Nextdoor Holdings (NXDR) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $839M
Nextdoor Holdings
NXDR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 5, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 35 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 5, 2026, revised from $0.3300 to $0.2300 (−30.3%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +12.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 91% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.2900). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
57‑month range $1.36 – $13.50 · fair‑value band $0.1700 – $0.2900 · the $2.55 price screens above the $0.2300 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.
Analysis
Nextdoor Holdings (NXDR) currently trades at $2.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.2300, implying the stock looks roughly 91.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Nextdoor Holdings generated revenue of $265M at a net margin of -16.5%. Revenue grew 13.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -10.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $7.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.1700 (bear case) to $0.2900 (bull case); at $2.55, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 92% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -91%, NXDR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($0.7500) versus Multiples ($0.3600). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. operates a neighborhood network that connects neighbors, businesses, and public agencies in the United States and internationally. The company provides local news, events, relevant discussions, and exchange goods and services, as well as discovers and supports local businesses. It operates in 11 countries.
Full company description
Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. operates a neighborhood network that connects neighbors, businesses, and public agencies in the United States and internationally. The company provides local news, events, relevant discussions, and exchange goods and services, as well as discovers and supports local businesses. It operates in 11 countries. The company is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nextdoor Holdings reported revenue of $258M in FY2025 versus $192M in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$54.2M in FY2025.
NXDR screens 91% overvalued. Compare with Alphabet Inc →
Peer Group
Internet Content & Information · 151 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Content & Information stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet Inc GOOGL | $354.46 | $145.14 | -59% |
| Meta Platforms, Inc META | $669.21 | $534.91 | -20% |
| Tencent Holdings 0700 | HK$460.20 | HK$467.50 | +2% |
| Spotify Technology S.A SPOT | $485.38 | $209.56 | -57% |
| Baidu, Inc BIDU | $113.30 | $451.51 | +299% |
| Reddit, Inc RDDT | $195.34 | $39.59 | -80% |
| Kuaishou Technology, an investment holding company, 1024 | HK$44.70 | HK$101.03 | +126% |
| NAVER Corporation 035420 | 191,300 KRW | 231,585 KRW | +21% |
| Tencent Music Entertainment Group 1698 | HK$34.74 | HK$65.78 | +89% |
| REA Group REA | A$149.14 | A$88.53 | -41% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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