NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. (NOVARTIND) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. ₹345, price ₹1,968, upside -82.5%, quality 71 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹504.93 – ₹2,425 · fair‑value band ₹263.44 – ₹501.31 · the ₹1,968 price screens above the ₹344.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
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Novartis India Limited operates as a healthcare company in India. The company offers therapeutic products in the areas of bone and pain products under the Voveran brand; transplantation immunology products under the Simulect, Certican, Sandimmun, Neoral, and Myfortic brands. It also offers neurosciences products under the Tegrital and Exelon brands.
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Novartis India Limited operates as a healthcare company in India. The company offers therapeutic products in the areas of bone and pain products under the Voveran brand; transplantation immunology products under the Simulect, Certican, Sandimmun, Neoral, and Myfortic brands. It also offers neurosciences products under the Tegrital and Exelon brands. Novartis India Limited was incorporated in 1947 and is based in Mumbai, India. The company is a subsidiary of Novartis AG.
Stock analysis
NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. (NOVARTIND) currently trades at ₹1,968, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹344.75, 82.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹627.07 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the ₹1,968 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ₹209.39, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹263.44 (bear) to ₹501.31 (bull), the price of ₹1,968 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. reported revenue of ₹3.5B in FY2026 versus ₹3.9B in FY2022, a compound −2.2%/yr. Reported net income was ₹932M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap ₹48.6B (≈ $505M) · P/E ratio 49.7 · P/S ratio 13.1 · EPS (TTM) ₹39.63 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 26.3% · Return on equity 11.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 159% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −82%, NOVARTIND screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹263.44Fair Value ₹344.75Bull ₹501.31
Price ₹1,968 · Upside -82.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹20.30 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+44.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+43.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 26%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.9%/yr over ~5Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+50.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +44.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 602 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−82.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11.6% · Above median
Return on assets6.0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)26.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)33.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth18.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.3% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)49.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B5.94× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)13.11× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF104.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA47.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.88× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)93· sector 24
PAST (return on equity)47· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)25· sector 31
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NOVARTIND
Frequently asked questions
Is NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. (NOVARTIND) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹344.75 versus a price of ₹1,968, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NOVARTIND?
Our model-based fair value for NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. is ₹344.75 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹1,968.
What is the quality score of NOVARTIND?
NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. (NOVARTIND)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹344.75 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹263.44, optimistic scenario ₹501.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹344.75, about −82% upside versus a price of ₹1,968 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹263.44, optimistic scenario ₹501.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. (NOVARTIND)?
NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹3.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
Does NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. pay a dividend?
NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.27% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. (NOVARTIND)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. would have to grow free cash flow by +50.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.6 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NOVARTIND use?
Our models discount NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. that is +50.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. (NOVARTIND) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. grew -0.6 % a year. The price currently implies +50.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. (NOVARTIND) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. (+50.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. (NOVARTIND)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.95 %: that much free cash flow NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. (NOVARTIND)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. it is ₹344.75 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of ₹1,968. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, NOVARTIND trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹1,968, fair value ₹344.75, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NOVARTIND?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹1,968); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹344.75). For NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. the two are ₹1,623 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. worth?
The market values NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. at about ₹48.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is ₹1,968; our models calculate a fair value of ₹344.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NOVARTIND?
Our models span a range for NOVARTIS INDIA LTD.: cautious scenario ₹263.44, base ₹344.75, optimistic ₹501.31 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price ₹1,968). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NOVARTIND?
NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 49.7 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹344.75 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 5.9, P/S 13.1, EV/EBITDA 47.0.
What is the PEG ratio of NOVARTIND?
The PEG ratio of NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. is 1.88 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. (NOVARTIND)?
Balance-sheet figures for NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 11.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NOVARTIND from its 52-week high?
NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. trades at ₹1,968, about 19% below its 52-week high of ₹2,425 and 159% above the low of ₹759.30 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹344.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NOVARTIS INDIA LTD.?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price ₹1,968, calculated fair value ₹344.75 (−82%), Quality Score 71/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NOVARTIND calculated?
We run NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹344.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. (NOVARTIND)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹1,968. Our model-based fair value is ₹344.75, about −82% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. right now?
A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹501.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (₹263.44 to ₹501.31) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of NOVARTIS INDIA LTD.
How large is the market capitalisation of NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. (NOVARTIND)?
The market capitalisation of NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. is ₹48.6B (≈ $505M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. (NOVARTIND)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. is 13.1 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. (NOVARTIND)?
Earnings per share at NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. are ₹39.63 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 49.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. (NOVARTIND)?
The dividend yield of NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. is 1.3% (payout 63.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. (NOVARTIND)?
The net margin of NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. is 26.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. (NOVARTIND)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. is 11.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. (NOVARTIND)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. is 6.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. (NOVARTIND)?
The operating margin of NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. is 33.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. (NOVARTIND)?
Revenue at NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. is growing +18.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. (NOVARTIND)?
Earnings per share at NOVARTIS INDIA LTD. are growing +16.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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