Nextdoor Holdings, Inc (NXDR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Nextdoor Holdings, Inc $0.39, price $2.38, upside -83.6%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $0.3900 · Strongly overvalued (−84%)
!Quality 63/100
!Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +15.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -16.5% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
!Trails peers(2/10)
!Narrow moat13/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
58‑month range $1.36 – $13.50 · fair‑value band $0.3000 – $0.4900 · the $2.38 price screens above the $0.3900 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. operates a neighborhood network that connects neighbors, businesses, and public agencies in the United States and internationally. The company provides local news, events, relevant discussions, and exchange goods and services, as well as discovers and supports local businesses. It operates in 11 countries.
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Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. operates a neighborhood network that connects neighbors, businesses, and public agencies in the United States and internationally. The company provides local news, events, relevant discussions, and exchange goods and services, as well as discovers and supports local businesses. It operates in 11 countries. The company is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Stock analysis
Nextdoor Holdings, Inc (NXDR) currently trades at $2.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.3900, implying the stock looks roughly 510.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $0.7500 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $2.38 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $0.3600, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.3000 (bear) to $0.4900 (bull), the price of $2.38 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Nextdoor Holdings, Inc reported revenue of $258M in FY2025 versus $192M in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$54.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $919M · P/S ratio 3.16 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1100 · Net margin −21.0% · Return on equity −10.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −19.3% · Operating margin −24.9% · Revenue (TTM) $265M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −84%, NXDR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.3000Fair Value $0.3900Bull $0.4900
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.9%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−62.2% (2020) → −27.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+46.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +42.9% a year for the price and +6.6% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Content & Information · 146 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside−84% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−16% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−25% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.24× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)3.64× · Pricier than median
P/FCF163.9× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 44
FUTURE (revenue growth)69· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 38
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Nextdoor Holdings, Inc (NXDR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.3900 versus a price of $2.38, about −84% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NXDR?
Our model-based fair value for Nextdoor Holdings, Inc is $0.3900 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.38.
What is the quality score of NXDR?
Nextdoor Holdings, Inc has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nextdoor Holdings, Inc (NXDR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.3900 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.3000, optimistic scenario $0.4900. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nextdoor Holdings, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.3900, about −84% upside versus a price of $2.38 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.3000, optimistic scenario $0.4900. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nextdoor Holdings, Inc (NXDR)?
Nextdoor Holdings, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $265M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nextdoor Holdings, Inc (NXDR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nextdoor Holdings, Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +46.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NXDR use?
Our models discount Nextdoor Holdings, Inc at 12.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.39, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nextdoor Holdings, Inc that is +46.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nextdoor Holdings, Inc (NXDR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nextdoor Holdings, Inc grew +15.9 % a year. The price currently implies +46.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nextdoor Holdings, Inc (NXDR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nextdoor Holdings, Inc (+46.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nextdoor Holdings, Inc (NXDR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.64 %: that much free cash flow Nextdoor Holdings, Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nextdoor Holdings, Inc (NXDR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nextdoor Holdings, Inc it is $0.3900 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $2.38. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nextdoor Holdings, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NXDR trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.38, fair value $0.3900, a gap of about −84% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NXDR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.38); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.3900). For Nextdoor Holdings, Inc the two are $1.99 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nextdoor Holdings, Inc worth?
The market values Nextdoor Holdings, Inc at about $919M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $2.38; our models calculate a fair value of $0.3900 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NXDR?
Our models span a range for Nextdoor Holdings, Inc: cautious scenario $0.3000, base $0.3900, optimistic $0.4900 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $2.38). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nextdoor Holdings, Inc (NXDR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nextdoor Holdings, Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −10.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NXDR from its 52-week high?
Nextdoor Holdings, Inc trades at $2.38, about 14% below its 52-week high of $2.77 and 75% above the low of $1.36 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.3900 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nextdoor Holdings, Inc?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Alphabet Inc, Meta Platforms, Inc, Tencent Holdings, Spotify Technology S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nextdoor Holdings, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $2.38, calculated fair value $0.3900 (−84%), Quality Score 63/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NXDR calculated?
We run Nextdoor Holdings, Inc through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.3900, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Nextdoor Holdings, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nextdoor Holdings, Inc (NXDR)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $2.38. Our model-based fair value is $0.3900, about −84% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nextdoor Holdings, Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.4900). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Nextdoor Holdings, Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Nextdoor Holdings, Inc (NXDR)?
The market capitalisation of Nextdoor Holdings, Inc is $919M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nextdoor Holdings, Inc (NXDR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nextdoor Holdings, Inc is 3.16 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nextdoor Holdings, Inc (NXDR)?
Earnings per share at Nextdoor Holdings, Inc are $−0.1100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Nextdoor Holdings, Inc (NXDR)?
The net margin of Nextdoor Holdings, Inc is −21.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nextdoor Holdings, Inc (NXDR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nextdoor Holdings, Inc is −10.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nextdoor Holdings, Inc (NXDR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nextdoor Holdings, Inc is −19.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nextdoor Holdings, Inc (NXDR)?
The operating margin of Nextdoor Holdings, Inc is −24.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nextdoor Holdings, Inc (NXDR)?
Revenue at Nextdoor Holdings, Inc is growing +13.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Nextdoor Holdings, Inc (NXDR) hold?
Nextdoor Holdings, Inc holds more cash than debt, $7.7M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026