Oceana (OCE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Oceana ZAR 89.37, price ZAR 64.39, upside +38.8%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R41.67 – R76.49 · fair‑value band R52.26 – R126.48 · the R64.39 price screens below the R89.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Oceana Group Limited operates as a fishing and food processing company in South Africa, Namibia, rest of Africa, North America, Europe, the Far East, and internationally.
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Oceana Group Limited operates as a fishing and food processing company in South Africa, Namibia, rest of Africa, North America, Europe, the Far East, and internationally. It engages in catching, processing, and procuring various marine species, including pilchard, anchovy, redeye herring, Gulf menhaden, lobster, squid, horse mackerel, and hake, as well as processing of meat, chicken, and vegetable products. The company also markets and sells canned fish, fishmeal, and fish oil products, as well as frozen and fresh products. Oceana Group Limited was incorporated in 1918 and is headquartered in Cape Town, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Oceana (OCE) currently trades at R64.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R89.37, implying the stock looks roughly 27.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R103.78 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the R64.39 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at R35.26, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R52.26 (bear) to R126.48 (bull), the price of R64.39 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Oceana reported revenue of 10.0B ZAR in FY2025 versus 7.3B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +8.2%/yr. Reported net income was 674M ZAR in FY2025, compounding −0.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 9.3B ZAC · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 0.74 · EPS (TTM) R5.89 · Dividend yield 4.4% · Net margin 6.7% · Return on equity 9.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at 39%, OCE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R52.26Fair Value R89.37Bull R126.48
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (2.99 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.9% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+7.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1% vs 1%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 13%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 668 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside+39% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.28× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Oceana Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OCE
Frequently asked questions
Is Oceana (OCE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R89.37 versus a price of R64.39, about +39% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of OCE?
Our model-based fair value for Oceana is R89.37 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R64.39.
What is the quality score of OCE?
Oceana has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Oceana (OCE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R89.37 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R52.26, optimistic scenario R126.48. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Oceana stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R89.37, about +39% upside versus a price of R64.39 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R52.26, optimistic scenario R126.48. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Oceana (OCE)?
Oceana reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 9.7B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Oceana pay a dividend?
Oceana currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.43% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Oceana (OCE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Oceana would have to grow free cash flow by +14.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OCE use?
Our models discount Oceana at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.19, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Oceana that is +14.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Oceana (OCE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Oceana grew +3.8 % a year. The price currently implies +14.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Oceana (OCE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Oceana (+14.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Oceana (OCE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.18 %: that much free cash flow Oceana produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Oceana (OCE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Oceana it is R89.37 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R64.39. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Oceana stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, OCE trades below its calculated fair value: price R64.39, fair value R89.37, a gap of about +39% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OCE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R64.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R89.37). For Oceana the two are R24.98 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Oceana worth?
The market values Oceana at about 9.3B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R64.39; our models calculate a fair value of R89.37 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OCE?
Our models span a range for Oceana: cautious scenario R52.26, base R89.37, optimistic R126.48 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R64.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OCE?
Oceana trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R89.37 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 138.2, P/B 1.2, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 7.2.
What is the PEG ratio of OCE?
The PEG ratio of Oceana is 138.24 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Oceana (OCE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Oceana (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.2%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OCE from its 52-week high?
Oceana trades at R64.39, about 12% below its 52-week high of R73.25 and 32% above the low of R48.87 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R89.37 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Oceana?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, The Kraft Heinz Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Oceana stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R64.39, calculated fair value R89.37 (+39%), Quality Score 58/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OCE calculated?
We run Oceana through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R89.37, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Oceana currently trades 39 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Oceana (OCE)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was R64.39. Our model-based fair value is R89.37, about +39% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Oceana right now?
Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (R52.26 to R126.48) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Oceana (OCE) come from?
Earnings per share at Oceana grew +4.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.8 %, EBIT margin −2.7 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Oceana
How large is the market capitalisation of Oceana (OCE)?
The market capitalisation of Oceana is 9.3B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Oceana (OCE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Oceana is 0.74 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Oceana (OCE)?
Earnings per share at Oceana are R5.89 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Oceana (OCE)?
The dividend yield of Oceana is 4.4% (payout 48.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Oceana (OCE)?
The net margin of Oceana is 6.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Oceana (OCE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Oceana is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Oceana (OCE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Oceana is 10.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Oceana (OCE)?
The operating margin of Oceana is 14.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Oceana (OCE)?
Revenue at Oceana is growing −6.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Oceana (OCE)?
Earnings per share at Oceana are growing +12.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Oceana (OCE) carry?
The net debt of Oceana is 2.8B ZAC (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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