NTPC Green Energy Limited (NTPCGREEN) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · IN · Market cap ₹793B
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price −1.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 85% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹13.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (20 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
20‑month range ₹85.18 – ₹148.61 · the ₹91.33 price screens above the ₹13.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
NTPC Green Energy Limited (NTPCGREEN) currently trades at ₹91.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹13.56, implying the stock looks roughly 85.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, NTPC Green Energy Limited generated revenue of ₹28.6B at a net margin of 18.3%. Revenue grew 46.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.8%. Net debt stands at ₹316B. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -85%, NTPCGREEN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (₹27.97) versus Multiples (₹8.48). Highest evidence: Growth-Adj P/E (68).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
NTPC Green Energy Limited engages in the renewable energy generation business in India. The company has a portfolio of 17,277 MWs solar and wind projects. It also offers consultancy services, project management, and supervision services. The company was incorporated in 2022 and is based in New Delhi, India.
Full company description
NTPC Green Energy Limited engages in the renewable energy generation business in India. The company has a portfolio of 17,277 MWs solar and wind projects. It also offers consultancy services, project management, and supervision services. The company was incorporated in 2022 and is based in New Delhi, India. NTPC Green Energy Limited is a subsidiary of NTPC Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2023 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
NTPC Green Energy Limited reported revenue of ₹28.6B in FY2026 versus ₹1.6B in FY2023, a compound +158.9%/yr. Reported net income was ₹5.2B in FY2026, compounding +45.1%/yr from FY2023.
NTPCGREEN screens 85% overvalued. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →
Peer Group
Utilities - Renewable · 213 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Yangtze Power Co 600900 | ¥27.99 | ¥25.13 | -10% |
| Ørsted A/S ORSTED | kr 149.70 | kr 31.40 | -79% |
| Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 | ¥9.81 | ¥5.57 | -43% |
| Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN | ₹1,537 | ₹170.50 | -89% |
| AXIA Energia SA AXIAP | $10.74 | $9.65 | -10% |
| VERBUND AG OEWA | €58.65 | €66.19 | +13% |
| BEP BEP | $32.33 | $73.35 | +127% |
| BEPUN BEPUN | C$44.56 | C$10.15 | -77% |
| Fortum Oyj FORTUM | €19.89 | €13.90 | -30% |
| China Longyuan Power Group 001289 | ¥16.21 | ¥8.23 | -49% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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