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Novartis AG (NOVN) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · CH · Market cap CHF 239B · ISIN CH0012005267

What is Novartis AG really worth?

NA Novartis AG NOVN · SW
PriceCHF 129.58
Fair ValueCHF 114.90
Upside−11.3%
Quality85/100

A strong business, but trading 13% above our fair value of CHF 114.90.

As of Aug 30, 2026, the fair value of Novartis AG is CHF 114.90 per share against a price of CHF 129.58, so the fair value sits 11% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +2.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 23.9% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (9/15)
✓Wide moat 89/100

Risks

!Weak on valuation: 18 out of 100

For context

·2.86% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range CHF 82.83 – CHF 146.98

Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 7 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 30, 2026, revised from CHF 114.29 to CHF 114.90 (+0.5%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +4.1% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
  • The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

CHF 131.32 CHF 57.59 Fair Value CHF 114.90 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range CHF 57.59 – CHF 131.32 · fair‑value band CHF 82.83 – CHF 146.98 · the CHF 129.58 price screens above the CHF 114.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

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Analysis

Novartis AG (NOVN) currently trades at CHF 129.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 114.90, implying the stock looks roughly 12.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 85/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of CHF 151.79 per share, and 11 of the 25 models we run sit above the CHF 129.58 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at CHF 16.19, and 14 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Novartis AG generated revenue of CHF 56.6B at a net margin of 23.9%. Revenue declined 0.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 34.9%. Net debt stands at CHF 25.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026

Our scenario range runs from CHF 82.83 (bear case) to CHF 146.98 (bull case); at CHF 129.58, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −11%, NOVN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly CHF 1.32 per share, which is 1.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence CHF 99.88 CHF 151.79 CHF 229.70 80
Growth DCF CHF 103.51 CHF 152.15 CHF 222.15 78
Owner Earnings CHF 100.90 CHF 153.29 CHF 231.93 76
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence CHF 99.88 CHF 151.79 CHF 229.70 80
Owner Earnings CHF 100.90 CHF 153.29 CHF 231.93 76
5Y Revenue Exit CHF 67.64 CHF 100.91 CHF 141.25 73
5Y EBITDA Exit CHF 102.59 CHF 163.12 CHF 230.59 75
5Y P/E Exit CHF 101.49 CHF 161.15 CHF 220.50 71
10Y Revenue Exit CHF 76.40 CHF 108.78 CHF 147.87 67
10Y EBITDA Exit CHF 100.64 CHF 151.82 CHF 214.53 68
10Y P/E Exit CHF 99.94 CHF 150.46 CHF 207.00 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd CHF 52.21 CHF 122.81 CHF 158.08 65
PEG = 1.0 CHF 21.12 CHF 30.17 CHF 39.22 57
EPV CHF 71.52 CHF 85.66 CHF 98.24 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM CHF 41.29 CHF 73.49 CHF 115.95 67
DDM Multi-Stage CHF 41.29 CHF 62.32 CHF 86.62 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple CHF 126.68 CHF 168.90 CHF 211.13 63
P/S Multiple CHF 78.59 CHF 104.79 CHF 130.98 58
P/B Multiple CHF 81.54 CHF 108.72 CHF 135.90 55
EV/EBIT CHF 110.26 CHF 149.89 CHF 189.53 66
EV/EBITDA CHF 119.97 CHF 162.84 CHF 205.72 67
EV/Revenue CHF 54.22 CHF 81.17 CHF 108.11 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) CHF 12.08 CHF 16.19 CHF 24.16 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF CHF 103.51 CHF 152.15 CHF 222.15 78
Rev-Margin DCF CHF 67.64 CHF 102.39 CHF 140.07 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income CHF 50.40 CHF 64.09 CHF 330.49 64
ROIC Compounder CHF 75.07 CHF 94.77 CHF 116.11 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E CHF 95.60 CHF 136.58 CHF 177.55 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (CHF 151.79) versus Asset-Based (CHF 16.19). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 23.6
P/S ratio 6.04 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) CHF 5.65 price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.6
Dividend yield 2.9% payout 65.5%
Net margin 25.6% FY2025
Return on equity 34.9% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 10.8% avg 5y
Operating margin 30.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) CHF 56.6B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −0.7% 3y avg +9.5%
EPS growth (YoY) −9.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow CHF 18.4B FY2025
Net debt CHF 25.6B FY2025 · ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 85/100

Of which business quality 80 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75

Profitability 75
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 88
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 70
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 94
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 58
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 84
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Novartis AG researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, markets, and sells pharmaceutical medicines in Switzerland and internationally.

Full company description

Novartis AG researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, markets, and sells pharmaceutical medicines in Switzerland and internationally. The company offers Entresto, an angiotensin receptorneprilysin inhibitor to treat symptomatic chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF); Cosentyx to treat plaque psoriasis, pso riatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and nonradiographic axial spondy loarthritis; Kisqali, a selective oral cyclin dependent inhibitor of kinases 4 and 6 (CDK4/6); Promacta/Revolade to treat immune thrombocytopenia (ITP), thrombocytopenia, and patients with severe aplastic anemia (SAA); Tafinlar+Mekinist, an oral combination therapy to treat patients with certain types of cancers; and Jakavi for the treatment of myelofibrosis, polycythemia vera, and acute or chronic graftversushost disease (GvHD). It also provides Tasigna to treat philadelphia chromosomepositive chronic myeloid leukemia in the chronic and/or accelerated phase; Xolair for the treatment of allergic asthma and nasal polyps or severe chronic rhinosi nusitis with nasal polyps; Ilaris to treat fever syndromes, Still's disease, and acute gouty arthritis; Pluvicto to treat prostatespecific membrane anti genpositive metastatic castrationresistant prostate cancer; Sandostatin SC and Sandostatin LAR to treat acromegaly carcinoid tumors and other types of functional gastro intestinal and pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors; Zolgensma for the treatment of genetic root cause of spinal muscular atrophy; Lucentis; Leqvio to reduce LDL cholesterol; Lutathera; Scemblix; and Fabhalta. The company focuses on therapeutic areas, such as cardiovascular, renal and metabolic, immunology, neuroscience, oncology, and hematology. It has a license and collaboration agreement with Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize Leqvio (inclisiran), a therapy to reduce LDL cholesterol. Novartis AG was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Novartis AG reported revenue of $57.1B in FY2025 versus $44.0B in FY2021, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was $14.6B in FY2025, compounding −11.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 73/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
CHF 57.1B
Latest YoY
+10.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (27Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.4%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+11.1% · in CHF
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+8.2%
Dividend yield2.9%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 8.2% vs 10Y 6.1%, steady
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20.3% (2020) → 31.2% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop69% (2022) · in CHF
Revenue +6.8%/yr
FY21 $44.0B
FY22 $43.5B
FY23 $46.7B
FY24 $51.7B
FY25 $57.1B
Net income −11.6%/yr
FY21 $24.0B
FY22 $7.0B
FY23 $14.9B
FY24 $11.9B
FY25 $14.6B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +4.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +2.2 %

of which total revenue +0.1 % · buybacks/dilution +2.1 %

EBIT margin +4.3 %
Tax rate −0.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −2.3 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

NOVN screens 13% overvalued. Compare with Eli Lilly and Company →

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Novartis AG · Fair Value
CHF 114.90 −13%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Novartis AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NOVN

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Drug Manufacturers - General · 75 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 85 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −11% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 35% · Top 25%
Return on assets 11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 24% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 30% · Top 25%
Revenue growth −1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.9% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.61× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 23.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 6.39× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 5.21× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 16.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 13.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG 4.17× · Pricier than 75% of peers

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Novartis AG deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years-0.9 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+2.7 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+4.4 %
FCF yield on price7.28 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models7.4 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE18 · sector 0
FUTURE0 · sector 29
PAST100 · sector 49
HEALTH70 · sector 94
DIVIDEND57 · sector 42

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Eli Lilly and Company LLY $1,176 $389.47 −67%
Johnson & Johnson, JNJ $275.23 $169.04 −39%
AbbVie Inc ABBV $256.46 $67.72 −74%
Roche Holding RO CHF 374.60 CHF 306.54 −18%
Merck & Co MRK €131.98 €101.38 −23%
Novo Nordisk A/S NOVOB kr 295.50 kr 409.46 +39%
Amgen Inc AMGN $437.23 $252.02 −42%
Gilead Sciences, Inc GILD $151.00 $146.50 −3%
Pfizer Inc PFE $28.02 $24.87 −11%
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY $66.58 $75.98 +14%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Novartis AG (NOVN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 114.90 versus a price of CHF 129.58, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NOVN?
Our model-based fair value for Novartis AG is CHF 114.90 (as of Aug 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 129.58.
What is the quality score of NOVN?
Novartis AG has a Quality Score of 85/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Novartis AG (NOVN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 114.90 (as of Aug 30, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 82.83, optimistic scenario CHF 146.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Novartis AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 114.90, about −11% upside versus a price of CHF 129.58 (overvalued). Cautious scenario CHF 82.83, optimistic scenario CHF 146.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Novartis AG (NOVN)?
Novartis AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 56.6B (latest available figure, as of Aug 30, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of NOVN?
The net profit margin of Novartis AG is about 23.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 23.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Novartis AG pay a dividend?
Novartis AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.86% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Novartis AG (NOVN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Novartis AG would have to grow free cash flow by -0.9 % per year for ten years (discount rate 7.4 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.7 % per year. As of Aug 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NOVN use?
Our models discount Novartis AG at 7.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.50, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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