Monex Group (NNL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Monex Group €3.17, price €3.88, upside -18.3%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
In Frankfurt, only 0 of the last 20 trading days (30 days) had any turnover. On the other days the price is an indicative quote without trading, so we do not list this stock in the radar. It stays reachable through search.
MGBroad dataOct 1, 2026
Monex Group
NNL · F
Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.31 – €6.87 · fair‑value band €2.32 – €4.27 · the €3.88 price screens above the €3.17 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
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Monex Group, Inc., an online financial institution, provides retail online brokerage services in Japan, the United States, and internationally.
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Monex Group, Inc., an online financial institution, provides retail online brokerage services in Japan, the United States, and internationally. The company offers M&A advisory; forex and cryptocurrency exchange; securities investment; investor and investment education; asset and wealth management; education and child developmental support system; life settlement business; Genomic data platform business; investment fund and portfolio management, and exempt market dealership; investment advisory; private banking; custodial trust for the administration and disposition of trust assets; venture capital; and human resource development services. It also engages in the development of trading technologies; research and development projects; development and operation of CraftChat, a marketing SaaS; management and utilization services for genomic, medical, and healthcare data; research, design, study, development, and consultation on cryptocurrency; and purchase and resale of insurance contracts. The company was formerly known as Monex Beans Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Monex Group, Inc. in July 2008. Monex Group, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Minato, Japan.
Stock analysis
Monex Group (NNL) currently trades at €3.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.17, 18.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €3.30 per share, and 2 of the 13 models we run sit above the €3.88 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €1.31, and 11 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €2.32 (bear) to €4.27 (bull), the price of €3.88 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Monex Group reported revenue of ¥89.8B in FY2026 versus ¥96.3B in FY2022, a compound −1.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥10.9B in FY2026, compounding −4.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €975M · P/E ratio 16.2 · P/S ratio 1.96 · EPS (TTM) €0.2400 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 12.2% · Return on equity 8.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −18%, NNL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €2.32Fair Value €3.17Bull €4.27
Price €3.88 · Upside -18.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.68/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.1% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+1.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.3% vs 44.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.37% → 26%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−4.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.3% a year for the price and −6.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 448 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−18.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8.3% · Above median
Return on assets1.4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)12.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)11.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.89× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Monex Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NNL.F
Frequently asked questions
Is Monex Group (NNL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €3.17 versus a price of €3.88, about −18% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NNL?
Our model-based fair value for Monex Group is €3.17 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €3.88.
What is the quality score of NNL?
Monex Group has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Monex Group (NNL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €3.17 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.32, optimistic scenario €4.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Monex Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €3.17, about −18% upside versus a price of €3.88 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €2.32, optimistic scenario €4.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Monex Group (NNL)?
Monex Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥90.3B (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
Does Monex Group pay a dividend?
Monex Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.19% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Monex Group (NNL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Monex Group would have to grow free cash flow by +7.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.6 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NNL use?
Our models discount Monex Group at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.15, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Monex Group that is +7.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Monex Group (NNL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Monex Group grew +2.6 % a year. The price currently implies +7.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Monex Group (NNL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Monex Group (+7.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Monex Group (NNL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.42 %: that much free cash flow Monex Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Monex Group (NNL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Monex Group it is €3.17 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of €3.88. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Monex Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, NNL trades above its calculated fair value: price €3.88, fair value €3.17, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NNL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€3.88); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€3.17). For Monex Group the two are €0.7100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Monex Group worth?
The market values Monex Group at about €975M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is €3.88; our models calculate a fair value of €3.17 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NNL?
Our models span a range for Monex Group: cautious scenario €2.32, base €3.17, optimistic €4.27 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price €3.88). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NNL?
Monex Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.2 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €3.17 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 7.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Monex Group (NNL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Monex Group (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 8.3%, debt of 0.89 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NNL from its 52-week high?
Monex Group trades at €3.88, about 15% below its 52-week high of €4.55 and 21% above the low of €3.21 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €3.17 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Monex Group?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Monex Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price €3.88, calculated fair value €3.17 (−18%), Quality Score 59/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NNL calculated?
We run Monex Group through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €3.17, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Monex Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Monex Group (NNL)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was €3.88. Our model-based fair value is €3.17, about −18% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Monex Group right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€2.32 to €4.27) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Monex Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Monex Group (NNL)?
The market capitalisation of Monex Group is €975M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Monex Group (NNL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Monex Group is 1.96 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Monex Group (NNL)?
Earnings per share at Monex Group are €0.2400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Monex Group (NNL)?
The dividend yield of Monex Group is 4.2% (payout 67.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Monex Group (NNL)?
The net margin of Monex Group is 12.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Monex Group (NNL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Monex Group is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Monex Group (NNL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Monex Group is 2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Monex Group (NNL)?
The operating margin of Monex Group is 11.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Monex Group (NNL)?
Revenue at Monex Group is growing +4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Monex Group (NNL)?
Earnings per share at Monex Group are growing +3.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Monex Group (NNL) carry?
The net debt of Monex Group is ¥59.4B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 4.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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