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Ocado Group (OCDDY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Ocado Group $7.00, price $6.92, upside +1.2%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Ocado Group
OCDDY · USLow PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.
·Fair value $7.00 · Fairly valued (+1.2%)
!Quality 43/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −10.1 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 29.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 29/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.18 – $58.40 · fair‑value band $5.25 – $10.22 · the $6.92 price screens below the $7.00 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Ocado Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an online grocery retailer in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company operates through Technology Solutions and Logistics segments.
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Ocado Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an online grocery retailer in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company operates through Technology Solutions and Logistics segments. It provides end-to-end online retail and automated storage and retrieval solutions for general merchandise to corporate customers; and Ocado Intelligent Automation that provides automation solutions to sectors outside of grocery retail. The company also provides third-party logistics services through Ocado storage and retrieval system. Ocado Group plc was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Hatfield, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Ocado Group (OCDDY) currently trades at $6.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.00, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $24.43 per share, and 16 of the 21 models we run sit above the $6.92 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.33, and 5 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5.25 (bear) to $10.22 (bull), the price of $6.92 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Ocado Group reported revenue of £1.4B in FY2025 versus £2.5B in FY2021, a compound −14.0%/yr. Reported net income was £401M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.1B · P/S ratio 1.49 · EPS (TTM) $−1.27 · Net margin 29.3% · Return on equity −28.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.5% · Operating margin −14.5% · Revenue (TTM) £1.4B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at 1%, OCDDY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.25
Fair Value $7.00
Bull $10.22
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$7.11
$12.34
$20.20
78
Growth DCF
$7.20
$11.74
$18.08
77
Owner Earnings
$21.23
$34.43
$54.22
75
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$7.11
$12.34
$20.20
78
Owner Earnings
$21.23
$34.43
$54.22
75
5Y Revenue Exit
$3.82
$6.68
$10.25
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$4.35
$7.69
$11.55
74
5Y P/E Exit
$12.68
$23.53
$35.15
69
10Y Revenue Exit
$4.82
$7.72
$11.51
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$5.28
$8.41
$12.50
68
10Y P/E Exit
$10.51
$19.26
$30.39
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$8.68
$29.30
$39.26
64
Lynch FV
$6.69
$9.56
$12.42
61
PEG = 1.0
$6.69
$9.56
$12.42
57
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$20.10
$26.80
$33.50
63
P/S Multiple
$5.22
$6.96
$8.70
58
P/B Multiple
$16.27
$21.69
$27.12
55
EV/EBITDA
$3.42
$5.29
$7.16
66
EV/Revenue
$2.18
$4.05
$5.92
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$2.48
$3.33
$4.97
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$7.20
$11.74
$18.08
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$3.82
$6.76
$10.26
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$7.31
$9.38
$15.74
68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$17.10
$24.43
$31.76
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
43/100
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Profitability
53
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
46
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
40
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
74
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
70
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
61
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
14
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−18.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.1% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.0% (2020) → −13.8% (2025)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in GBP, UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.1% a year for the price and −0.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+7.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−0.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)+0.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)+0.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)+0.7%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Grocery Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loblaw Companies Limited L | C$62.71 | C$44.76 | −29% |
| The Kroger Co KR | $60.79 | $30.42 | −50% |
| Woolworths Group WOW | A$38.35 | A$19.56 | −49% |
| Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V AD | €31.50 | €53.98 | +71% |
| George Weston Limited WN | C$101.21 | C$155.86 | +54% |
| Metro Inc MRU | C$89.95 | C$96.77 | +8% |
| Carrefour SA CA | €15.33 | €20.64 | +35% |
| CP ALL Public Company CPALL | 43.00 THB | 58.21 THB | +35% |
| Kesko Oyj KESKOB | €22.94 | €12.99 | −43% |
| BIM Birlesik Magazalar A.S., BIMAS | 424.75 TRY | 247.71 TRY | −42% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Ocado Group (OCDDY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.00 versus a price of $6.92, about +1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of OCDDY?
Our model-based fair value for Ocado Group is $7.00 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.92.
What is the quality score of OCDDY?
Ocado Group has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ocado Group (OCDDY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.00 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.25, optimistic scenario $10.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ocado Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.00, about +1% upside versus a price of $6.92 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $5.25, optimistic scenario $10.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ocado Group (OCDDY)?
Ocado Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £1.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ocado Group (OCDDY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ocado Group would have to grow free cash flow by +15.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -10.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OCDDY use?
Our models discount Ocado Group at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 2.36, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ocado Group that is +15.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ocado Group (OCDDY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ocado Group grew -10.1 % a year. The price currently implies +15.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ocado Group (OCDDY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ocado Group (+15.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ocado Group (OCDDY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.42 %: that much free cash flow Ocado Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ocado Group (OCDDY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ocado Group it is $7.00 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $6.92. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ocado Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, OCDDY trades below its calculated fair value: price $6.92, fair value $7.00, a gap of about +1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OCDDY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.92); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.00). For Ocado Group the two are $0.0800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ocado Group worth?
The market values Ocado Group at about $3.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $6.92; our models calculate a fair value of $7.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OCDDY?
Our models span a range for Ocado Group: cautious scenario $5.25, base $7.00, optimistic $10.22 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $6.92). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is OCDDY from its 52-week high?
Ocado Group trades at $6.92, about 11% below its 52-week high of $7.78 and 66% above the low of $4.18 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ocado Group?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ocado Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $6.92, calculated fair value $7.00 (+1%), Quality Score 43/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OCDDY calculated?
We run Ocado Group through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Ocado Group currently trades 1 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ocado Group (OCDDY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $6.92. Our model-based fair value is $7.00, about +1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ocado Group right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($5.25 to $10.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Ocado Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Ocado Group (OCDDY)?
The market capitalisation of Ocado Group is $3.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ocado Group (OCDDY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ocado Group is 1.49 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ocado Group (OCDDY)?
Earnings per share at Ocado Group are $−1.27. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ocado Group (OCDDY)?
The net margin of Ocado Group is 29.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ocado Group (OCDDY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ocado Group is −28.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ocado Group (OCDDY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ocado Group is −6.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ocado Group (OCDDY)?
The operating margin of Ocado Group is −14.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ocado Group (OCDDY)?
Revenue at Ocado Group is growing +14.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −18.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Ocado Group (OCDDY) carry?
The net debt of Ocado Group is £1.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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