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Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd (NZP) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Jul 31, 2026: fair value of Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd C$0.03, price C$0.03, upside +10.0%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · CA · ISIN CA1621631094

CR Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd logo Thin data Jul 31, 2026

Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd

NZP · V

Low PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.

·Fair value C$0.0330 · Fairly valued (+10.0%)
!Quality 37/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −38.2 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/7)
!Narrow moat 9/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 13 out of 100
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

C$0.4200 C$0.0300 Fair Value C$0.0330 Apr 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 31, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range C$0.0300 – C$0.4200 · fair‑value band C$0.0300 – C$0.0390 · the C$0.0300 price screens below the C$0.0330 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 31, 2026.

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Company profile

Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited operates as a junior mineral development company in New Zealand, French Polynesia, and Australia.

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Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited operates as a junior mineral development company in New Zealand, French Polynesia, and Australia. The company focuses on the development and exploitation of the Chatham Rise rock phosphate deposit, which comprises a mining permit covering an area of 820 square kilometers located in New Zealand; and Makatea phosphate project that covers an area of 10.36 square kilometers located on Makatea Island, French Polynesia. Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited was founded in 2004 and is based in Wellington, New Zealand.

Stock analysis

Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd (NZP) currently trades at C$0.0300, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.0330, implying the stock looks roughly 9.1% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: C$0.0300 (bear) to C$0.0390 (bull), the price of C$0.0300 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd reported revenue of C$0 in FY2025 versus C$5.2K in FY2021. Reported net income was −C$1.2M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap C$4.6M (≈ $3.3M) · P/S ratio 52.0 · EPS (TTM) C$−0.0100 · Return on equity −14.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −16.7% · Revenue (TTM) C$88.7K · Free cash flow −C$1.3M · Net cash C$52.4K.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 10%, NZP screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear C$0.0300 Fair Value C$0.0330 Bull C$0.0390
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) C$0.0300 C$0.0400 C$0.0600 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) C$0.0300 C$0.0400 C$0.0600 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 70
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 31
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 50
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 13
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−92.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−57.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−38.2%
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−28.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−25,682.4% (2018) → −371,230.6% (2023)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Compare Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 448 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 37 · Below median
Fair Value upside −15.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −8.9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 0.0% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.50× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 36.67× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)13 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 37
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 31

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,116,000 KRW 646,063 KRW −42%
Boliden AB BOL kr 521.00 kr 464.45 −11%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥35.19 ¥38.71 +10%
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd IVN C$12.06 C$4.46 −63%
Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 ¥46.90 ¥23.62 −50%
Vedanta Limited VEDL ₹266.35 ₹655.92 +146%

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Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd · Fair Value
C$0.0330 +9%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NZP

Frequently asked questions

Is Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd (NZP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 31, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$0.0330 versus the last price from Jul 31, 2026 of C$0.0300, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NZP?
Our model-based fair value for Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd is C$0.0330 (as of Jul 31, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jul 31, 2026): C$0.0300.
What is the quality score of NZP?
Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd (NZP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$0.0330 (as of Jul 31, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$0.0300, optimistic scenario C$0.0390. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$0.0330, about +10% upside versus the last price from Jul 31, 2026 of C$0.0300 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$0.0300, optimistic scenario C$0.0390. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd (NZP)?
Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$88.7K (latest available figure, as of Jul 31, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd (NZP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd it is C$0.0330 per share (as of Jul 31, 2026), against a price of C$0.0300. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Jul 31, 2026, NZP trades below its calculated fair value: price C$0.0300, fair value C$0.0330, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NZP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$0.0300); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$0.0330). For Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd the two are C$0.0030 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd worth?
The market values Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd at about C$4.6M (market capitalisation, as of Jul 31, 2026). Per share that is C$0.0300; our models calculate a fair value of C$0.0330 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NZP?
Our models span a range for Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd: cautious scenario C$0.0300, base C$0.0330, optimistic C$0.0390 per share (as of Jul 31, 2026, price C$0.0300). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd (NZP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd (as of Jul 31, 2026): return on equity −14.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NZP from its 52-week high?
Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd trades at C$0.0300, about 54% below its 52-week high of C$0.0650 and at the low of C$0.0300 (as of Jul 31, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$0.0330 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Jul 31, 2026: price C$0.0300, calculated fair value C$0.0330 (+10%), Quality Score 37/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NZP calculated?
We run Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$0.0330, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd (NZP)?
The latest price we hold is from Jul 31, 2026 and stands at C$0.0300. Our model-based fair value is C$0.0330, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Key figures of Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd (NZP)?
The market capitalisation of Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd is C$4.6M (≈ $3.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd (NZP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd is 52.0 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd (NZP)?
Earnings per share at Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd are C$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd (NZP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd is −14.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd (NZP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd is −16.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd (NZP) generate?
The free cash flow of Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd is −C$1.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd (NZP) hold?
Chatham Rock Phosphate Ltd holds more cash than debt, C$52.4K net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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