Obsidian Energy Ltd (OBE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Obsidian Energy Ltd $5.74, price $11.21, upside -48.8%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.21 – $14.46 · fair‑value band $4.30 – $7.17 · the $11.21 price screens above the $5.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Obsidian Energy Ltd. engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas in Western Canada. Its portfolio of properties includes unitized and non-unitized light oil, heavy oil, and natural gas production. The company was formerly known as Penn West Petroleum Ltd. and changed its name to Obsidian Energy Ltd. in June 2017.
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Obsidian Energy Ltd. engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas in Western Canada. Its portfolio of properties includes unitized and non-unitized light oil, heavy oil, and natural gas production. The company was formerly known as Penn West Petroleum Ltd. and changed its name to Obsidian Energy Ltd. in June 2017. Obsidian Energy Ltd. is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Obsidian Energy Ltd (OBE) currently trades at $11.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.74, implying the stock looks roughly 95.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $13.95 per share, and 3 of the 12 models we run sit above the $11.21 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $2.89, and 9 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $4.30 (bear) to $7.17 (bull), the price of $11.21 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Obsidian Energy Ltd reported revenue of C$614M in FY2025 versus C$449M in FY2021, a compound +8.1%/yr. Reported net income was C$35.2M in FY2025, compounding −46.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $805M · P/E ratio 910.8 · P/S ratio 52.2 · EPS (TTM) $0.0100 · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity 0.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.6% · Operating margin −13.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 103% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −49%, OBE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.30Fair Value $5.74Bull $7.17
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0073 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−26.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −6.4% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−42.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−42.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.43% → 9%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 13.0%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 306 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Above median
Fair Value upside−49% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−14% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−26% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.13× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)910.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.58× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.64× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA4.2× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 10
HEALTH (low debt)94· sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 73
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Obsidian Energy Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OBE
Frequently asked questions
Is Obsidian Energy Ltd (OBE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.74 versus a price of $11.21, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OBE?
Our model-based fair value for Obsidian Energy Ltd is $5.74 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.21.
What is the quality score of OBE?
Obsidian Energy Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Obsidian Energy Ltd (OBE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.74 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.30, optimistic scenario $7.17. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Obsidian Energy Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.74, about −49% upside versus a price of $11.21 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.30, optimistic scenario $7.17. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Obsidian Energy Ltd (OBE)?
Obsidian Energy Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $492M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Obsidian Energy Ltd (OBE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Obsidian Energy Ltd it is $5.74 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $11.21. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Obsidian Energy Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, OBE trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.21, fair value $5.74, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OBE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.21); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.74). For Obsidian Energy Ltd the two are $5.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Obsidian Energy Ltd worth?
The market values Obsidian Energy Ltd at about $805M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $11.21; our models calculate a fair value of $5.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OBE?
Our models span a range for Obsidian Energy Ltd: cautious scenario $4.30, base $5.74, optimistic $7.17 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $11.21). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Obsidian Energy Ltd (OBE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Obsidian Energy Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 0.1%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OBE from its 52-week high?
Obsidian Energy Ltd trades at $11.21, about 22% below its 52-week high of $14.46 and 103% above the low of $5.52 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Obsidian Energy Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Obsidian Energy Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $11.21, calculated fair value $5.74 (−49%), Quality Score 50/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OBE calculated?
We run Obsidian Energy Ltd through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.74, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Obsidian Energy Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Obsidian Energy Ltd (OBE)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $11.21. Our model-based fair value is $5.74, about −49% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Obsidian Energy Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.17). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Obsidian Energy Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Obsidian Energy Ltd (OBE)?
The market capitalisation of Obsidian Energy Ltd is $805M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Obsidian Energy Ltd (OBE)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Obsidian Energy Ltd is 910.8 (as of Jun 22, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Obsidian Energy Ltd (OBE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Obsidian Energy Ltd is 52.2 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Obsidian Energy Ltd (OBE)?
Earnings per share at Obsidian Energy Ltd are $0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 910.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Obsidian Energy Ltd (OBE)?
The net margin of Obsidian Energy Ltd is 5.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Obsidian Energy Ltd (OBE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Obsidian Energy Ltd is 0.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Obsidian Energy Ltd (OBE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Obsidian Energy Ltd is 9.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Obsidian Energy Ltd (OBE)?
The operating margin of Obsidian Energy Ltd is −13.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Obsidian Energy Ltd (OBE)?
Revenue at Obsidian Energy Ltd is growing −26.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Obsidian Energy Ltd (OBE)?
Earnings per share at Obsidian Energy Ltd are growing −42.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Obsidian Energy Ltd (OBE) generate?
The free cash flow of Obsidian Energy Ltd is −$59.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Obsidian Energy Ltd (OBE) carry?
The net debt of Obsidian Energy Ltd is $200M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 23, 2026