is based in Murfreesboro, Tennessee.
Stock analysis
National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) currently trades at $208.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $157.21, 25% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $168.30 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $208.85 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $30.28, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $113.96 (bear) to $196.13 (bull), the price of $208.85 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
National HealthCare Corporation reported revenue of $1.5B in FY2025 versus $1.0B in FY2021, a compound +10.6%/yr. Reported net income was $120M in FY2025, compounding −3.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.3B Mid · P/E ratio 28.9 · P/S ratio 2.09 · EPS (TTM) $7.23 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 7.2% · Return on equity 10.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −25%, NHC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$113.96Fair Value $157.21Bull$196.13
Price $208.85 · Downside -24.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.95 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $174,863, on Jun 1, 2026. Over the same period, 9 people sold shares worth $8.9M.
SaleVicki L DodsonSr.VP Patient Srvcs4,834 shares at $225.00$1.1MSep 22, 2026
SaleBrian F KiddSVP, CFO6,813 shares at $225.70$1.5MSep 11, 2026
SaleJosh A McCrearySenior VP & General Counsel2,719 shares at $224.23$609,673Sep 10, 2026
SaleBen Anderson Flatt SrSenior VP & CIO7,000 shares at $227.57$1.6MAug 28, 2026
SaleDavid R. GiffordDirector1,779 shares at $225.42$401,022Aug 25, 2026
SaleStephen Fowler FlattCEO, Director2× since Nov 21, 2025: 2,500 shares, avg. $194.38$485,950Aug 19, 2026
SaleEmil E HassanDirector4× since Nov 12, 2025: 20,500 shares, avg. $159.53$3.3MJun 22, 2026
BuyLisa PierceyDirector949 shares at $184.26$174,863Jun 1, 2026
SaleRichard F Laroche JrDirector7,500 shares at $195.14$1.5MMay 21, 2026
SaleTimothy J. ShellySr.VP Operations2× since Dec 17, 2025: 4,307 shares, avg. $164.29$707,585May 19, 2026
Plus 8 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.78/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.2% a year
Revenue growth 34 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+13.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.6% vs 7.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.2% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Accelerating earnings growth and wider margins from rising occupancy plus greater real-estate control via the large acquisition form the main strength, while reimbursement pressures and integration challenges remain the key weakness.
Main risk: Reimbursement pressures together with integration challenges from the recent large-scale acquisition could cap operating-leverage gains in margins and earnings.
National HealthCare has posted accelerating earnings growth and wider margins as occupancy rises and the recent large-scale acquisition of facilities gives it greater control over its real estate and operations. Our models still see the shares as overvalued after the extended run. Will the operating leverage from these changes keep delivering, or will reimbursement and integration challenges cap the gains?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 234 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−24.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.6% · Above median
Return on assets7.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)7.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)10.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)28.9× · Pricier than median
P/B3.10× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)2.09× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)22.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA15.9× · Pricier than median
PEG0.82× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)33· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)42· sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 90
DIVIDEND (yield)25· sector 39
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $157.21 versus a price of $208.85, about 25% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NHC?
Our model-based fair value for National HealthCare Corporation is $157.21 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $208.85.
What is the quality score of NHC?
National HealthCare Corporation has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $157.21 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $113.96, optimistic scenario $196.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the National HealthCare Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $157.21, about 25% lower versus a price of $208.85 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $113.96, optimistic scenario $196.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)?
National HealthCare Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does National HealthCare Corporation pay a dividend?
National HealthCare Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 1.25% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) and when is the ex-dividend date?
National HealthCare Corporation pays a dividend of $2.62 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 30, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2004. The payout ratio is 36.2% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.62 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, National HealthCare Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +7.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.0 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NHC use?
Our models discount National HealthCare Corporation at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.64, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For National HealthCare Corporation that is +7.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at National HealthCare Corporation grew +9.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +7.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into National HealthCare Corporation (+7.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.49 %: that much free cash flow National HealthCare Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For National HealthCare Corporation it is $157.21 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $208.85. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is National HealthCare Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, NHC trades above its calculated fair value: price $208.85, fair value $157.21, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NHC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($208.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($157.21). For National HealthCare Corporation the two are $51.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is National HealthCare Corporation worth?
The market values National HealthCare Corporation at about $3.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $208.85; our models calculate a fair value of $157.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NHC?
Our models span a range for National HealthCare Corporation: cautious scenario $113.96, base $157.21, optimistic $196.13 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $208.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NHC?
National HealthCare Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.9 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $157.21 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 19.1. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 3.1, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 15.9.
What is the PEG ratio of NHC?
The PEG ratio of National HealthCare Corporation is 0.82 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)?
Balance-sheet figures for National HealthCare Corporation (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 10.6%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NHC from its 52-week high?
National HealthCare Corporation trades at $208.85, about 16% below its 52-week high of $247.94 and 70% above the low of $123.09 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $157.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to National HealthCare Corporation?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Tenet Healthcare Corporation, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is National HealthCare Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $208.85, calculated fair value $157.21 (−25%), Quality Score 72/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NHC calculated?
We run National HealthCare Corporation through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $157.21 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. National HealthCare Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $208.85. Our model-based fair value is $157.21, about 25% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with National HealthCare Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($196.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (72/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) come from?
Earnings per share at National HealthCare Corporation grew +6.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.6 %, EBIT margin +0.0 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of National HealthCare Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)?
The market capitalisation of National HealthCare Corporation is $3.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of National HealthCare Corporation is 2.09 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)?
Earnings per share at National HealthCare Corporation are $7.23 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)?
The dividend yield of National HealthCare Corporation is 1.3% (payout 36.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)?
The net margin of National HealthCare Corporation is 7.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of National HealthCare Corporation is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of National HealthCare Corporation is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)?
The operating margin of National HealthCare Corporation is 10.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)?
Revenue at National HealthCare Corporation is growing +6.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)?
Earnings per share at National HealthCare Corporation are growing −66.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) hold?
National HealthCare Corporation holds more cash than debt, $23.9M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026