Neoenergia S.A (NRGIY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jun 2, 2026: fair value of Neoenergia S.A $2.13, price $0.96, upside +120.8%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Neoenergia S.A for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
30‑month range $0.9649 – $25.79 · fair‑value band $0.8900 – $2.93 · the $0.9649 price screens below the $2.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow Neoenergia in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Neoenergia is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Neoenergia S.A. generates, transmits, distributes, trades in, and commercializes electric energy in Brazil. It operates through Networks, Renewables, Liberalized, and Others.
Show more
Neoenergia S.A. generates, transmits, distributes, trades in, and commercializes electric energy in Brazil. It operates through Networks, Renewables, Liberalized, and Others. The company provides free energy market solutions, such as power management, metering and billing systems, renewable energy certificates, and long-term contracts; green hydrogen, that includes green ammonia, steel, and methanol; industrial gas solutions; solar power plant; and electrified fleet solutions for businesses. It also offers solar electricity charge, insurance, and services for residential customers. The company was founded in 1997 and is based in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil. Neoenergia S.A. is a subsidiary of Iberdrola Energía, S.A.U.
Stock analysis
Neoenergia S.A (NRGIY) currently trades at $0.9649, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.13, implying the stock looks roughly 54.7% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $2.17 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the $0.9649 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.3500, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.8900 (bear) to $2.93 (bull), the price of $0.9649 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Neoenergia S.A reported revenue of R$46.8B in FY2025 versus R$40.2B in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was R$5.0B in FY2025, compounding +6.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $7.3B · P/E ratio 6.9 · P/S ratio 0.74 · EPS (TTM) $3.48 · Net margin 10.7% · Return on equity 14.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.5% · Operating margin 22.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 121%, NRGIY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.8900Fair Value $2.13Bull $2.93
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+8.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 24%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in BRL, Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 155 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Above median
Fair Value upside+120.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)9.9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)22.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)98.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.37× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Neoenergia S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NRGIY
Frequently asked questions
Is Neoenergia S.A (NRGIY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.13 versus the last price from Jun 2, 2026 of $0.9649, about +121% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NRGIY?
Our model-based fair value for Neoenergia S.A is $2.13 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jun 2, 2026): $0.9649.
What is the quality score of NRGIY?
Neoenergia S.A has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Neoenergia S.A (NRGIY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.13 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.8900, optimistic scenario $2.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Neoenergia S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.13, about +121% upside versus the last price from Jun 2, 2026 of $0.9649 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.8900, optimistic scenario $2.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Neoenergia S.A (NRGIY)?
Neoenergia S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$53.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Neoenergia S.A (NRGIY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Neoenergia S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +16.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NRGIY use?
Our models discount Neoenergia S.A at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.28, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Neoenergia S.A that is +16.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Neoenergia S.A (NRGIY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Neoenergia S.A grew +9.7 % a year. The price currently implies +16.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Neoenergia S.A (NRGIY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Neoenergia S.A (+16.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Neoenergia S.A (NRGIY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 25.90 %: that much free cash flow Neoenergia S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Neoenergia S.A (NRGIY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Neoenergia S.A it is $2.13 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.9649. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Neoenergia S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NRGIY trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.9649, fair value $2.13, a gap of about +121% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NRGIY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.9649); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.13). For Neoenergia S.A the two are $1.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Neoenergia S.A worth?
The market values Neoenergia S.A at about $7.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.9649; our models calculate a fair value of $2.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NRGIY?
Our models span a range for Neoenergia S.A: cautious scenario $0.8900, base $2.13, optimistic $2.93 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.9649). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NRGIY?
Neoenergia S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.13 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Neoenergia S.A (NRGIY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Neoenergia S.A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 14.8%, debt of 1.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Neoenergia S.A?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Neoenergia S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.9649, calculated fair value $2.13 (+121%), Quality Score 48/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NRGIY calculated?
We run Neoenergia S.A through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Neoenergia S.A currently trades 55 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Neoenergia S.A (NRGIY)?
The latest price we hold is from Jun 2, 2026 and stands at $0.9649. Our model-based fair value is $2.13, about +121% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Neoenergia S.A right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($0.8900 to $2.93). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Neoenergia S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Neoenergia S.A (NRGIY)?
The market capitalisation of Neoenergia S.A is $7.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Neoenergia S.A (NRGIY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Neoenergia S.A is 0.74 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Neoenergia S.A (NRGIY)?
Earnings per share at Neoenergia S.A are $3.48 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Neoenergia S.A (NRGIY)?
The net margin of Neoenergia S.A is 10.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Neoenergia S.A (NRGIY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Neoenergia S.A is 14.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Neoenergia S.A (NRGIY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Neoenergia S.A is 9.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Neoenergia S.A (NRGIY)?
The operating margin of Neoenergia S.A is 22.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Neoenergia S.A (NRGIY)?
Revenue at Neoenergia S.A is growing +8.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Neoenergia S.A (NRGIY)?
Earnings per share at Neoenergia S.A are growing +28.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Neoenergia S.A (NRGIY) carry?
The net debt of Neoenergia S.A is R$49.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 31.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Neoenergia S.A in the live analysis
One click puts Neoenergia S.A on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026