NMDC Steel Limited (NSLNISP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of NMDC Steel Limited ₹8.63, price ₹40.95, upside -78.9%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
43‑month range ₹30.65 – ₹70.90 · fair‑value band ₹6.04 – ₹11.22 · the ₹40.95 price screens above the ₹8.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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NMDC Steel Limited manufactures and sells steel products in India. It offers hot rolled coils, sheets, and plates of welded steel pipe for pipeline transportation systems; structural and silicon steel; pig iron; and LPG grades of LPG cylinders manufacturing.
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NMDC Steel Limited manufactures and sells steel products in India. It offers hot rolled coils, sheets, and plates of welded steel pipe for pipeline transportation systems; structural and silicon steel; pig iron; and LPG grades of LPG cylinders manufacturing. The company also provides tube and pipe grade, boiler and pressure vessel grade, commercial forming grades, cold rolling grade, and HSLA Grade. It serves infrastructure and construction; automotive and mobility; energy, oil, and gas; and engineering and fabrication industries. NMDC Steel Limited was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Hyderabad, India.
Stock analysis
NMDC Steel Limited (NSLNISP) currently trades at ₹40.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹8.63, 78.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ₹72.62 per share, and 10 of the 24 models we run sit above the ₹40.95 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at ₹3.41, and 14 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹6.04 (bear) to ₹11.22 (bull), the price of ₹40.95 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
NMDC Steel Limited reported revenue of ₹136B in FY2026 versus ₹0 in FY2021. Reported net income was ₹587M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap ₹120B (≈ $1.2B) · P/E ratio 146.3 · P/S ratio 0.63 · EPS (TTM) ₹0.2800 · Net margin 0.4% · Return on equity 0.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −40.0% · Operating margin 4.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −79%, NSLNISP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹6.04Fair Value ₹8.63Bull ₹11.22
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹0.1419 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 406 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−78.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0.5% · Below median
Return on assets1.1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0.4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)14.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth36.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.22× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)146.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.99× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.96× · Pricier than median
P/FCF11.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA9.9× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 23
FUTURE (revenue growth)44· sector 24
PAST (return on equity)2· sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)89· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 51
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is NMDC Steel Limited (NSLNISP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹8.63 versus a price of ₹40.95, about −79% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NSLNISP?
Our model-based fair value for NMDC Steel Limited is ₹8.63 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹40.95.
What is the quality score of NSLNISP?
NMDC Steel Limited has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NMDC Steel Limited (NSLNISP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹8.63 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹6.04, optimistic scenario ₹11.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NMDC Steel Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹8.63, about −79% upside versus a price of ₹40.95 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹6.04, optimistic scenario ₹11.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NMDC Steel Limited (NSLNISP)?
NMDC Steel Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹139B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into NMDC Steel Limited (NSLNISP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NMDC Steel Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +10.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 2 years revenue grew +111.5 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NSLNISP use?
Our models discount NMDC Steel Limited at 12.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.69, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NMDC Steel Limited that is +10.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NMDC Steel Limited (NSLNISP) delivered so far?
Over the past 2 years revenue at NMDC Steel Limited grew +111.5 % a year. The price currently implies +10.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NMDC Steel Limited (NSLNISP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NMDC Steel Limited (+10.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NMDC Steel Limited (NSLNISP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.24 %: that much free cash flow NMDC Steel Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NMDC Steel Limited (NSLNISP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NMDC Steel Limited it is ₹8.63 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of ₹40.95. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NMDC Steel Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, NSLNISP trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹40.95, fair value ₹8.63, a gap of about −79% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NSLNISP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹40.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹8.63). For NMDC Steel Limited the two are ₹32.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NMDC Steel Limited worth?
The market values NMDC Steel Limited at about ₹120B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is ₹40.95; our models calculate a fair value of ₹8.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NSLNISP?
Our models span a range for NMDC Steel Limited: cautious scenario ₹6.04, base ₹8.63, optimistic ₹11.22 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price ₹40.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NSLNISP?
NMDC Steel Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 146.3 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹8.63 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 9.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of NMDC Steel Limited (NSLNISP)?
Balance-sheet figures for NMDC Steel Limited (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 0.5%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NSLNISP from its 52-week high?
NMDC Steel Limited trades at ₹40.95, about 22% below its 52-week high of ₹52.55 and 23% above the low of ₹33.20 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹8.63 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NMDC Steel Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NMDC Steel Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price ₹40.95, calculated fair value ₹8.63 (−79%), Quality Score 62/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NSLNISP calculated?
We run NMDC Steel Limited through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹8.63, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. NMDC Steel Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NMDC Steel Limited (NSLNISP)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹40.95. Our model-based fair value is ₹8.63, about −79% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NMDC Steel Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹11.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (₹6.04 to ₹11.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of NMDC Steel Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of NMDC Steel Limited (NSLNISP)?
The market capitalisation of NMDC Steel Limited is ₹120B (≈ $1.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NMDC Steel Limited (NSLNISP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NMDC Steel Limited is 0.63 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NMDC Steel Limited (NSLNISP)?
Earnings per share at NMDC Steel Limited are ₹0.2800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 146.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of NMDC Steel Limited (NSLNISP)?
The net margin of NMDC Steel Limited is 0.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NMDC Steel Limited (NSLNISP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NMDC Steel Limited is 0.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NMDC Steel Limited (NSLNISP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NMDC Steel Limited is −40.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NMDC Steel Limited (NSLNISP)?
The operating margin of NMDC Steel Limited is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NMDC Steel Limited (NSLNISP)?
Revenue at NMDC Steel Limited is growing +8.8% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NMDC Steel Limited (NSLNISP)?
Earnings per share at NMDC Steel Limited are growing +111% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does NMDC Steel Limited (NSLNISP) carry?
The net debt of NMDC Steel Limited is ₹38.1B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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