Oceania Healthcare Ltd (OCA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Oceania Healthcare Ltd A$0.69, price A$0.60, upside +16.0%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.4750 – A$1.42 · fair‑value band A$0.5300 – A$0.8300 · the A$0.5950 price screens below the A$0.6900 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Oceania Healthcare Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates retirement villages and care centres in New Zealand. The company operates through Care Operations, Village Operations, and Others segments.
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Oceania Healthcare Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates retirement villages and care centres in New Zealand. The company operates through Care Operations, Village Operations, and Others segments. It provides traditional care beds and care suites; independent living and rental properties; and rest home, hospital, and specialist dementia services. The company also offers accommodation, and care and related services to aged care residents, including meals and care packages to independent living residents; and accommodation and related services to independent residents in the retirement villages. In addition, it is involved in the provision of support services and training activities. The company was formerly known as Retirement Care (NZ) Limited and changed its name to Oceania Healthcare Limited in September 2014. Oceania Healthcare Limited was incorporated in 2005 and is based in Auckland, New Zealand.
Stock analysis
Oceania Healthcare Ltd (OCA) currently trades at A$0.5950, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.6900, implying the stock looks roughly 13.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of A$1.10 per share, and 9 of the 12 models we run sit above the A$0.5950 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at A$0.4200, and 3 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.5300 (bear) to A$0.8300 (bull), the price of A$0.5950 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Oceania Healthcare Ltd reported revenue of 269M NZD in FY2026 versus 231M NZD in FY2022, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was 119K NZD in FY2026, compounding −79.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$431M (≈ $302M) · P/S ratio 1.67 · Net margin 0.0% · Return on equity 0.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3% · Operating margin −6.0% · Revenue (TTM) 269M NZD · Revenue growth (YoY) +7.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 35% fair-value upside, at 16%, OCA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.5300Fair Value A$0.6900Bull A$0.8300
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.68/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.5% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−73.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−73.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−74% vs −49%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−11% → −7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in NZD, New Zealand: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.2% a year for the price and +3.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 258 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside+16% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.44× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
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Is Oceania Healthcare Ltd (OCA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.6900 versus a price of A$0.5950, about +16% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of OCA?
Our model-based fair value for Oceania Healthcare Ltd is A$0.6900 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.5950.
What is the quality score of OCA?
Oceania Healthcare Ltd has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Oceania Healthcare Ltd (OCA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.6900 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.5300, optimistic scenario A$0.8300. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Oceania Healthcare Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.6900, about +16% upside versus a price of A$0.5950 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.5300, optimistic scenario A$0.8300. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Oceania Healthcare Ltd (OCA)?
Oceania Healthcare Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 269M NZD (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Oceania Healthcare Ltd (OCA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Oceania Healthcare Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -8.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OCA use?
Our models discount Oceania Healthcare Ltd at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.61, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Oceania Healthcare Ltd that is -8.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Oceania Healthcare Ltd (OCA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Oceania Healthcare Ltd grew +4.8 % a year. The price currently implies -8.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Oceania Healthcare Ltd (OCA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Oceania Healthcare Ltd (-8.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Oceania Healthcare Ltd (OCA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 26.40 %: that much free cash flow Oceania Healthcare Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Oceania Healthcare Ltd (OCA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Oceania Healthcare Ltd it is A$0.6900 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.5950. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Oceania Healthcare Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, OCA trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.5950, fair value A$0.6900, a gap of about +16% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OCA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.5950); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.6900). For Oceania Healthcare Ltd the two are A$0.0950 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Oceania Healthcare Ltd worth?
The market values Oceania Healthcare Ltd at about A$431M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.5950; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.6900 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OCA?
Our models span a range for Oceania Healthcare Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.5300, base A$0.6900, optimistic A$0.8300 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.5950). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Oceania Healthcare Ltd (OCA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Oceania Healthcare Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 0.0%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OCA from its 52-week high?
Oceania Healthcare Ltd trades at A$0.5950, about 27% below its 52-week high of A$0.8200 and 14% above the low of A$0.5200 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.6900 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Oceania Healthcare Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company,, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Oceania Healthcare Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.5950, calculated fair value A$0.6900 (+16%), Quality Score 48/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OCA calculated?
We run Oceania Healthcare Ltd through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.6900, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Oceania Healthcare Ltd currently trades 16 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Oceania Healthcare Ltd (OCA)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.5950. Our model-based fair value is A$0.6900, about +16% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Oceania Healthcare Ltd right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Oceania Healthcare Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Oceania Healthcare Ltd (OCA)?
The market capitalisation of Oceania Healthcare Ltd is A$431M (≈ $302M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Oceania Healthcare Ltd (OCA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Oceania Healthcare Ltd is 1.67 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Oceania Healthcare Ltd (OCA)?
The net margin of Oceania Healthcare Ltd is 0.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Oceania Healthcare Ltd (OCA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Oceania Healthcare Ltd is 0.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Oceania Healthcare Ltd (OCA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Oceania Healthcare Ltd is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Oceania Healthcare Ltd (OCA)?
The operating margin of Oceania Healthcare Ltd is −6.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Oceania Healthcare Ltd (OCA)?
Revenue at Oceania Healthcare Ltd is growing +7.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Oceania Healthcare Ltd (OCA)?
Earnings per share at Oceania Healthcare Ltd are growing +210% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Oceania Healthcare Ltd (OCA) carry?
The net debt of Oceania Healthcare Ltd is 514M NZD (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 3.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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