NZME Ltd (NZM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of NZME Ltd A$1.23, price A$0.85, upside +45.6%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.5129 – A$1.14 · fair‑value band A$0.7900 – A$1.54 · the A$0.8450 price screens below the A$1.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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NZME Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the integrated media and entertainment business in New Zealand. It operates through three segments: Audio, Publishing, and OneRoof.
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NZME Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the integrated media and entertainment business in New Zealand. It operates through three segments: Audio, Publishing, and OneRoof. The company operates terrestrial radio stations, digital iHeartRadio, podcasts, and radio brand websites; print publications and digital news websites, including nzherald.co.nz. and BusinessDesk; oneroof.co.nz website; and real estate print publications. It also provides event services. The company was formerly known as Wilson & Horton Limited. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Auckland, New Zealand.
Stock analysis
NZME Ltd (NZM) currently trades at A$0.8450, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.23, implying the stock looks roughly 31.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$1.68 per share, and 17 of the 22 models we run sit above the A$0.8450 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.2800, and 5 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.7900 (bear) to A$1.54 (bull), the price of A$0.8450 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
NZME Ltd reported revenue of 341M NZD in FY2025 versus 349M NZD in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was 13.1M NZD in FY2025, compounding −21.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$160M (≈ $113M) · P/E ratio 14.1 · P/S ratio 0.54 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0600 · Dividend yield 10.7% · Net margin 3.8% · Return on equity 13.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at 46%, NZM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.7900Fair Value A$1.23Bull A$1.54
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.3% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+0.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)10.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−10.5% vs −7.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2018 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in NZD, New Zealand: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Entertainment · 244 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+45.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)3.8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)11.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)10.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.25× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)14.1× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.03× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NZME Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NZM
Frequently asked questions
Is NZME Ltd (NZM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.23 versus a price of A$0.8450, about +46% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NZM?
Our model-based fair value for NZME Ltd is A$1.23 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.8450.
What is the quality score of NZM?
NZME Ltd has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NZME Ltd (NZM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$1.23 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.7900, optimistic scenario A$1.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NZME Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$1.23, about +46% upside versus a price of A$0.8450 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.7900, optimistic scenario A$1.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NZME Ltd (NZM)?
NZME Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 341M NZD (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does NZME Ltd pay a dividend?
NZME Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.65% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into NZME Ltd (NZM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NZME Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -6.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.2 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NZM use?
Our models discount NZME Ltd at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NZME Ltd that is -6.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NZME Ltd (NZM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NZME Ltd grew +1.2 % a year. The price currently implies -6.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NZME Ltd (NZM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NZME Ltd (-6.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NZME Ltd (NZM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.39 %: that much free cash flow NZME Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NZME Ltd (NZM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NZME Ltd it is A$1.23 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of A$0.8450. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NZME Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, NZM trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.8450, fair value A$1.23, a gap of about +46% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NZM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.8450); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.23). For NZME Ltd the two are A$0.3850 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NZME Ltd worth?
The market values NZME Ltd at about A$160M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is A$0.8450; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NZM?
Our models span a range for NZME Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.7900, base A$1.23, optimistic A$1.54 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price A$0.8450). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NZM?
NZME Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.1 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$1.23 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 6.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of NZME Ltd (NZM)?
Balance-sheet figures for NZME Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 13.2%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NZM from its 52-week high?
NZME Ltd trades at A$0.8450, about 16% below its 52-week high of A$1.01 and 2% above the low of A$0.8300 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NZME Ltd?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Netflix, Inc, The Walt Disney Company, Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc, Live Nation Entertainment, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NZME Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price A$0.8450, calculated fair value A$1.23 (+46%), Quality Score 67/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NZM calculated?
We run NZME Ltd through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$1.23, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. NZME Ltd currently trades 31 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NZME Ltd (NZM)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was A$0.8450. Our model-based fair value is A$1.23, about +46% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NZME Ltd right now?
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (A$0.7900 to A$1.54) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of NZME Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of NZME Ltd (NZM)?
The market capitalisation of NZME Ltd is A$160M (≈ $113M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NZME Ltd (NZM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NZME Ltd is 0.54 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NZME Ltd (NZM)?
Earnings per share at NZME Ltd are A$0.0600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NZME Ltd (NZM)?
The dividend yield of NZME Ltd is 10.7% (payout 150%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NZME Ltd (NZM)?
The net margin of NZME Ltd is 3.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NZME Ltd (NZM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NZME Ltd is 13.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NZME Ltd (NZM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NZME Ltd is 14.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NZME Ltd (NZM)?
The operating margin of NZME Ltd is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NZME Ltd (NZM)?
Revenue at NZME Ltd is growing +0.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NZME Ltd (NZM)?
Earnings per share at NZME Ltd are growing −22.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does NZME Ltd (NZM) carry?
The net debt of NZME Ltd is 144M NZD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026