Oceania Healthcare Limited (OCA) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · AU · Market cap A$448M
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from A$0.9700 to A$0.5600 (−42.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +8.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 16% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.5600). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.4750 – A$1.42 · fair‑value band A$0.4100 – A$0.5600 · the A$0.6700 price screens above the A$0.5600 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Oceania Healthcare Limited (OCA) currently trades at A$0.6700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.5600, implying the stock looks roughly 16.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$269M. Revenue grew 7.6% year over year. Net debt stands at A$514M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.4100 (bear case) to A$0.5600 (bull case); at A$0.6700, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -16%, OCA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (A$1.10) versus Dividend Discount (A$0.1000). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Oceania Healthcare Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates retirement villages and care centres in New Zealand. The company operates through Care Operations, Village Operations, and Others segments.
Full company description
Oceania Healthcare Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates retirement villages and care centres in New Zealand. The company operates through Care Operations, Village Operations, and Others segments. It provides traditional care beds and care suites; independent living and rental properties; and rest home, hospital, and specialist dementia services. The company also offers accommodation, and care and related services to aged care residents, including meals and care packages to independent living residents; and accommodation and related services to independent residents in the retirement villages. In addition, it is involved in the provision of support services and training activities. The company was formerly known as Retirement Care (NZ) Limited and changed its name to Oceania Healthcare Limited in September 2014. Oceania Healthcare Limited was incorporated in 2005 and is based in Auckland, New Zealand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Oceania Healthcare Limited reported revenue of A$269M in FY2026 versus A$231M in FY2022, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was A$119K in FY2026, compounding −79.0%/yr from FY2022.
OCA screens 16% overvalued. Compare with HCA Healthcare, Inc →
Peer Group
Medical Care Facilities · 261 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| HCA Healthcare, Inc HCA | $378.85 | $554.93 | +46% |
| Fresenius SE FRE | €41.73 | €32.15 | -23% |
| Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013 | 235.00 SAR | 112.37 SAR | -52% |
| IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company, Q0F | 2.58 SGD | 1.44 SGD | -44% |
| Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC | $194.91 | $338.05 | +73% |
| Rede D'Or São Luiz S.A RDOR3 | R$36.01 | R$47.31 | +31% |
| DaVita Inc DVA | $231.61 | $255.97 | +11% |
| Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP | ₹8,955 | ₹2,955 | -67% |
| Fresenius Medical Care AG FMS | $24.68 | $45.60 | +85% |
| Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015 | ¥8.68 | ¥7.67 | -12% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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