Northland Power Inc. (NPI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Northland Power Inc. C$32.97, price C$22.15, upside +48.9%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$15.29 – C$35.86 · fair‑value band C$18.51 – C$32.97 · the C$22.15 price screens below the C$32.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Northland Power Inc. operates as a power producer in Canada, the Netherlands, Germany, Colombia, Spain, the United States, and internationally. The company produces electricity from renewable resources, such as offshore and onshore wind; solar; natural gas; and battery energy storage for sale under power purchase agreements and other revenue arrangements.
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Northland Power Inc. operates as a power producer in Canada, the Netherlands, Germany, Colombia, Spain, the United States, and internationally. The company produces electricity from renewable resources, such as offshore and onshore wind; solar; natural gas; and battery energy storage for sale under power purchase agreements and other revenue arrangements. As of December 31, 2025, it owned or had a net economic interest in 3,014 MW of power-producing facilities with a total gross operating capacity of approximately 3,498 MW and a regulated utility. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Stock analysis
Northland Power Inc. (NPI) currently trades at C$22.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$32.97, implying the stock looks roughly 32.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$46.18 per share, and 10 of the 16 models we run sit above the C$22.15 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at C$7.84, and 6 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$18.51 (bear) to C$32.97 (bull), the price of C$22.15 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Northland Power Inc. reported revenue of C$2.4B in FY2025 versus C$2.1B in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was −C$163M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap C$5.8B (≈ $4.1B) · P/E ex one-offs 15.5 · P/S ratio 2.27 · EPS (TTM) C$−0.5700 · Dividend yield 4.7% · Net margin −6.7% · Return on equity −1.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 49%, NPI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$18.51Fair Value C$32.97Bull C$32.97
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.42/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.8% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
43.7% (2020) → 32.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.2% a year for the price and −0.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (79 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 208 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Above median
Fair Value upside+49% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)−6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)46% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.50× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Northland Power Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NPI
Frequently asked questions
Is Northland Power Inc. (NPI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$32.97 versus a price of C$22.15, about +49% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NPI?
Our model-based fair value for Northland Power Inc. is C$32.97 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$22.15.
What is the quality score of NPI?
Northland Power Inc. has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Northland Power Inc. (NPI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$32.97 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$18.51, optimistic scenario C$32.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Northland Power Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$32.97, about +49% upside versus a price of C$22.15 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$18.51, optimistic scenario C$32.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Northland Power Inc. (NPI)?
Northland Power Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$2.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Northland Power Inc. pay a dividend?
Northland Power Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.70% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Northland Power Inc. (NPI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Northland Power Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by -2.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NPI use?
Our models discount Northland Power Inc. at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.61, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Northland Power Inc. that is -2.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Northland Power Inc. (NPI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Northland Power Inc. grew +3.4 % a year. The price currently implies -2.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Northland Power Inc. (NPI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Northland Power Inc. (-2.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Northland Power Inc. (NPI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.87 %: that much free cash flow Northland Power Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Northland Power Inc. (NPI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Northland Power Inc. it is C$32.97 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of C$22.15. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Northland Power Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NPI trades below its calculated fair value: price C$22.15, fair value C$32.97, a gap of about +49% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NPI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$22.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$32.97). For Northland Power Inc. the two are C$10.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Northland Power Inc. worth?
The market values Northland Power Inc. at about C$5.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is C$22.15; our models calculate a fair value of C$32.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NPI?
Our models span a range for Northland Power Inc.: cautious scenario C$18.51, base C$32.97, optimistic C$32.97 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price C$22.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of NPI?
The PEG ratio of Northland Power Inc. is 2.57 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Northland Power Inc. (NPI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Northland Power Inc. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −1.3%, debt of 1.50 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NPI from its 52-week high?
Northland Power Inc. trades at C$22.15, about 12% below its 52-week high of C$25.12 and 40% above the low of C$15.82 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$32.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Northland Power Inc.?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Adani Green Energy Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Northland Power Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price C$22.15, calculated fair value C$32.97 (+49%), Quality Score 48/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NPI calculated?
We run Northland Power Inc. through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$32.97, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Northland Power Inc. currently trades 49 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Northland Power Inc. (NPI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was C$22.15. Our model-based fair value is C$32.97, about +49% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Northland Power Inc. right now?
Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Northland Power Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Northland Power Inc. (NPI)?
The market capitalisation of Northland Power Inc. is C$5.8B (≈ $4.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Northland Power Inc. (NPI) excluding one-off items?
Excluding one-off items, the price-to-earnings ratio of Northland Power Inc. is 15.5 (fiscal year 2025, the reported result was a loss).
What is the P/S ratio of Northland Power Inc. (NPI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Northland Power Inc. is 2.27 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Northland Power Inc. (NPI)?
Earnings per share at Northland Power Inc. are C$−0.5700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Northland Power Inc. (NPI)?
The dividend yield of Northland Power Inc. is 4.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Northland Power Inc. (NPI)?
The net margin of Northland Power Inc. is −6.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Northland Power Inc. (NPI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Northland Power Inc. is −1.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Northland Power Inc. (NPI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Northland Power Inc. is 6.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Northland Power Inc. (NPI)?
The operating margin of Northland Power Inc. is 46.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Northland Power Inc. (NPI)?
Revenue at Northland Power Inc. is growing +16.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Northland Power Inc. (NPI)?
Earnings per share at Northland Power Inc. are growing +31.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Northland Power Inc. (NPI) carry?
The net debt of Northland Power Inc. is C$6.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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