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New Hope Corporation (NHPEF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of New Hope Corporation $4.69, price $4.27, upside +9.8%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
New Hope Corporation
NHPEF · USNeutralQuality growthThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value $4.69 · Fairly valued (+9.8%)
!Quality 57/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +10.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!5.9% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Narrow moat 39/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.2579 – $4.72 · fair‑value band $3.30 – $7.33 · the $4.27 price screens below the $4.69 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
New Hope Corporation Limited engages in the development and operation of coal mines. It operates through three segments: Coal Mining in Queensland, Coal Mining in New South Wales, and Other.
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New Hope Corporation Limited engages in the development and operation of coal mines. It operates through three segments: Coal Mining in Queensland, Coal Mining in New South Wales, and Other. The company holds interests in the New Acland mine, an open-cut thermal coal mine located in north-west of Oakey, southeast Queensland; Queensland Bulk Handling is a 12 million tonnes per annum coal export facility; and Bengalla mine, an open-cut coal mine situated near Muswellbrook, New South Wales. It also engages in port handling and logistics, investment in coal mines, and agriculture activities, as well as development and production of oil and gas. In addition, the company holds interests in the Bengalla exploration license situated in New South Wales; West Muswellbrook assessment lease located to the west of Muswellbrook, New South Wales; Maxwell Mine situated on south of Muswellbrook, New South Wales; and various undeveloped coal assets, including the North Surat Coal project and Bee Creek tenement in Queensland. Additionally, the company is involved in the port operation; and marketing activities. It has operations in Australia, Japan, China, Taiwan, Chile, Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and internationally. The company was founded in 1952 and is headquartered in Brisbane, Australia.
Stock analysis
New Hope Corporation (NHPEF) currently trades at $4.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.69, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.9%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $4.79 per share, and 10 of the 26 models we run sit above the $4.27 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.45, and 16 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $3.30 (bear) to $7.33 (bull), the price of $4.27 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
New Hope Corporation reported revenue of A$1.8B in FY2025 versus A$1.0B in FY2021, a compound +14.0%/yr. Reported net income was A$439M in FY2025, compounding +53.4%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $3.9B · P/E ratio 32.4 · P/S ratio 8.12 · EPS (TTM) $0.1300 · Dividend yield 5.9% · Net margin 25.1% · Return on equity 5.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 24.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 73% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at 10%, NHPEF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.30
Fair Value $4.69
Bull $7.33
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$2.73
$4.40
$7.01
76
Growth DCF
$2.74
$4.32
$6.75
75
EPV
$1.87
$2.15
$2.39
74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$2.73
$4.40
$7.01
76
Owner Earnings
$2.69
$4.34
$6.91
73
5Y Revenue Exit
$1.79
$2.66
$3.78
70
5Y EBITDA Exit
$2.17
$3.41
$4.88
72
5Y P/E Exit
$3.27
$5.56
$8.08
68
10Y Revenue Exit
$2.07
$2.97
$4.20
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
$2.35
$3.48
$5.06
66
10Y P/E Exit
$3.04
$4.99
$7.55
61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$2.46
$9.51
$12.89
62
Lynch FV
$2.33
$3.32
$4.32
59
PEG = 1.0
$2.33
$3.32
$4.32
55
EPV
$1.87
$2.15
$2.39
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$2.51
$5.00
$7.57
64
DDM Multi-Stage
$2.51
$4.32
$5.28
65
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$3.80
$5.07
$6.34
63
P/S Multiple
$1.30
$1.73
$2.17
58
P/B Multiple
$2.93
$3.90
$4.88
55
EV/EBIT
$2.56
$3.38
$4.20
66
EV/EBITDA
$2.06
$2.70
$3.35
67
EV/Revenue
$1.33
$1.85
$2.37
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.08
$1.45
$2.17
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$2.74
$4.32
$6.75
75
Rev-Margin DCF
$1.79
$2.68
$3.77
70
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$2.28
$2.79
$3.82
73
ROIC Compounder
$1.87
$2.15
$2.69
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$3.36
$4.79
$6.23
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
57/100
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Profitability
62
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
59
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
85
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
62
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
67
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
91
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
52
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.4% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+28.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+22.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.22.8% vs 21.3%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−18% → 23%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.9% a year for the price and +3.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+7.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+7.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+6.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)+6.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.3%
Watch NHPEF, get fair value alerts →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
- New Hope Corp Ltd (NHPEF) (FY 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Volumes, $514 Million ...
- New Hope Corp Ltd (NHPEF) (Q4 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Production and Strong Cash ...
- New Hope Corp Ltd (NHPEF) (Half Year 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Resilient Performance ...
- New Hope Corporation Limited's (ASX:NHC) largest shareholders are public companies with 40% ownership, individual investors own 33%
Compare New Hope Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Coal
Oil & gas
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Frequently asked questions
Is New Hope Corporation (NHPEF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.69 versus a price of $4.27, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NHPEF?
Our model-based fair value for New Hope Corporation is $4.69 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.27.
What is the quality score of NHPEF?
New Hope Corporation has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for New Hope Corporation (NHPEF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.69 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.30, optimistic scenario $7.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the New Hope Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.69, about +10% upside versus a price of $4.27 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $3.30, optimistic scenario $7.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of New Hope Corporation (NHPEF)?
New Hope Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$1.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does New Hope Corporation pay a dividend?
New Hope Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.85% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into New Hope Corporation (NHPEF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, New Hope Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +10.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NHPEF use?
Our models discount New Hope Corporation at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For New Hope Corporation that is +10.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has New Hope Corporation (NHPEF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at New Hope Corporation grew +10.3 % a year. The price currently implies +10.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of New Hope Corporation (NHPEF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into New Hope Corporation (+10.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of New Hope Corporation (NHPEF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.66 %: that much free cash flow New Hope Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of New Hope Corporation (NHPEF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For New Hope Corporation it is $4.69 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $4.27. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is New Hope Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NHPEF trades below its calculated fair value: price $4.27, fair value $4.69, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NHPEF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.27); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.69). For New Hope Corporation the two are $0.4169 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is New Hope Corporation worth?
The market values New Hope Corporation at about $3.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $4.27; our models calculate a fair value of $4.69 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NHPEF?
Our models span a range for New Hope Corporation: cautious scenario $3.30, base $4.69, optimistic $7.33 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $4.27). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is NHPEF from its 52-week high?
New Hope Corporation trades at $4.27, about 10% below its 52-week high of $4.72 and 73% above the low of $2.47 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.69 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to New Hope Corporation?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Yankuang Energy Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is New Hope Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $4.27, calculated fair value $4.69 (+10%), Quality Score 57/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NHPEF calculated?
We run New Hope Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.69, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. New Hope Corporation currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of New Hope Corporation (NHPEF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $4.27. Our model-based fair value is $4.69, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with New Hope Corporation right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($3.30 to $7.33) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of New Hope Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of New Hope Corporation (NHPEF)?
The market capitalisation of New Hope Corporation is $3.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of New Hope Corporation (NHPEF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of New Hope Corporation is 32.4. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of New Hope Corporation (NHPEF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of New Hope Corporation is 8.12 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of New Hope Corporation (NHPEF)?
Earnings per share at New Hope Corporation are $0.1300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of New Hope Corporation (NHPEF)?
The dividend yield of New Hope Corporation is 5.9% (payout 192%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of New Hope Corporation (NHPEF)?
The net margin of New Hope Corporation is 25.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of New Hope Corporation (NHPEF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of New Hope Corporation is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of New Hope Corporation (NHPEF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of New Hope Corporation is 24.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of New Hope Corporation (NHPEF)?
The operating margin of New Hope Corporation is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at New Hope Corporation (NHPEF)?
Revenue at New Hope Corporation is growing −20.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at New Hope Corporation (NHPEF)?
Earnings per share at New Hope Corporation are growing −83.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does New Hope Corporation (NHPEF) carry?
The net debt of New Hope Corporation is A$41.0M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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