Novartis AG (NVSEF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Novartis AG $145, price $134, upside +8.2%, quality 85 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Novartis AG
NVSEF · USQuality WatchlistA strong company, but the current price is close to Fair Value.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $51.85 – $166.07 · fair‑value band $105.50 – $184.77 · the $134.20 price screens below the $145.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
Company profile
Novartis AG researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, markets, and sells pharmaceutical medicines in Switzerland and internationally.
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Novartis AG researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, markets, and sells pharmaceutical medicines in Switzerland and internationally. The company offers Entresto, an angiotensin receptorneprilysin inhibitor to treat symptomatic chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF); Cosentyx to treat plaque psoriasis, pso riatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and nonradiographic axial spondy loarthritis; Kisqali, a selective oral cyclin dependent inhibitor of kinases 4 and 6 (CDK4/6); Promacta/Revolade to treat immune thrombocytopenia (ITP), thrombocytopenia, and patients with severe aplastic anemia (SAA); Tafinlar+Mekinist, an oral combination therapy to treat patients with certain types of cancers; and Jakavi for the treatment of myelofibrosis, polycythemia vera, and acute or chronic graftversushost disease (GvHD). It also provides Tasigna to treat philadelphia chromosomepositive chronic myeloid leukemia in the chronic and/or accelerated phase; Xolair for the treatment of allergic asthma and nasal polyps or severe chronic rhinosi nusitis with nasal polyps; Ilaris to treat fever syndromes, Still's disease, and acute gouty arthritis; Pluvicto to treat prostatespecific membrane anti genpositive metastatic castrationresistant prostate cancer; Sandostatin SC and Sandostatin LAR to treat acromegaly carcinoid tumors and other types of functional gastro intestinal and pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors; Zolgensma for the treatment of genetic root cause of spinal muscular atrophy; Lucentis; Leqvio to reduce LDL cholesterol; Lutathera; Scemblix; and Fabhalta. The company focuses on therapeutic areas, such as cardiovascular, renal and metabolic, immunology, neuroscience, oncology, and hematology. It has a license and collaboration agreement with Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize Leqvio (inclisiran), a therapy to reduce LDL cholesterol. Novartis AG was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Novartis AG (NVSEF) currently trades at $134.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $145.14, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.5%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $147.68 per share, and 10 of the 24 models we run sit above the $134.20 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $16.19, and 14 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $105.50 (bear) to $184.77 (bull), the price of $134.20 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 85/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Novartis AG reported revenue of $57.1B in FY2025 versus $52.9B in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was $14.6B in FY2025, compounding −11.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $262B · P/E ratio 19.3 · P/S ratio 4.94 · EPS (TTM) $6.97 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 25.6% · Return on equity 34.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 8%, NVSEF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
All 24 models by family
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 80 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
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Recent news
- Novartis (NVS) and Bristol Myers (BMY) Pause Autoimmune CAR-T Studies. Can Their Programs Recover?
- A Top Novartis (NVS) Shareholder Says ‘The Party is Over’ for its Dealmaking Team
- Novartis (SWX:NOVN) Lands Global Radioligand Therapy License To Deepen Cancer Pipeline
- Failure of Novartis’ Pelacarsen Could Reshape the Lp(a) Race for CRISPR and Ionis
Compare Novartis AG with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - General · 73 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Health Care sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Lilly and Company LLY | $1,157 | $749.08 | −35% |
| Johnson & Johnson, JNJ | $264.74 | $168.85 | −36% |
| AbbVie Inc ABBV | $261.59 | $259.62 | −1% |
| Roche Holding RO | CHF 375.20 | CHF 326.56 | −13% |
| Merck & Co MRK | $143.81 | $129.26 | −10% |
| Amgen Inc AMGN | $421.51 | $463.66 | +10% |
| Gilead Sciences, Inc GILD | $149.05 | $198.77 | +33% |
| Pfizer Inc PFE | $28.12 | $24.87 | −12% |
| Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY | $62.40 | $75.96 | +22% |
| Sanofi SNY | $41.23 | $70.59 | +71% |
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Key figures of Novartis AG
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