Noble Development Public Company (NOBLE) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · TH · Market cap 2.6B THB
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from 4.43 THB to 4.80 THB (+8.4%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +0.5% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 161% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (3.60 THB). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1.63 THB – 6.35 THB · fair‑value band 3.60 THB – 6.00 THB · the 1.84 THB price screens below the 4.80 THB fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Noble Development Public Company (NOBLE) currently trades at 1.84 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4.80 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 160.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Noble Development Public Company generated revenue of 6.6B THB at a net margin of 8.4%. Revenue declined 19.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.2%. Net debt stands at 12.6B THB. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 3.60 THB (bear case) to 6.00 THB (bull case); at 1.84 THB, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at 161%, NOBLE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (26.24 THB) versus Dividend Discount (1.57 THB). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Noble Development Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells real estate properties in Thailand. It operates through Condominium, House and Land, Rental and Service Business, and Others segments.
Full company description
Noble Development Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells real estate properties in Thailand. It operates through Condominium, House and Land, Rental and Service Business, and Others segments. It is involved in the sale of lands, lands and single detached houses, interior equipment, and condominium units; and provision of construction, rental and services, construction consulting, management, and juristic management services. The company is also involved in the manufacturing and sale of furniture. Noble Development Public Company Limited was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Noble Development Public Company reported revenue of 6.9B THB in FY2025 versus 6.8B THB in FY2021, a compound +0.4%/yr. Reported net income was 593M THB in FY2025, compounding −10.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +13.6 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Real Estate - Development · 588 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DLF Limited DLF | ₹657.75 | ₹159.49 | -76% |
| Lodha Developers Limited LODHA | ₹1,188 | ₹583.43 | -51% |
| PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI | 6,125 IDR | 1,330 IDR | -78% |
| Oberoi Realty Limited OBEROIRLTY | ₹1,925 | ₹1,183 | -39% |
| Godrej Properties Limited GODREJPROP | ₹2,102 | ₹1,044 | -50% |
| PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT | 1,080 IDR | 1,674 IDR | +55% |
| PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE | 555.00 IDR | 1,388 IDR | +150% |
| PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL | 64.00 IDR | 84.16 IDR | +32% |
| PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA | 555.00 IDR | 1,388 IDR | +150% |
| PT Duta Pertiwi Tbk DUTI | 4,100 IDR | 6,239 IDR | +52% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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