NatWest Group PLC (NWG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of NatWest Group PLC stock £6.21, price £6.44, upside -3.6%, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?No
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £1.76 – £7.23 · fair‑value band £5.17 – £8.42 · the £6.44 price screens above the £6.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
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NatWest Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking and financial products and services in the United Kingdom and internationally. It operates through the Retail Banking, Private Banking, and Commercial & Institutional segments.
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The Retail Banking segment offers a range of banking products and related financial services, such as current accounts, mortgages, personal unsecured lending, and personal deposits, as well as mobile and online banking services.
Its Private Banking segment provides banking, lending, and wealth management products for high-net-worth individuals and their business interests.
The Commercial & Institutional segment consists of customer businesses under business banking, commercial mid-market, and corporates and institutions; and offers banking operations services in the Channel Islands, Isle of Man, Gibraltar, and Luxembourg, as well as products and solutions for businesses comprising start-ups, corporates, and large institutions.
The company was formerly known as The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc and changed its name to NatWest Group plc in July 2020. NatWest Group plc was founded in 1727 and is headquartered in Edinburgh, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
NatWest Group PLC (NWG) currently trades at £6.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £6.21, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.7%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of £6.25 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the £6.44 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £2.99, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £5.17 (bear) to £8.42 (bull), the price of £6.44 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
NatWest Group PLC reported revenue of £29.8B in FY2025 versus £11.7B in FY2021, a compound +26.2%/yr. Reported net income was £5.8B in FY2025, compounding +15.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap £51.9B Large · P/E ratio 8.7 · P/S ratio 3.09 · EPS (TTM) £0.7400 · Dividend yield 5.4% · Net margin 37.7% · Return on equity 14.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −4%, NWG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£5.17Fair Value £6.21Bull£8.42
Price £6.44 · Upside -3.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.3205 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+108.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.4% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+24.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2% → 26%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The regional bank shows limited evidence of a durable moat and scores near average overall, while large negative operating and free cash flows stand out as its main weakness.
Main risk: Digital challengers such as Revolut, Monzo and Starling could capture more primary accounts and deposits from NatWest in retail and SME banking, reducing its funding base and net interest income.
Bull case: By scaling its agentic AI tools like Cora and personalised insights faster than rivals, NatWest could improve customer retention and operational efficiency, defending its UK-focused model against challengers.
Bear case: If challengers accelerate deposit and primary-account gains while regulatory costs mount, NatWest could see sustained pressure on revenues and margins in its core UK retail and commercial segments.
NatWest is exiting primary dealing in US and European government bonds and trimming related roles. The shift keeps the focus tightly on UK retail, commercial and institutional banking. Will this streamlining lift efficiency and capital returns more than it reduces trading income opportunities?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1061 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−3.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets0.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)37.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)53.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)14.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.04× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NatWest Group PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NWG.LSE
Frequently asked questions
Is NatWest Group PLC (NWG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £6.21 versus a price of £6.44, about −4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NWG?
Our model-based fair value for NatWest Group PLC is £6.21 (as of Oct 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £6.44.
What is the quality score of NWG?
NatWest Group PLC has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NatWest Group PLC (NWG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £6.21 (as of Oct 26, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario £5.17, optimistic scenario £8.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NatWest Group PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £6.21, about −4% upside versus a price of £6.44 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario £5.17, optimistic scenario £8.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NatWest Group PLC (NWG)?
NatWest Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £16.8B (latest available figure, as of Oct 26, 2026).
Does NatWest Group PLC pay a dividend?
NatWest Group PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 5.43% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 26, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of NatWest Group PLC (NWG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NatWest Group PLC it is £6.21 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026), against a price of £6.44. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NatWest Group PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 26, 2026, NWG trades above its calculated fair value: price £6.44, fair value £6.21, a gap of about −4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NWG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£6.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£6.21). For NatWest Group PLC the two are £0.2300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NatWest Group PLC worth?
The market values NatWest Group PLC at about £51.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 26, 2026). Per share that is £6.44; our models calculate a fair value of £6.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NWG?
Our models span a range for NatWest Group PLC: cautious scenario £5.17, base £6.21, optimistic £8.42 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026, price £6.44). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NWG?
NatWest Group PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.7 (as of Oct 26, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £6.21 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 1.2, P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 1.2.
What is the PEG ratio of NWG?
The PEG ratio of NatWest Group PLC is 1.47 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 26, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of NatWest Group PLC (NWG)?
Balance-sheet figures for NatWest Group PLC (as of Oct 26, 2026): return on equity 14.8%, debt of 1.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NWG from its 52-week high?
NatWest Group PLC trades at £6.44, about 11% below its 52-week high of £7.23 and 24% above the low of £5.20 (as of Oct 26, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £6.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NatWest Group PLC?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NatWest Group PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 26, 2026: price £6.44, calculated fair value £6.21 (−4%), Quality Score 50/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NWG calculated?
We run NatWest Group PLC through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £6.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. NatWest Group PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NatWest Group PLC (NWG)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was £6.44. Our model-based fair value is £6.21, about −4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NatWest Group PLC right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of NatWest Group PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of NatWest Group PLC (NWG)?
The market capitalisation of NatWest Group PLC is £51.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NatWest Group PLC (NWG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NatWest Group PLC is 3.09 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NatWest Group PLC (NWG)?
Earnings per share at NatWest Group PLC are £0.7400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NatWest Group PLC (NWG)?
The dividend yield of NatWest Group PLC is 5.4% (payout 47.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NatWest Group PLC (NWG)?
The net margin of NatWest Group PLC is 37.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NatWest Group PLC (NWG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NatWest Group PLC is 14.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NatWest Group PLC (NWG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NatWest Group PLC is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NatWest Group PLC (NWG)?
The operating margin of NatWest Group PLC is 53.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NatWest Group PLC (NWG)?
Revenue at NatWest Group PLC is growing +14.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +32.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NatWest Group PLC (NWG)?
Earnings per share at NatWest Group PLC are growing +30.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does NatWest Group PLC (NWG) generate?
The free cash flow of NatWest Group PLC is −£17.3B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does NatWest Group PLC (NWG) hold?
NatWest Group PLC holds more cash than debt, £13.5B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 26, 2026